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Strange trend for NCAAF: dogs cover on Thursdays, faves any other day not counting Saturday.

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Legend
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Posted: #1
Excluding Saturdays, i remember lots of underdogs covering on Thursdays from last season. Fridays are good for faves. Other days besides Thursdays and Fridays, i don't recall.
 
I'll keep a tab of this for the 2009-10 season.
 
LA Tech looking good at the moment. Hawaii making mistakes on offense and have redzone issues. Not to mention their rush defense is getting gashed.
 
Legend
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Posted: #2
Leaning UAB +10 tomorrow night. Not sure about Colorado.
 
Banned
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Posted: #3
There were several dogs that came in on Tuesday & Wed last year.
 
Legend
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Posted: #4
I think any other weekdays are 50/50 but i do recall...
 
Thursdays = dogs
 
Fridays = faves
 
We'll see how it goes this season.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane:

I think any other weekdays are 50/50 but i do recall...
 
Thursdays = dogs
 
Fridays = faves
 
We'll see how it goes this season.

 

I'd rather go w/ your Ratings

 
Captain
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Posted: #6
Thursday home dogs= BIG
 
Captain
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane:

I think any other weekdays are 50/50 but i do recall...
 
Thursdays = dogs
 
Fridays = faves
 
We'll see how it goes this season.

is this one of your tools in capping?

 
Veteran
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Posted: #8
last year Thurs nite dogs were 8 or 9 out of 12.
if my so called memory serves correctly.
so you are correct.

 
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Posted: #9
This is what makes tonight game such a tough call.  Dogs did well on Thursday night, but so did home teams.  While Dawg is correct, the dogs covered something like 70-75% of the time, a lot of those were home dogs, because the home team also covered much of the time.  Right now my lean is Colorado +17.5.
 
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Posted: #10
There was an article on covers today talking about how home teams went 12-3 ats on Thursday last year. So that seems like it's more important than whether it's a fav or dog.
 
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Posted: #11
2009 Current THURSDAY NIGHT (ESPN TV) RECORDS
 
 
9/3: Road FAV -7 Boise @ Oregon 19-8 UNDER 64
 
9/10: Road DOG +5 Clemson @ GT 27-30 OVER 43
 
9/17: Home FAV -5 Miami vs. GT 33-17 UNDER 54
 
9/24: Home DOG +5 South Carolina 16-10 UNDER 52
 
HOME TEAMS
SU: 3-1
ATS: 2-2
 
UNDER: 3-1
 
Veteran
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Posted: #12
2009 Current FRIDAY NIGHT (ESPN TV) RECORDS
 
9/4: HOME FAV Tulsa -14 vs. Tulane 37-13 UNDER 64
 
9/11: HOME DOG Toledo +4 vs. Colorado 54-38 OVER 55
 
9/18: ROAD FAV Boise St. -9 @ Fresnot St. 51-34 OVER 53
 
9/25: ROAD FAV Mizou -7 @ Nevada 31-21 UNDER 61
 
HOME TEAMS
SU: 2-2
ATS: 2-2
 
O/U: 2-2
 
Legend
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Posted: #13
RobbingHomers - Thanks for the work.
 
Yes. We'll also have to keep a tab on what channel also.
 
Some people will not take a dog that is not televised on ESPN.
 
But... i still love UAB tonight.
 
Legend
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Booshasta:

is this one of your tools in capping?

I'm not the only one that is NOT UNAWARE of this trend.

But the answer to your question is NO.

 
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Posted: #15
i don't like when too many people start falling in love with the Thurs night home dog... one thing i've learned about this trend is most people are usually on the road favorite, and once they start to switch over and ride the trend, the bandwagon breaks down... and then they all jump off again for a few weeks...
 
hoping tonight isn't the night the wheels fall off, but i gotta ride the train anyway...
 
and Happy... i have also been betting Friday favorites since late last year when i started noticing this... not sure what to make of it, but it seems to work...
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND!!!!!!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
Guys--
Take the Thursday night home team on ESPN without hesitation.  Tonight's game is not a great example, but look at last week.  the road team favored on a short week goes into a crazy place where the kids are going nuts.  if you go back and look at last year, the home team dog's money line was 6-0.  here are the facts running over the last 3 years...2009 not included...yet.
3 Year Running Total Home Team ESPN3 Year Running Total Home Favorites3 Year Running Total Home Dogs
28-9 75.6 Win Percentage
11-6 64.7 Win Percentage
16-3 84.2 Win Percentage

do what you want with this information, but this is what this forum is for...good shit like this.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
2008----Road Dogs on Thursday
 
SU: 4-20-0 (-16.0)
ATS: 8-15-1 (-3.2) avg line: 12.8
 
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
w.vir  has had 10 to in the last 2 games dominate auburn an lost by 11 dominate e. car an  gave up 20 pts an still pulled . w.vir d has been solid but you cant give a short field to anyone 5 times a game an them not score
 
All-Star
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Posted: #20
look at last years game colorado won against wva when they had a better qb (pat white), how can anyone want to lay 16.5 its all about match ups no one will be surprising anyone tonight.
 
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Posted: #21
Turnovers ARE the key to WVU covering tonight. If they don't turn it over; it could get ugly for Colorado.
 
Legend
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Posted: #22
Yeah, yeah. Colorado is negative in the turnover margin but W.Vir. is worse in that department.
 
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #23
Happy Kane....good luck tonight
 
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Posted: #24
Kane: what are you seeing? i have been playing softball so just got back to the house!
 
 
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Posted: #25
Over the last 5 years, all underdogs on Thursday night are 89-80-5 (52.6%)

In that same time frame, home dogs on Thursday nights are 29-18-1 (61.7%).

Thursday night home dogs are the trend. 


There's no strong trend for favorites on Fridays over the last 5 years.  The record for favorites is 68-57-2 (54.4%).
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