SYSYEMS PLAYS/NOT MINES

stil perfect with ncaa 4-0, 80% in all of football
the system i am looking at this week says...
favorites of less than 24 after a dog win are 180-276 ats in games #5 to #9 if their opponent won more than 1/3 of their games...several teams fit the system but i will only focus on those games where the underdog is not in a bad situation...i.e. pittsburgh fits the sys but rutgers won a big one too last week, as well as arkansas where auburn is off of a big win. there is also wmu but i will not take bgr in their third straight road contest, right before their big rivalery game against toledo. so, the game i am looking at is tol/emu.

toledo upset temple on the road last week, they played syracuse in ot the week before, and had two more emotional games against boise and ohio state. this team is probably extremely tired, both physically and emotionally. and next week they have their big rivalery game against bowling green. usually they play bowling green in one of their last two games but this season they played them early and thats why the look ahead factor is very possible (see illinois against wmu before playing nwestern this season). toledo defense spent 34 minutes on the field last week, played ot the week before, and spent another 35 minutes on the field against boise. they scored 36 pts on only 12 first downs against temple, as temple was not focused at all after their big win against maryland. 14 toledo points came off of temple mistakes. emu is a team that relies heavilly on their run game, they are doing it rather well, and they do everything slowly on offense, and that is why they have been able to cover both at psu and at michigan. i am taking eastern michigan +21 buy 0.5

looking at some other systems...will update

ok here is the 2nd system i am looking at this week...
unbeaten teams 5-0 or better after a non covering home win are 69-108 ats if they were favored by 5 or more in that win. and if they won by 26 or less they are 52-97 ats. two teams are in that situation this week but i will fade only one at it is illinois.

illinois got a close win last week against northwestern after trailing by double digits in 4th quarter and it was also a rivalery game for them. usually they play nortwestern at the end of the season so the letdown is usually not a factor as their next game is usually a bowl game. but this time they have just a week after their rivalery game and the letdown possibility is big. they lost 5 straight regular season games after playing northwestern and they are also 0-5 ats last 5 as favorites in regular season after playing northwestern. next game they play ohio state, and while ohio state is not very good this season, it is stil a huge game for illinois as they lost three straight and eight in a row at home against the buckeyes. last 3 seasons they were favored before the ohst game and they went 0-3 ats. finally, the illi/ind series is a series where the home team covered 7 of last 9 and 10 of last 14. another interesting info about this series is that in this series the home team is 10-0 su and 9-0-1 ats if losing previous game as well as 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS if looking for revenge. play #2 is indiana +17 buy 0.5