The fact is that I love match-ups like this because, from having a good knowledge of both teams, the odds makers tell us everything else we need to know! Just take a look at this line. Earlier this week we saw lines as high as -3 on TCU and the Horned Frogs did open up as the favorite in this game. Think about that for a moment. Utah is at home, these teams are roughly equal in the rankings, the Utes beat TCU last year (and have won four of the last five meetings), and yet the Horned Frogs are favored! That should tell you something right here. There is absolutely a reason that TCU is favored on the road for this game. They are the superior team and they certainly have already been battle tested this season!
The only loss that the Horned Frogs had this season was at Oklahoma and there is not a lot of shame in losing to the Sooners in their back yard. This is especially true when you consider how that game played out. The Horned Frogs were done in by turnovers and mistakes. The fact is they ended up with just one less first down than Oklahoma had in that game but, time after time, the Horned Frogs would drive into Sooners territory only to come up empty-handed. TCU got some good ?battle scars? from that game and that will help them to perform even better at Utah tonight. I saw the benefits of the growth that TCU had after the Oklahoma loss as, when they hosted BYU in mid-October, the Horned Frogs absolutely pounded the Cougars. Keep in mind that, even with playing two teams ranked in the top ten when they faced them, the Horned Frogs full season stats are amazing. They?ve averaged 224 yards per game on the ground while holding their opponents to just 39 rushing yards per game. That is simply phenomenal. Also, the passing game of TCU has emerged as sophomore QB Andy Dalton seems like a new quarterback after coming back from the injury he suffered at Oklahoma earlier this season. Dalton has thrown for 9 touchdowns and no interceptions in the three games he played since he came back!
Utah?s offense is ?hit or miss? in my opinion. Yes, they?ve put together some impressive full season statistics but I?ve seen QB Brian Johnson look awful shaky at times. The Utes were VERY fortunate to get the win over Oregon State earlier this season and that game was at home for Utah. In fact, the only tough games the Utes have really played have seen them struggle just to win. Utah?s toughest games were at Michigan, at Air Force, versus Oregon State, and at New Mexico. The end result of those four games was four tight wins by an average margin of 3.75 points per victory! None of those four teams is anywhere close to the caliber of this TCU team and, unlike the Horned Frogs, the Utes haven?t yet faced elite competition this season. While TCU has already gone toe to toe with Brigham Young and Oklahoma, the Utes are facing their toughest test yet this season. Also, while the Horned Frogs have a running game edge of 224 to 39 on the season, Utah?s edge is a much tighter 185 to 90. You can plainly see who should be able to run the ball tonight and who may struggle. I also trust Dalton more at QB for the Horned Frogs than I trust Johnson for the Utes. Look for Dalton and the Horned Frogs to make up for last season?s loss to Utah. The Frogs held the Utes to 227 yards in that game but still lost 27 to 20. Tonight?s it?s payback and I`m there!
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