I'm moving these plays over from my final couple of posts last night in the Week 13 thread. Also, I should preface this week 14 thread by saying that its difficult to share plays this week since many of them are based on my to-date position on conference futures, but I will still put some thoughts up. And I will have FCS playoff plays whenever available this week.
Week 14 Locked In:
Michigan / Iowa Under 34.5 -110 (0.5u) & Under 35.5 -108 (BR) (0.16u) -- (combined 0.66u)
Appalachian State +7 -115 (0.4u) (FD) & just bumped this to 0.6u overall, still +7 -115 at FD.
SMU +4 -110 (0.25u) (BOL)
Added: UNLV +3.5 -115 (0.2u) (FD) I am a little bit leery of Barry Odom being considered for other jobs, but I think they can finish strong.
Miami (OH) +8.5 -110 (0.2u) (FD)..... would make a larger play, but already have MAC futures that need Miami (OH) more so than Toledo.
For Week 15 Locked In:
Navy / Army Under 32.5 -110 (0.3u) (FD)
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I'm moving these plays over from my final couple of posts last night in the Week 13 thread. Also, I should preface this week 14 thread by saying that its difficult to share plays this week since many of them are based on my to-date position on conference futures, but I will still put some thoughts up. And I will have FCS playoff plays whenever available this week.
Week 14 Locked In:
Michigan / Iowa Under 34.5 -110 (0.5u) & Under 35.5 -108 (BR) (0.16u) -- (combined 0.66u)
Appalachian State +7 -115 (0.4u) (FD) & just bumped this to 0.6u overall, still +7 -115 at FD.
SMU +4 -110 (0.25u) (BOL)
Added: UNLV +3.5 -115 (0.2u) (FD) I am a little bit leery of Barry Odom being considered for other jobs, but I think they can finish strong.
Miami (OH) +8.5 -110 (0.2u) (FD)..... would make a larger play, but already have MAC futures that need Miami (OH) more so than Toledo.
whoa, hit the max characters limit and have to copy/paste this into like three posts:
......Other stuff, for what it's worth:
-- I have a small 0.25u ticket on New Mexico State +14 -110 from 11/12/23 when the matchup for CUSA title game was locked in. The Auburn upset since then lowered the line, but I would still take +11 -110 (DK) or +10.5 (most other shops) today for a small play.
--MAC conference: I've already won 0.35u on Miami to win the MAC East at +350, but my preseason "eliminate the favorite" approach to win the entire conference may not work out so well with Toledo still on top. I also have Miami (OH) +850 to win the MAC (risk 0.1u to win 0.85u), Ohio U. to win MAC tickets lose 0.12u, and a free play on NIU to win the league did not pan out. I went to add Toledo to win the MAC a few weeks back at -150 I think it was, but I wanted to check my spreadsheet for what amount I should put down, by the time I did this, the Tuesday MACtion had started and the futures were off the board. I settled for a small ticket on Toledo at -220 (0.22u to win 0.1u) the following week. All that said, if Miami (OH) wins the MAC title game, then +0.51u for the Conf title plays. If Toledo wins the MAC title game, then net -0.12u (covered by the +0.35u on MAC east is fine with me).
--Big 12 conference: I took Texas +100 preseason (0.25u), but I didn't like those odds so I added 6 small plays at much better odds all on Texas to win vs. a specific league opponent (0.32u combined). Do you think I included Oklahoma State in those 6 plays!? Nope - I had Oklahoma State as a fade team in the preseason. After the Oklahoma loss, I came back with one more Texas to win B12 ticket at +125 (risk 0.16u). Also had a long shot Kansas +5000 ticket from the preseason (risk 0.1u). Later in the year I added Kansas State +600 (risk 0.12u to win 0.72u) and Oklahoma State +1800 (risk 0.04u to win 0.72u). Overall situation is if Texas wins I am just over +0.16u, minus the -0.32u on the matchup plays, so -0.16u net. If Oklahoma State wins I am +0.09u, minus the -0.32u on the matchup plays, so -0.23 net. I don't have a feel for the side & total at this time. Time will tell if I get involved there.
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whoa, hit the max characters limit and have to copy/paste this into like three posts:
......Other stuff, for what it's worth:
-- I have a small 0.25u ticket on New Mexico State +14 -110 from 11/12/23 when the matchup for CUSA title game was locked in. The Auburn upset since then lowered the line, but I would still take +11 -110 (DK) or +10.5 (most other shops) today for a small play.
--MAC conference: I've already won 0.35u on Miami to win the MAC East at +350, but my preseason "eliminate the favorite" approach to win the entire conference may not work out so well with Toledo still on top. I also have Miami (OH) +850 to win the MAC (risk 0.1u to win 0.85u), Ohio U. to win MAC tickets lose 0.12u, and a free play on NIU to win the league did not pan out. I went to add Toledo to win the MAC a few weeks back at -150 I think it was, but I wanted to check my spreadsheet for what amount I should put down, by the time I did this, the Tuesday MACtion had started and the futures were off the board. I settled for a small ticket on Toledo at -220 (0.22u to win 0.1u) the following week. All that said, if Miami (OH) wins the MAC title game, then +0.51u for the Conf title plays. If Toledo wins the MAC title game, then net -0.12u (covered by the +0.35u on MAC east is fine with me).
--Big 12 conference: I took Texas +100 preseason (0.25u), but I didn't like those odds so I added 6 small plays at much better odds all on Texas to win vs. a specific league opponent (0.32u combined). Do you think I included Oklahoma State in those 6 plays!? Nope - I had Oklahoma State as a fade team in the preseason. After the Oklahoma loss, I came back with one more Texas to win B12 ticket at +125 (risk 0.16u). Also had a long shot Kansas +5000 ticket from the preseason (risk 0.1u). Later in the year I added Kansas State +600 (risk 0.12u to win 0.72u) and Oklahoma State +1800 (risk 0.04u to win 0.72u). Overall situation is if Texas wins I am just over +0.16u, minus the -0.32u on the matchup plays, so -0.16u net. If Oklahoma State wins I am +0.09u, minus the -0.32u on the matchup plays, so -0.23 net. I don't have a feel for the side & total at this time. Time will tell if I get involved there.
--ACC conference: I found a great price in the preseason on Florida State at +200 and have 0.4u to win 0.8u. Also have Clemson +155 (0.2u to win 0.31u) and Louisville +1400 (0.04u to win 0.56u). ...... Recently, once the conference title game lines came out I took best available ML on Louisville +185 (risk 0.2u to win 0.37u) to ensure I come out ahead on this conference. Overall +0.36u if FSU wins and +0.33u if Louisville wins.
--SEC conference:
I took a long shot on Kentucky to win the SEC East +8000 (0.4u to win 32u). Later I ended up with tickets on Georgia and others. Without going into detail, I lost 0.39u here. Kentucky started strong like I expected, but QB Devin Leary never really looked as good as I expected and seemed to be playing hurt or something, just looked off a lot. Glad they got the upset yesterday to hit their regular season win total over 6.5, but SEC conference futures alone were a loss this year. I have not looked at the Georgia vs. Alabama side and total yet much. Not much feel there for me.
I won't get into FBS and FCS championship futures in great detail, but those look "just ok" for FBS and may need some more plays to combat my current positions once we have playoff pairings. The FCS championship future plays (DK) are a little more optimistic and it would be best for me if South Dakota State (heavy favorite) repeats as champs because I took them at better odds in the preseason.
Thanks for letting me vent, folks,..... I didn't really plan on writing so much, but actually had the time today with the long weekend and less results to go through than a typical Saturday night / Sunday morning.
Cheers to all, and enjoy the conference title games this weekend!
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--ACC conference: I found a great price in the preseason on Florida State at +200 and have 0.4u to win 0.8u. Also have Clemson +155 (0.2u to win 0.31u) and Louisville +1400 (0.04u to win 0.56u). ...... Recently, once the conference title game lines came out I took best available ML on Louisville +185 (risk 0.2u to win 0.37u) to ensure I come out ahead on this conference. Overall +0.36u if FSU wins and +0.33u if Louisville wins.
--SEC conference:
I took a long shot on Kentucky to win the SEC East +8000 (0.4u to win 32u). Later I ended up with tickets on Georgia and others. Without going into detail, I lost 0.39u here. Kentucky started strong like I expected, but QB Devin Leary never really looked as good as I expected and seemed to be playing hurt or something, just looked off a lot. Glad they got the upset yesterday to hit their regular season win total over 6.5, but SEC conference futures alone were a loss this year. I have not looked at the Georgia vs. Alabama side and total yet much. Not much feel there for me.
I won't get into FBS and FCS championship futures in great detail, but those look "just ok" for FBS and may need some more plays to combat my current positions once we have playoff pairings. The FCS championship future plays (DK) are a little more optimistic and it would be best for me if South Dakota State (heavy favorite) repeats as champs because I took them at better odds in the preseason.
Thanks for letting me vent, folks,..... I didn't really plan on writing so much, but actually had the time today with the long weekend and less results to go through than a typical Saturday night / Sunday morning.
Cheers to all, and enjoy the conference title games this weekend!
Yep, saw that this morning. Those trigger happy numbers guys (like me) can be pretty f’cking sloppy on Sundays when it comes to new injuries. I saw it a few hours ago; checked lines and saw some 4s and even 3.5s and thought I’d be fine. Problem is I can’t get down until a lunch break and then I did that much later than usual today. I just found one -4.5 and bought it to -4 -130 to get out for now. Will set me back about -0.08u. All 5/5.5 elsewhere. Will probably come back and play it at around 7.5 if/when it gets there as you said. Or just wait until in-game might be another strategy after eating that juice.
Good luck this week!
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@bookieassassin
Yep, saw that this morning. Those trigger happy numbers guys (like me) can be pretty f’cking sloppy on Sundays when it comes to new injuries. I saw it a few hours ago; checked lines and saw some 4s and even 3.5s and thought I’d be fine. Problem is I can’t get down until a lunch break and then I did that much later than usual today. I just found one -4.5 and bought it to -4 -130 to get out for now. Will set me back about -0.08u. All 5/5.5 elsewhere. Will probably come back and play it at around 7.5 if/when it gets there as you said. Or just wait until in-game might be another strategy after eating that juice.
I'm a little slow to realize these boys are supposedly on the outside looking in and should try to hammer their opponent..... I don't know why, but I can't see FSU getting in at all. Doesn't seem fair, but would they really put them in over Texas if they barely beat Louisville.
Week 14:
Michigan / Iowa Under 34.5 -110 (0.5u) & Under 35.5 -108 (0.16u) -- (combined 0.66u)
Appalachian State +7 -115 (0.6u)
Added: Texas -13.5 -129 (risk 0.5u to win 0.39u)
SMU +4 -110 (0.25u) & as mentioned above bought out with Tulane -4 -130 (risking just under 0.36u to win 0.275u)
UNLV +3.5 -115 (0.2u)
Miami (OH) +8.5 -110 (0.2u)
Week 15:
Navy / Army Under 32.5 -110 (0.3u)
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I'm a little slow to realize these boys are supposedly on the outside looking in and should try to hammer their opponent..... I don't know why, but I can't see FSU getting in at all. Doesn't seem fair, but would they really put them in over Texas if they barely beat Louisville.
Week 14:
Michigan / Iowa Under 34.5 -110 (0.5u) & Under 35.5 -108 (0.16u) -- (combined 0.66u)
Appalachian State +7 -115 (0.6u)
Added: Texas -13.5 -129 (risk 0.5u to win 0.39u)
SMU +4 -110 (0.25u) & as mentioned above bought out with Tulane -4 -130 (risking just under 0.36u to win 0.275u)
Miss ya man! You’re a phenomenal access to knowledge of college football.
I have a Conference Futures Round Robin and Parlay in 2’s all the way to 6’s that was placed after Week 6.
Florida State
Tulane
Michigan
Texas
Georgia
Washington
Troy
What are your thoughts on Washington Oregon? I love the Huskies but unfortunately my head says Oregon can win this one huge. I do however believe in my heart that Washington can spread them out and take advantage of an average secondary with good weather to throw. Washington can run the ball and play better defense as well the last few weeks. Do you think Washington wins/covers/both?
This RR pays $27K if all 7 teams win! 6 of them are favorites. Would GREATLY APPRECIATE your opinion. Hope all is well.
The Moose
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@bookieassassin
Bookie,
Miss ya man! You’re a phenomenal access to knowledge of college football.
I have a Conference Futures Round Robin and Parlay in 2’s all the way to 6’s that was placed after Week 6.
Florida State
Tulane
Michigan
Texas
Georgia
Washington
Troy
What are your thoughts on Washington Oregon? I love the Huskies but unfortunately my head says Oregon can win this one huge. I do however believe in my heart that Washington can spread them out and take advantage of an average secondary with good weather to throw. Washington can run the ball and play better defense as well the last few weeks. Do you think Washington wins/covers/both?
This RR pays $27K if all 7 teams win! 6 of them are favorites. Would GREATLY APPRECIATE your opinion. Hope all is well.
I’m glad you mentioned it. Keep that insider info coming.
And are you telling me I should queue the AC/DC music for I’ve got big balls!? …. Definitely sloppy this season more than once is my own opinion on a few injuries. It didn’t bite me too bad either time, and it’s somewhat part of the M.O. with being so aggressive with openers, just goes with the territory that it can really help with CLV or it can really hurt, like this case. But which of those +/- cases will happen more often is how I look at it.
so what’s on your priority list right now? Getting prepared for bowls and ready to tell me which teams are highly motivated and which are not at all?? I’m ready for some BA bowl insight in the near future. Let’s go!
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@bookieassassin
I’m glad you mentioned it. Keep that insider info coming.
And are you telling me I should queue the AC/DC music for I’ve got big balls!? …. Definitely sloppy this season more than once is my own opinion on a few injuries. It didn’t bite me too bad either time, and it’s somewhat part of the M.O. with being so aggressive with openers, just goes with the territory that it can really help with CLV or it can really hurt, like this case. But which of those +/- cases will happen more often is how I look at it.
so what’s on your priority list right now? Getting prepared for bowls and ready to tell me which teams are highly motivated and which are not at all?? I’m ready for some BA bowl insight in the near future. Let’s go!
My quick 2 cents of which dogs to watch out for and consider hedging some are App State for sure and I’d say next to consider is Oregon and Louisville.
We’ll see what BA has to say.
Good luck!
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@Moose1986
My quick 2 cents of which dogs to watch out for and consider hedging some are App State for sure and I’d say next to consider is Oregon and Louisville.
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Cheers to all, and enjoy the conference title games this weekend!
…. Definitely sloppy this season more than once is my own opinion on a few injuries. It didn’t bite me too bad either time, and it’s somewhat part of the M.O. with being so aggressive with openers, just goes with the territory that it can really help with CLV or it can really hurt, like this case. But which of those +/- cases will happen more often is how I look at it.
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