TD Week 2

Some Week 2 lines are out at one shop....

Locked In:

Michigan State / Maryland Under 47.5 -110 (1u)

Georgia Tech -2.5 -108 (0.5u)

Duke / Northwestern Under 42.5 -110 (0.5u)

Utah -15.5 -110 (0.5u)

Week 2:

Michigan State / Maryland Under 47.5 -110 (1u)

Utah -15.5 -110 (bumped to 1u)

Georgia Tech -2.5 -108 (0.5u)

Duke / Northwestern Under 42.5 -110 (0.5u)

Added: Bowling Green +29.5 -110 (0.5u)

Added: Northern Illinois +25.5 -110 (0.5u)

And as mentioned in my Week 0/1 thread in the early summer I took a few positions on Texas over Michigan.  FWIW, Texas -2.5 -117, Texas -3 -104, Texas -3 -109, Texas -3.5 -108 (combined 1.6u) and Texas ML -148 (0.28u)

Added: EMU / UW Under 51.5 -110 (1u)

With you on the Texas pick, any thoughts on Tenn -4.5 vs the Wolfpack?

I think TX and TN are heavy bets of mine next week.  Even if the line moved 3 points against me before my book is open tonight, I will still make both of these 3-4 units for me---TN may be higher based on my instinct.  Wolfpack looked weak on both sides of the ball, while Vols have improved their defense this year.  Early call, I see Texas by 2 TDs+ and TN 4 TDs+ with high confidence.  You need to know, I really don't care for either of these teams, especially the Hillbillies so this isn't homer-ism talking.  I will bet with confidence on these two, might should bet only on these two.  I am trying to focus on a few solid plays this years, not 10 or so.  Not a hard rule but looking at 5 or less.  First try yesterday was 4-0, three unders and one one favorite against the line...need to keep this streak/strategy going!!  Good luck to all.

Good luck TD.  

@GuruGambler2001

Personally I lean NC State if it hits +7.5, but I am a bit of a Doeren homer.  I think they were looking ahead and turned it on 4th qtr vs. WCU when they needed to.  In Charlotte, they will play hard in this matchup.  Tennessee D-line is solid, but that secondary is a concern if the opponent can get some passes off without pressure.  Another thing to consider is it should be a back & forth game and there should be a lot in-game betting opportunities on both sides.  If you like Tennessee and there is one shop still at GOTY -4.5, I would take it now because you won't see a better pre-game line than that to back Tennessee.  I would not lay -4.5 myself, just saying if you like it, that's the best number you're going to get until in-game.

@D-Town

Thanks D-Town.  Sorry if I missed a response to you in the last thread.  Good luck to you as well!    

Whoops, got a little jumpy in the wee hours of the morning betting those MAC teams....  better lines available today on those two games; somewhat reluctantly I've added to my original position.  I like the new plays, just don't want too many units on these plays overall relative to the full card.

Week 2:

Michigan State / Maryland Under 47.5 -110 (1u)

Utah -15.5 -110 (1u)

EMU / UW Under 51.5 -110 (1u)

Bowling Green +29.5 -110 (0.5u) & Added BG +32 -110 (0.2u)  (0.7u overall)

Northern Illinois +25.5 -110 (0.5u) & Added NIU +29.5 -110 (0.2u)  (0.7u overall)

Georgia Tech -2.5 -108 (0.5u)

Duke / Northwestern Under 42.5 -110 (0.5u)

Added:  Tulsa / Arkansas State Over 62.5 -110 (0.5u)

Added:  Arkansas State -6 -110 (0.5u)

Added:  Sam Houston +25 -110 (0.5u)

Added:  Cincinnati -2.5 -115 (0.4u)

Added:  East Carolina +3 -115 (0.4u)

where is TN-4.5

@UGACLP1995

BetRivers still had their Game of the Year -4.5 up through the night and into this morning, but I just re-checked and they are now at -6.5 like everyone else.  So the answer is nowhere at this time.

One more for now.....

Week 2:

Michigan State / Maryland Under 47.5 -110 (1u)

Utah -15.5 -110 (1u)

EMU / UW Under 51.5 -110 (1u)

Bowling Green +29.5 -110 (0.5u) & +32 -110 (0.2u)  (0.7u overall)

Northern Illinois +25.5 -110 (0.5u) & +29.5 -110 (0.2u)  (0.7u overall)

Georgia Tech -2.5 -108 (0.5u)

Duke / Northwestern Under 42.5 -110 (0.5u)

Tulsa / Arkansas State Over 62.5 -110 (0.5u)

Arkansas State -6 -110 (0.5u)

Sam Houston +25 -110 (0.5u)

Added:  Nevada +5 -110 (0.5u)

Cincinnati -2.5 -115 (0.4u)

East Carolina +3 -115 (0.4u)

Any thoughts on Colorado/Nebraska? 

Great job last week TD 

@joejoe41189

I need to look into it some more, but what I think I think (Peter King reference there) is I’d lean toward Nebraska-6.5 if still available.  Nebraska D-line should borderline manhandle Colorado O-line.  I need to refresh my memory on what Nebraska brings back in the secondary to fully answer this, but that’s my initial gut reaction lean.  Sorry, in the middle of nowhere this afternoon.  When I return to civilization I’ll look into this a little better.

@joejoe41189

I need to look into it some more, but what I think I think (Peter King reference there) is I’d lean toward Nebraska-6.5 if still available.  Nebraska D-line should borderline manhandle Colorado O-line.  I need to refresh my memory on what Nebraska brings back in the secondary to fully answer this, but that’s my initial gut reaction lean.  Sorry, in the middle of nowhere this afternoon.  When I return to civilization I’ll look into this a little better.

@joejoe41189

I need to look into it some more, but what I think I think (Peter King reference there) is I’d lean toward Nebraska-6.5 if still available.  Nebraska D-line should borderline manhandle Colorado O-line.  I need to refresh my memory on what Nebraska brings back in the secondary to fully answer this, but that’s my initial gut reaction lean.  Sorry, in the middle of nowhere this afternoon.  When I return to civilization I’ll look into this a little better.

@JEFFMARKETCAP

Thanks Jeff, it was pretty good overall.  I'll take it after a not so great start in Week 0.  Hope you had a good start to the season!  

The dreaded triple post this afternoon when I had minimal internet connectivity..... sorry about that.  After further review, I'm in for a small play on Nebraska.  Give me the Polar Bear!

Week 2:

Michigan State / Maryland Under 47.5 -110 (1u)

Utah -15.5 -110 (1u)

EMU / UW Under 51.5 -110 (1u)

Bowling Green +29.5 -110 (0.5u) & +32 -110 (0.2u)  (0.7u overall)

Northern Illinois +25.5 -110 (0.5u) & +29.5 -110 (0.2u)  (0.7u overall)

Georgia Tech -2.5 -108 (0.5u)

Duke / Northwestern Under 42.5 -110 (0.5u)

Tulsa / Arkansas State Over 62.5 -110 (0.5u)

Arkansas State -6 -110 (0.5u)

Sam Houston +25 -110 (0.5u)

Nevada +5 -110 (0.5u)

Cincinnati -2.5 -115 (0.4u)

East Carolina +3 -115 (0.4u)

Added:  Jacksonville State +28 -110 (0.4u)  (BOL best number available)

Added:  Nebraska -6.5 -109 (0.28u is all I can get at this number)  (BR best number available)

Is it possible that you include rotation numbers. And also Any worry that 

309 Bowling Green +35

314 Cincinnati -1

330 Utah -15

335 N. Illinois +30

these moved against you ?

Was thinking about playing Utah too. Strange I saw it open at 17 at multiple books, and today was at 14 for a while. 

@MrFreedo

From what I’ve seen it went from -15.5 to -17 and now back down.  I see the two injuries on defense, but those don’t scare me off at all for this particular matchup.  I don’t think much of Baylor this year.  It is technically a non league game, but I still think Utah rolls.

In fact, just added another 0.5u on Utah -13.5 -115 (0.5u) at BAS.  And -14 -105 is also available there.  Just buying the win if it lands at 14.

@TD21

Right on. I just fired on -14 (-109). I agree with you on Baylor this year being crap. Go Utes!

bol this weekend 

@Nflmaestro

 Short answers are no & no, not really.  Most of the lines moved in my favor, but yes those 4 did not.  In my best Forrest Gump voice, "it happens".

There's lots of websites out there with rotation numbers.  Here's one, but I'm not going to post with rotation numbers.

https://madduxsports.com/college-football-lines.php

Out of those 4 games I probably should have run the numbers a little better on the Pitt / Cinci game, but I am fine with the original play.  Pitt & Cinci will trade scores with each other, so there should also be some in-game opportunities there on either side.  Pitt with the back yard brawl game vs. WVU on deck, not sure how much they care about this one on the road with that home game on deck, but they should be able to score some points on Cinci's defense.  I just think Cinci will put up more points as well.

And I probably should have known better on the lines moves for those MAC games, but that's ok.  I'm good with both plays.  Not a good spot for ND, and I think NIU D-line can hold their own relatively speaking.  BGSU I make closer to +24,..... throw in the late garbage time score by Franklin and call it +31, so yeah +35 feels like too many.  Scot is a U of M guy that at his core wants to run the ball, play ball control and strong defense.  I think it will feel like a slugfest style game for a little while and then PSU will pull away eventually.  Might look at PSU in-game if BG can hang in there for awhile.

Triple post, In the middle of nowhere, and the dreaded bad internet connection. Must have been near me! 

GL TD and thanks for opening my eyes to the Duke/NW Under. Went right past that one.