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TD Week 3

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Posted: #26

...and his kid was the first Philly Phanatic.  So there's that.

 
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Posted: #27
Before you bet WVU watch the NCST offense.... I believe that Ryan Finley and his supporting cast is the best group in college football,,

Nobody mentions Finley, probably because hes a grad transfer from Boise St.  I;m not sure exactly whay WVU does better than NC STATe or why so many ppl are on the mountaineers
 
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Posted: #28

I will fade NM State every week until I see some sort of life from the offense....

Pura Vida
 
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Posted: #29

Added Totals:

CMU / NIU Under 45 (1.5u)

LSU / Auburn Under 45 (1u)

BC / WF Under 50 (0.5u), U52.5 -105 (0.25u), U52 (0.25u) — (1u overall)

Marshall / South Carolina Under 50.5 (0.75u)

 
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Posted: #30
hey td....what about asu/sdst u46.5....basically two SDSt defenses...mirror images.....i see a game 20-16 kinda game. 
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by puffkit:

hey td....what about asu/sdst u46.5....basically two SDSt defenses...mirror images.....i see a game 20-16 kinda game. 

puffkit, looks pretty tempting based on how both teams have played thus far.  Each team will be challenged to beat the opposing defense using the passing game.  SDSU QB Chapman is out as well.

.... Going to think it over some more.
 
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Posted: #32
Updated card:

Week 3:
Miami -8 (1.5u)
New Mexico -7 -105  (1u) &  -6 -105 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
CMU / NIU Under 45  (1.5u)
Oklahoma -13  (1u)
Alabama -21  -105  (0.5u)  & -19 (0.5u)  -- (1u overall)
LSU / Auburn Under 45  (1u)
BC / WF Under 50 (0.5u), U52.5 -105 (0.25u), U52 (0.25u) --(1u overall)
Boston College -1  (0.75u)
Appalachian State -13.5  (0.75u)
Marshall / South Carolina Under 50.5 (0.75u)
Central Michigan +14 (0.3u)  & +16 -105 (0.2u) -- (0.5u overall)
Ball State +14.5  (0.5u)
Added:  UNI / Iowa Under 45

College Extra:
Added:  Northern Arizona -6

 
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Posted: #33
One more for now....

Week 3:
Miami -8 (1.5u)
New Mexico -7 -105  (1u) &  -6 -105 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
CMU / NIU Under 45  (1.5u)
Oklahoma -13  (1u)
Alabama -21  -105  (0.5u)  & -19 (0.5u)  -- (1u overall)
LSU / Auburn Under 45  (1u)
BC / WF Under 50 (0.5u), U52.5 -105 (0.25u), U52 (0.25u) --(1u overall)
Boston College -1  (0.75u)
Appalachian State -13.5  (0.75u)
Marshall / South Carolina Under 50.5 (0.75u)
Central Michigan +14 (0.3u)  & +16 -105 (0.2u) -- (0.5u overall)
Ball State +14.5  (0.5u)
UNI / Iowa Under 45

College Extra:
Northern Arizona -6
Added:  Samford -9.5


 
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Posted: #34
Bumping the LSU / Auburn Total play:

Week 3:
Miami -8 (1.5u)
New Mexico -7 -105  (1u) &  -6 -105 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
CMU / NIU Under 45  (1.5u)
LSU / Auburn Under 45  (1u) & Added Under 46 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
Oklahoma -13  (1u)
Alabama -21  -105  (0.5u)  & -19 (0.5u)  -- (1u overall)
BC / WF Under 50 (0.5u), U52.5 -105 (0.25u), U52 (0.25u) --(1u overall)
Boston College -1  (0.75u)
Appalachian State -13.5  (0.75u)
Marshall / South Carolina Under 50.5 (0.75u)
Central Michigan +14 (0.3u)  & +16 -105 (0.2u) -- (0.5u overall)
Ball State +14.5  (0.5u)
UNI / Iowa Under 45

College Extra:
Northern Arizona -6
Samford -9.5


 
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Posted: #35
Hope I'm not wrong on this one.  The Perfect Storm (pun intended):  Coastal Carolina PR# approximately:  54.2  Campbell PR # approximately:  26.2.  Neutral field line of approximately:  28.0.  Not buying that from a talent alone perspective.  Campbell was in the Pioneer league (non-scholarship) and has never played a team on the same TIER as Coastal Carolina.  Those super computers struggle to deal with teams on different tiers sometimes.  And how much home field advantage does Campbell really have on a Wednesday night on short notice?  Not much.

Week 3:
Miami -8 (1.5u)
New Mexico -7 -105  (1u) &  -6 -105 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
CMU / NIU Under 45  (1.5u)
LSU / Auburn Under 45  (1u) & Under 46 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
Oklahoma -13  (1u)
Alabama -21  -105  (0.5u)  & -19 (0.5u)  -- (1u overall)
BC / WF Under 50 (0.5u), U52.5 -105 (0.25u), U52 (0.25u) --(1u overall)
Boston College -1  (0.75u)
Appalachian State -13.5  (0.75u)
Marshall / South Carolina Under 50.5 (0.75u)
Central Michigan +14 (0.3u)  & +16 -105 (0.2u) -- (0.5u overall)
Ball State +14.5  (0.5u)
UNI / Iowa Under 45
Added:  Coastal Carolina -21, -22.5, -23.5, -25, -27, -28.

College Extra:
Northern Arizona -6
Samford -9.5



 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Hope I'm not wrong on this one.  The Perfect Storm (pun intended):  Coastal Carolina PR# approximately:  54.2  Campbell PR # approximately:  26.2.  Neutral field line of approximately:  28.0.  Not buying that from a talent alone perspective.  Campbell was in the Pioneer league (non-scholarship) just last year (2018 is their 1st season in the Big South) and has never played a team on the same TIER as Coastal Carolina.  Those super computers struggle to deal with teams on different tiers sometimes.  And how much home field advantage does Campbell really have on a Wednesday night on short notice?  Not much.

Week 3:
Miami -8 (1.5u)
New Mexico -7 -105  (1u) &  -6 -105 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
CMU / NIU Under 45  (1.5u)
LSU / Auburn Under 45  (1u) & Under 46 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
Oklahoma -13  (1u)
Alabama -21  -105  (0.5u)  & -19 (0.5u)  -- (1u overall)
BC / WF Under 50 (0.5u), U52.5 -105 (0.25u), U52 (0.25u) --(1u overall)
Boston College -1  (0.75u)
Appalachian State -13.5  (0.75u)
Marshall / South Carolina Under 50.5 (0.75u)
Central Michigan +14 (0.3u)  & +16 -105 (0.2u) -- (0.5u overall)
Ball State +14.5  (0.5u)
UNI / Iowa Under 45
Added:  Coastal Carolina -21, -22.5, -23.5, -25, -27, -28.

College Extra:
Northern Arizona -6
Samford -9.5




Meant to clarify this statement.  Updated above in red.
 
Legend
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Posted: #37

TD! peace_5

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by ProPickers:

Cmu/niu u like 44.5 still? Bol this week TD appreciate all the work


Yep, still like it.  45 kinda sorta a nice number (24-21 type game at least pushes).  .... If you're that worried about it, buy the hook.  But I wouldn't sit this one out at 44.5.

Have fun and good luck!  
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

TD! peace_5


wmi799, cheers man!  Pretty sure I missed responding to you last week.  My bad there.  Busy as he!l trying to juggle work, family, CFB , etc.

Best of luck to you this weekend!  
 
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Posted: #40
You have some balls taking that much on COASTAL Carolina!!!
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

You have some balls taking that much on COASTAL Carolina!!!

Balls of solid rock, buddy.....   And, it looks worse than it really is in terms of being THAT much.  Trust me on that.  I have CFB limits on openers like Scal does on political props!

I was tempted to wait it out and see if anybody else noticed before Wednesday when my limits go up on game day.  Inevitably the line will move against me and I'm PO'ed that I waited.  So, just went for it this time.


  Cheers Scal, hey, since you have that GOY line locked in, what are you doing this week with all that free time!?  I suspect there may be a new Scal thread on another play in the next 36-48 hours.
 
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Posted: #42
Updated for Thursday team total play:

Week 3:
Miami -8 (1.5u)
New Mexico -7 -105  (1u) &  -6 -105 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
CMU / NIU Under 45  (1.5u)
LSU / Auburn Under 45  (1u) & Under 46 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
Oklahoma -13  (1u)
Alabama -21  -105  (0.5u)  & -19 (0.5u)  -- (1u overall)
BC / WF Under 50 (0.5u), U52.5 -105 (0.25u), U52 (0.25u) --(1u overall)
Boston College -1  (0.75u)
Appalachian State -13.5  (0.75u)
Marshall / South Carolina Under 50.5 (0.75u)
Central Michigan +14 (0.3u)  & +16 -105 (0.2u) -- (0.5u overall)
Ball State +14.5  (0.5u)
Added:  Wake Forest Team Total Under 24.5 (0.5u)
UNI / Iowa Under 45
Coastal Carolina -21, -22.5, -23.5, -25, -27, -28.

College Extra:
Northern Arizona -6
Samford -9.5

 
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Posted: #43
 I have CFB limits on openers like Scal does on political props! lol

Absolutely TD.

Kansas vs. Rutgers will be posted after I put it together.

If you are not above betting pro wrestling, I have two bets I consider already paid off.

Hell in a Cell 9/16

Randy Orton -215 over Jeff Hardy

Roman Reigns -280 over Braun Strowman 

To get these two plays at free money comparable to a ML for a +6 pt favorite ML where anything can happen is a gift.

I know guys don't like to bet on pro wresting so if you pass, no big whoop. Just throwing it out there for all he work you do here!
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

 I have CFB limits on openers like Scal does on political props! lol

Absolutely TD.

Kansas vs. Rutgers will be posted after I put it together.

If you are not above betting pro wrestling, I have two bets I consider already paid off.

Hell in a Cell 9/16

Randy Orton -215 over Jeff Hardy

Roman Reigns -280 over Braun Strowman 

To get these two plays at free money comparable to a ML for a +6 pt favorite ML where anything can happen is a gift.

I know guys don't like to bet on pro wresting so if you pass, no big whoop. Just throwing it out there for all he work you do here!

DONE!  (extremely small, but I'm IN!)   Up to -285 on the one.
 
Captain
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Posted: #45
It's already moved to PK on one site, had to grab it now at Betonline.

Week 3:
Miami -8 (1.5u)
New Mexico -7 -105  (1u) &  -6 -105 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
CMU / NIU Under 45  (1.5u)
LSU / Auburn Under 45  (1u) & Under 46 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
Oklahoma -13  (1u)
Alabama -21  -105  (0.5u)  & -19 (0.5u)  -- (1u overall)
BC / WF Under 50 (0.5u), U52.5 -105 (0.25u), U52 (0.25u) --(1u overall)
Boston College -1  (0.75u)
Appalachian State -13.5  (0.75u)
Marshall / South Carolina Under 50.5 (0.75u)
Central Michigan +14 (0.3u)  & +16 -105 (0.2u) -- (0.5u overall)
Ball State +14.5  (0.5u)
Wake Forest Team Total Under 24.5 (0.5u)
Added:  Fresno State +1.5 (0.5u)
UNI / Iowa Under 45
Coastal Carolina -21, -22.5, -23.5, -25, -27, -28.

College Extra:
Northern Arizona -6
Samford -9.5

 
Prospect
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Posted: #46

TD, why the under on this game: BC / WF Under 50 (0.5u), U52.5 -105 (0.25u), U52 (0.25u) --(1u overall)

I've got the over on the same game. 

Both are in top 10 in plays per game in the country. 

Neither are a time of possession team. 

I THINK you are banking on weather being a major factor in this one. But they have moved the game up to 5:30 EST & the rain isn't expected to hit until early Friday morning (late Thursday night after the game is over). 

Something else you see that I don't? 

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by GeauxO:

TD, why the under on this game: BC / WF Under 50 (0.5u), U52.5 -105 (0.25u), U52 (0.25u) --(1u overall)

I've got the over on the same game. 

Both are in top 10 in plays per game in the country. 

Neither are a time of possession team. 

I THINK you are banking on weather being a major factor in this one. But they have moved the game up to 5:30 EST & the rain isn't expected to hit until early Friday morning (late Thursday night after the game is over). 

Something else you see that I don't? 


Primarily a weather play early in the week.  I'm not sure what weather model to believe as we get closer to kickoff, but the European model makes it look worse in Winston-Salem during the game than the US models.  I'm struggling at the moment to find a site with a decent ECMWF radar map by hour.  But if you watch the weather.com videos about the hurricane, toward the end they show time lapse projections starting at Thursday morning.  Pause it at game time and decide for yourself regarding wind and rain.

As for the two teams, I think WF may want to continue playing fast.  Just a hunch that BC may go old school and play keep away with Dillon and try to win an ugly more defensive game.
 
Captain
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Posted: #48
Couple more College Extra plays on 5D:

Week 3:
Miami -8 (1.5u)
New Mexico -7 -105  (1u) &  -6 -105 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
CMU / NIU Under 45  (1.5u)
LSU / Auburn Under 45  (1u) & Under 46 (0.5u) -- (1.5u overall)
Oklahoma -13  (1u)
Alabama -21  -105  (0.5u)  & -19 (0.5u)  -- (1u overall)
BC / WF Under 50 (0.5u), U52.5 -105 (0.25u), U52 (0.25u) --(1u overall)
Boston College -1  (0.75u)
Appalachian State -13.5  (0.75u)
Marshall / South Carolina Under 50.5 (0.75u)
Central Michigan +14 (0.3u)  & +16 -105 (0.2u) -- (0.5u overall)
Ball State +14.5  (0.5u)
Wake Forest Team Total Under 24.5 (0.5u)
Fresno State +1.5 (0.5u)
UNI / Iowa Under 45
Coastal Carolina -21, -22.5, -23.5, -25, -27, -28.

College Extra:
Northern Arizona -6
Samford -9.5
Added:  East Tennessee State -9
Added:  Stetson / Presbyterian Under 44.5


 
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Posted: #49
Good! I don't give out those obscure wrestling plays for people to lose!

The other game I LOVE is your play:

UNM over NMexico State. I can't believe that line went DOWN since opening. NMState, home or road is dreadful. Very suspicious that went down. Could be reverse line movement. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Good! I don't give out those obscure wrestling plays for people to lose!

The other game I LOVE is your play:

UNM over NMexico State. I can't believe that line went DOWN since opening. NMState, home or road is dreadful. Very suspicious that went down. Could be reverse line movement. 

That game and that line movement has me a little nervous -- not sure why.  I guess that it's a rivalry game and if NMSU is ever going to start playing better, now would be a good time.  And UNM is down 1 of 2 QBs as well.  Trying to play devil's advocate and defend a NMSU play is very hard to do for me.  That's about all I can come up with.
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