Tech angles week 8

@hoody @indigo999

 Thanks !! for the help 

Adding.....I am taking two home favorites in the Canadian Football League....the Argonauts and the Tiger Cats.  

The Tiger Cats started the season off terribly, but have gone 5-1 ATS, 4-2 straight up their last six after getting Chris Jones to coordinate their defense.  Their opponent, the Stampeders, are in freefall and are auditioning a quarterback for next season...their defense is the worst in the league.  I got the Tiger Cats at -2', but would take them up to -6.

The Argos are playing for second place and a home playoff game against the Redblacks.  The Redblacks' quarterback has been out and their best defensive players have been injured as well.  The Redblacks have been Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde....they are among the best in the league at home, and turn into pumpkins on the road.

The Argos were 16-2 last season before getting upset in the divisional finals by the Alouettes, but have dealt with the suspension of the league's MVP this season....they just beat the best team the second half of the season, the Bombers.........I would take the Argos also up to -6.

Additionally, I am taking the Denver Broncos on Thursday night....besides the Saints playing a rookie quarterback, it is looking likely that both starting receivers will be out,...the Saints have something like 17 guys injured this week.  

The Broncos fall into an angle that is 18-1-2 ATS in non-Sunday games.....I got them at pick for a double play, but still like them below -3.

Plays:

10) Broncos...pik......2 units

4) Argos....-2'..........1 unit

3) Tiger Cats -2'.......1 unit

7)  Toledo.................1 unit

8)  Central Michigan...1 unit

9)  Boston College.....1 unit

1)  Colorado State....1 unit

2)  Arkansas State...1 unit

5)  UAB.................1 unit

6)  UCLA...............1 unit

Baylor..............1 unit....cancelled

Wyoming..........1 unit....cancelled

When we talked earlier, I said I was thinking of Cinn , the line moved from -2.5 to -5 and -5.5 in some places, so that one is more than likely out still looking at a couple, one in the NFL and one in the NCAA, now you got me looking at BC you know how superstitious I am. 

Here's an NFL angle.....

First, an explanation of calculated line.....we take the average scoring margin of the two involved teams, subtract one from the other, and then add 2.5 points to the home team.

For example, team A is at home and they have have scored 25 points per game and allowed 20,...their scoring margin is +5.  Their present opponent, team B has scored 21 points/game and allowed 23....their average scoring margin is -2.  

The calculated line would be figured out by taking 5 and subtracting -2,....team A would be favored by 7 points on a neutral field (we subtract, we don't average!), and we give team A 2.5 points for their home field.  The calculated line is team A -9.5, or conversely team B +9.5.

When the Vegas line is less than the calculated line, this has correlated with road teams covering the point spread up until about week 9 in the NFL. 

There are a plethora of indicated games this week in this scenario.....it the exact opposite of "value" that is constantly thrown around in NFL betting lexicon.  Value is a losing premise in the NFL.

The query text is this......A and line<oA(margin)+2.5<tA(margin) and line<7

Big dogs have not shown a propensity to covering the line (as with Carolina this week), so we eliminate them from consideration.

5)  In the NFL, we play a road team as long as they are less than +7, whose line  is less than the calculated line.... since 2013 before week 9, these road teams have gone 178-85-8 ATS......as.....

  a)  away favorites...72-40-7 ATS (+2.2), 89-30 straight up (+6.1)....Broncos, Eagles, Jets, Ravens

  b)  away dogs.......102-44-1 ATS (+3.5), 73-73 straight up (-0.8).....ON Dolphins, Texans, Lions (Lions are on the cusp depending on where the line ends up)

If those road teams come in off a home loss this ratchets up to 79-27-3 ATS, 74.5%....ON Jets, Broncos

One note about the Ravens....since Lamar Jackson showed up in 2017, they have gone 35-17 ATS on the road.

However in weeks 5-10 they have been only 7-9 ATS, which then tells us through brilliant deduction that the other weeks they've gone 28-8 ATS as the away team.....

Many, but perhaps not all, would know that since Patrick Mahomes has come onboard as the starter that the Chiefs are 9-0-1 ATS as away dogs.

The query text in post #28 was wrong (and cannot be corrected)....the corrected text is below.....

A and line<oA(margin)+2.5-tA(margin) and line<7 and week<9

I think you should be able to do that with a team Avg dps and dpa Avg ( if they cover the line by say 5 there dps would be dps=5, but you should be able to do a team AVG, team A's AVG dps-team B AVG dps and team A's AVG dpa- team B's AVG dpa , something along those lines? I'll look into some stuff. Watching Baseball and hockey right now.

tA(margin)....which is average margin of victory/defeat is sufficient for what I am trying to accomplish.

With averages one just subtracts average points allowed from average points scored, to get to that margin.......which is basically one more step that is unnecessary. 

Appreciate you guys posting this. I could never get the hang of it. Killer sports now has a more "layman" system but I haven't looked at it yet.

Probably one needs a "weird-science" kind of mind to fully be integrated into killersports,..........count your blessings that you probably don't have one....

Played #10-4-8-2, NEB UN-TCU +4-LAC -2.5 so far.

G

Good fortune, my friend....

One way, an excellent way, of handicapping is to find a person or group that are bad at handicapping and fade.  It can be as simple as hanging around the water cooler at work, and finding out who everyone likes, and betting the other way.

There is a thread on another betting site that keeps track of Brandon Lang's picks, with the express intention of going opposite every one of his plays.

CBS sports and ESPN have "experts" that make picks....about 8 or more of them.  CBS Sports' group make their picks against the spread and ESPN makes them straight up so for our purposes CBS Sports is easier,.....only one expert is remotely close to being profitable, Pete Prisco is 46-43....he has the highest covering percentage of the 8 "experts" and everyone else is below the Mendoza line, some by quite a bit.

I went back and checked, and when either 7 or 8 of 8 experts were on one side, they've gone 4-10 against the spread this season, including last week's consensus game when every expert picked the Commanders at +6'......they lost by 7.

This week they have two consensus picks, the Rams and the Chargers.

We'll consider fading them and playing the Raiders and Cardinals.

CBS Sports' experts have gone 7-8 on their consensus picks, where either 7 or 8 out of experts are on one side.

You'd be 18-11 fading the consensus of NCAA football and the NFL!!

I use the filter of the line must be between -21 and +21.

This week:

  1)  8 out of 8 like Missouri -4'

  2)  7 out of 8 like Army -15'.....and who wouldn't love the service academies........ they are blitzkrieging every foe that they've played.

  3)  7 out of 8 have Navy -17

  4)  8 out of 8 have Kansas State -3

  5)  7 are on Iowa State -13'

  6)  8 are on Stanford +14'

This NCAA angle is partially from ML on another site.....

6)  Play AGAINST a  favorite  of less than 18 points with a record of 6-0, whose present opponent is off a loss as a favorite....3-12-1 against the spread (-8.4), 9-7 straight up (-0.6), which includes 1-6-1 as a home favorite.......VERSUS Iowa State, Army, BYU 

F and t:wins=6 and t:losses=0 and op:FL and C and line>-18 and week<9

Did you check your junk mail and see if that showed up if it did I found some old stuff I would scan and send it to ya, One is like your #29 thread. Where talking stuff from 2006 like I said old stuff.

I received your email in my junk folder sent you an email.

Broncos get the W(s) for us.

Plays:

10) Broncos...pik......2 units.......WW

4) Argos....-2'.................1 unit

3) Tiger Cats -2'..............1 unit

7)  Toledo +3..................1 unit

8)  Central Michigan +3'...1 unit

9)  Boston College+7........1 unit......L

1)  Colorado State -7........1 unit

2)  Arkansas State -6'........1 unit

5)  UAB +13'....................1 unit

6)  UCLA +4'....................1 unit

The AZ State qb is out.

Updated picks.

1)  Broncos pik, 2 units WW

2)  Boston College +7, 1 unit L

3)  Arkansas State -6' 1 unit

4)  Colorado State -7', 1 unit

5)  Houston +6', 1 unit

6)  Toledo +3, 1 unit

7)  Central Michigan +3'....1 unit

8)  Western Michigan pik, -115, 1 unit

9)  UCLA +4', 1 unit

10)  Eastern Carolina +16, 1 unit

11)  Toronto Argos -2', 1 unit

12)  Ottawa Redblacks -2', 1 unif

13)  UAB +13', 1 unit

14)  Kentucky +2'....1 unit,...would play up to -2'.

Lean to FAU and Charlotte, may not have time to update whether I am playing them, or not.

Correction:

Play #12 is Hamilton Tiger Cats -2', 1 unit...........NOT Ottawa.

Adding:

15)  Raiders +7 NFL, 1 unit

Might consider this one 

AD and PRSW > 10 and season>2018 and o:rank = None and week>4 and streak<4 and line<9 and total<54

Thanks, my friend.

I liked TOL all week until I say that they were dominate last season.  TOL is usually good but the qualify with other past great teams in a regression year. 

I took the Dookies and deleted the Rockets...........passing on Toledo with their 41-9 ATS angle.....we'll see what happens...

pp:ou margin > 20 and A and 12 > week > 4 and season>2009 and ou streak = 3 and ats streak<3 and 1>line>-21