Temple @ Ohio Analysis and Questions

What am I missing?  I have watched Temple play about 10 plays all year.  I haven watched Ohio take one single snap.  My eyes make up a big % of my capping,  however sometimes I have to rely on numbers and opinions of others who have seen both play. 

Temple is a running team.  Plain and simple.  I know all about Bernard Pierce.  Matt Brown can hold his own as well.  The Temple passing game is non-existent.  Ohio likes to air the ball out.  Tettleton has some great looking numbers (2,000 yards 17/5 @ 64%)  The Temple defense looks to be lights out.  Top 20 in the country in several catagories.  Only allowing 10 points a game and that includes to BCS schools (penn state/maryland)  Ohio defense isnt bad in their own right, only allowing 20 points a game. 

Temple got rocked by Toledo (38-16) in a letdown spot following the devastating loss against Penn State and the win against Maryland.  It was a good spot for Toledo, but as we all know, Toledo is a pretty solid team. Although, Temple did out gain and out 1st down Toledo.  I have a feeling 2 Temple interceptions and 2 fumbles sealed their fate.  Since that game, Temple has only allowed 13 points total in their last 3 games.  They apparently shit the bed last week and got beat by Bowling Green 13-10. 

Ohio is 1-2 in their last 3 losing to Ball State and Bufffalo (not the Bills) and getting a win last week against Akron.  Speaking of these 3 powerhouses, they are common opponents.  Temple vs Ball State/Buffalo/Akron....was 117-3.  Ohio vs the same 3 was 94-81 and going 1-2 overall.  So Ohio allowed 78 more points vs. the common opponents.  And terrible ones at that. 

Ohio has one the last 2 games in this series.  Last year they won 31-23, a game that was played in a rainstorm and one in which Bernard Pierce only played 1 play due to injury.  In 2009, Ohio won at home 35-17.  Ohio has never played against a Bernard Pierce Temple team. 

Considering how dominant this Temple defense has been all year, the revenge angle and the hard to overlook common opponents, I ask the question.  What am I missing?  Temple opened at -5 and now sits at -3.5 

lol

ohio has won (not one) the last 2.  I didnt proof it so just look past my mistakes. 

Addazio says Pierce will play.

Laying road chalk is usually not a recipe for success on these weeknight games, but I really like Temple's defense.

Sticking with my initial lean on this game despite the line movement. Temple -2.5. I will buy it down now that i have the chance. Leaning temple 1st half too. D is too dominant for this ohio squad. BOL covers brothers.

Ohio is 1-2 in their last 3 losing to Ball State and Bufffalo (not the Bills) and getting a win last week against Akron.  Speaking of these 3 powerhouses, they are common opponents.  Temple vs Ball State/Buffalo/Akron....was 117-3.  Ohio vs the same 3 was 94-81 and going 1-2 overall.  So Ohio allowed 78 more points vs. the common opponents.  And terrible ones at that. 

That is hard to overlook for me 

Temple is a very physical team.  How will Ohio handle that?  Do they run some sort of gimmick spread attack that is allowing Tettleton to put up those numbers or they a more pro-style attack?

I should add that while my writeup is slanted towards a Temple lean, the purpose was to get a good discussion going.  So far so good.....

I have learned over the years (as many of us have) that when you think a line doesnt make sense, its usually because the other side is the play.  2 recent examples of this for me was Pitt/Uconn and Clemson/GTech.  At the time, Pitt didnt deserve to be favored over anyone, much less a conference opponent.  Considering their terrible loss at home to Utah and the pitiful display on the road at Rutgers, how could Vegas set them at anything more then -3?  Well there they were, a 10 point favorite.  Didnt make sense but it was clearly the play.  Same with GTech/Clemson.....one team was rolling with all the confidence and the other had gone into hiding.  I thought for sure Clemson wouldve been -6 at the least.  It comes out at -3.5 and stays there.....GTech was the play.  Anyway, I'm getting the same vibe for tonights game.  Looking at everything (and this is assuming Pierce plays) Temple should probably be -6 atleast.  Ohio the play?  Hmmmm

I agree NC, these crowds are terrible.  Especially tonight, with the new episode of Xfactor on, who would want to leave the house?  lol 

However, while the crowd doesnt make a difference, the travel does.  Most of these schools have terrible visiting team facilities so Temple will be cramped up in a locker room built for a 29 man roster while having to spend stay at a Motel 6.  That I do factor but crowd noise?  Pffff, you can normally hear someone fart. 

Both of these teams know how important this game is.  Currently Temple holds a half game lead over Ohio in the Eastern Division.  The last 2 years, Ohio has spoiled Temples hopes of making it to Detroit for the MAC championship game.  The winner of this game will control their own destiny in the East.  Both teams have 3 winable games remaining and for Temple, all 3 are at home.  The coachs know it, the players know it and the fans know it, tonight is a must win for the Temple Owls to get over the hump.  But Ohio has their number!  Should be a really good game.  The under looks like the only play here on the total but still undecided on a side.  If the public will push temple back to -4, I think there is some serious value in Ohio getting a 4.  Game could easily be decided by a field goal. 

And after reading both teams sites (rivals/scout) its unclear how healthy Pierce is.  He was supposedly around 60% for the bowling green game (hamstring issue) but 60% was still good enough for a 100+ yards rushing.