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Temple @ Ohio Analysis and Questions

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Posted: #26

Last year when Pierce was hurt temple struggled

Even though i am a temple  grad I'm taking ohio

 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:



He barely practiced, you don't know how much your going to get out of him

He didn't practice before the Bowling Green game either.  In that game he rushed 17 times for 107 yards and a TD.  Addazio has said that the extra 5 days of rest has helped him out tremendously.  I expect him to be pretty close to 100% for this game.

 

 
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Posted: #28
thanks for all the info wolf
I'm leaning on Ohio with under...

but someone please explain to me "odd" line movements...
why does a line on a team that has nearly 70% consensus on them, move the other direction in favor of the the team that is already favored??

i thought lines were, for the most part, supposed to move in order to balance out the wagers coming in? 50/50 split being the goal?
 
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Posted: #29
Temple has an All-MAC caliber senior on the offensive line (Pat Boyle) who is questionable for this game... at 6'5'' 320-pounds, you gotta figure his absence could equal less running room for whoever's totin the ball for the Owls.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by koonendez:

thanks for all the info wolf
I'm leaning on Ohio with under...

but someone please explain to me "odd" line movements...
why does a line on a team that has nearly 70% consensus on them, move the other direction in favor of the the team that is already favored??

i thought lines were, for the most part, supposed to move in order to balance out the wagers coming in? 50/50 split being the goal?

reverse line movement.  You can google that term and get more info/theories then I would ever be able to type out but the notion that Vegas wants 50/50 on ALL wagers isnt accurate.  They will certainly "gamble" on some lines.  Reverse line movement can be looked at as one of those spots where they want to gamble.  Looking at it from the eyes of Vegas, there is only 1 game tonight so their exposure is limited.  If the outcome they are predictiing is opposite the public and they are comfortable with it, they could move the line to help the entice even more public $ and gamble on their prediction.  This might be one of those spots...

 
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Posted: #31

Going off my post above, there are certain players that Vegas respects.  When they talk (bet) Vegas listens.  So while 70% of the public might be on one side, if the people they respect (fear) are on the other, they have to react.  This angle goes hand in hand with reverse line movement

 
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Posted: #32
thanks, much appreciated information wolf
 
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Posted: #33
Like the under in this spot.
 
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Posted: #34
Last three common opponents leads me to belive that Temple TT over 26 is the play. Good luck to you all
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by theguru1:

Check Sean Murphy's writeup on the experts free picks page. Seems like Ohio is the play here and I already liked them to begin with and this confirmed my lean. Plus going against the public seems to be money in these weekday games a lot of the time and so far a lot on Temple. Ohio's defense is 2nd in the cofnerence behind Temple in just about every category and their offense is way better and they will most likely stuff the box to stop the run. The game will come down to not getting beat on play action by Temple which shouldnt be hard with their putrid QB, and whether or not Ohio can move the ball on offense which I think they will score enough to win the game outright. Tettleton is a much improved QB this year and doesn't throw many picks. And Ohio has a good run defense.



my information shows me that 72% of the public is on Ohio, and from what I've read most people think Ohio as well.  Not sure where you get the public being on Ohio is from.  The lines also shifted a half point in favor of Temple.
 
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Posted: #36
Public being on Temple***
 
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Posted: #37
lines shifte 1 point from 4.5 to 3.5
 
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Posted: #38
Temple 8-0 Under last 8 road games...........
 
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Posted: #39
The betting percentage tells you how many
The line movement tracks the money

Example:

750 people could bet on Temple, with an average bet of 100 dollars. Resulting in $75,000.

250 people could bet on Ohio, with an average bet of 300 dollars. Resulting in $75,000.

So 75% are on Temple/25% on Ohio but the money on each side is even (75,000/75,000) so the line does not move. 

The books want the money on each side to zero out so they collect ALL DAT JUICE!

 
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Posted: #40

Is the line holding tight at 3.5 begging for Temple backers to buy the hook?  If Vegas is in the gambling mood, why not go for double juice? 

Pointless fact, my 2 square pals both took Temple. 

 
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Posted: #41
Ohio 19 turnovers in 8 games...................
 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by wolfestreetgambler:

Dr. Bob was the main reason the line moved last night. 

 

Who's the heck Dr. Bob.  Enquire mind wanna know.

 
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Posted: #43

Dr. Bob is a pretty succesful tout that has a huge following.  He has the ability to move lines.  You can google his web page for more info. 

 
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Posted: #44
Sure want to take temple -3.5, but laying off.  Ohio 5-0 ats after a bye. Looks like under 46.5 is my bet
 
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Posted: #45
for those who are consiering the under in this game take a closer look @ the following trend:

Temple is 9-2 under in their last 11 conference games
(Funny thing is the two overs came against Ohio and each game went over 50 points between the teams)

Under is 6-0 in Temple last 6 conference games
(Last game to go over was last season when they hosted Ohio in a 31-23 loss)

Granted Bolden is now coaching @ Miami so Addazio might have some different wrinkles but it seems temple still has close to the same philosophies on offense and defense as it did then.  Again, when it looks to good to be true it normally is.  Line opened @ 44.5 and was bet up to 47.5 which is now dropping to 46.5 in some spots.  Lets be honest, a team in temple giving up 10.0 ppg this season has a total in the vicinity of 50 pts?!

I was in vegas a few years back on a wednesday night when the total between these two teams was 41.  I bet under and hit and when i was cashing the guy at the desk @ Mandalay asked why i bet the under because @ such a low total people normally take overs.  Appears opposite tonight as everyone tonight is on the under and i'm sure they all feel pretty secure in their wager knowing how stout temple's D is and how many points it will take to beat their under wager.

I will most likely be going with the over and waiting til last min possible to get the lowest line.  Solich appears to have a good enough scheme over the past few seasons against Temple and Ohio seems to be the only team that can put up points against them, the "thorn in temple's side" if you will.  Ohio and the 3.5 is prob a pretty good bet as well.  Good luck to everyone on their wagers
 
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Posted: #46

Quote Originally Posted by DannySatan:

Temple has an All-MAC caliber senior on the offensive line (Pat Boyle) who is questionable for this game... at 6'5'' 320-pounds, you gotta figure his absence could equal less running room for whoever's totin the ball for the Owls.

Boyle is also suppose to play.

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by wolfestreetgambler:

Dr. Bob is a pretty succesful tout that has a huge following.  He has the ability to move lines.  You can google his web page for more info. 


dr. bob has not moved lines in years you couldnt be more wrong about the fact that you think dr. bob moved the line is last nights game the only person that moves lines is billy walters, if you dont know who he is google him, he's the most successful person to ever do this.  lines move for a ton of reasons, dr. bob is not one of them
 
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Posted: #48

Injury concerns seem the only explanation for the line movement.

Gone against my norm MO (ie follow the money) because Temple look far the better side.

 

 
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Posted: #49

Temple looks to easy.  Going with Ohio +4 (-120) and Under 47

Good luck everyone 

 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by wolfestreetgambler:

Temple looks to easy.  Going with Ohio +4 (-120) and Under 47

Good luck everyone 




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