Texas AM @ Ole Miss....Elementary Analyis, but a Valid point.

Most serious handicappers would read what I am about to write and call me an idiot; there are so many things that factor into a final score, that comparing 2 different games with a common opponent isn't always so reliable, but here it goes:

Texas A&M scored 42 points on Alabama.

Ole Miss scored 0 points on Alabama.

That is some major disparity, at every level...talent wise, schematically, etc.  The comparison of final scores in this case is very significant.

Texas A&M has gone over 40 pts in every game this season.  Ole miss has done it only once, and that was against Texas....possibly the worst gap control defense in the nation.

The bottom line is this:  by hanging up a TAMU -6.5, oddsmakers are saying that the home field for Ole miss will lead to enough turnovers that TAMU will actually trail in this game at some point, and the defense will become a serious liability, more than usual.

Personally, I am not betting against the machine to bog down.  Unless something major changes, I am on TAMU under a TD, and am looking to tease that -6 down. 

One other quick point on "scoring" points.

Texas AM has played 5 games, 20 full quarters of football.  They have scored in all but 3.

Of the 3 quarters that they have not scored in, 2 of them were in 4th quarter blowout games:  vs SMU up 42-6, and vs Sam Houston St up 65-28.

The only meaningful shutout quarter was the 2nd quarter vs Alabama....Bama built a lead and held on to win.

Texas A&M is sustained offense...constant points.....that will put serious pressure on Ole Miss to keep up.

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

A&M can't stop anyone is the issue, they should score many points and could outscore Ole Miss in the end but I wouldn't feel great with that defense

Agreed.

Two reasons are why the line is where it is:

1) Ole Miss is playing at home.

2) Texas A&M Defense is bad.

Completely understood...and those are good reasons to look for a close game.  And if Ole Miss can keep TAMU in the 30's then they have a shot to win.... but in a true shootout situation, when both teams are scoring 7's not 3's, then I take the team I know is going to hang the most 7's....and that is TAMU.

Quote Originally Posted by TimTowner:

Books never want 80% of the bets on one-side like this game.  When this happens and the line doesn't correct much, their analysis shows a closer game than the people think.  It doesn't happen 100% of the time but I would say close to 70% of the time, the book was right with their line and the public was wrong 

actually, the books' lines have been off the final result by at least 3 points in a whopping 87% of the games so far this season

Thanks for the Luck...I will take all I can get.

The big factor that no one really knows is how long Ole Miss will be "up" for.  I am in full agreement that the first 7:30 will be big...Ole miss will be flying around, challenging everything....and they may grab a T.O. or two....maybe a kickoff return.

But the rub is this........Ole Miss had high hopes with all of those returning starters...they believed they could challenge in the SEC West. And here they are, 3-2 and 0-2 in the west, and are a fortunate finish vs Vandy away from being 2-3 overall.  I am not sold that this team will stay "up" for much more than a quarter and a half if TAMU plays offense the way they have all season, and really back to last season vs LSU.

The home field is a huge advantage in college football, especially the SEC. This will only be Ole Miss' second home game this season.....and we will see what it means to this team, this year...again it is tough to know for sure just how much is left in the tank after last weeks Auburn loss, where the Rebs did not play well.

One other thing to remember is that the way the SEC rigs up the schedules, this will be TAMU's second trip to Ole Miss in as many years.  Last year TAMU won 30-27, and it was close......but TAMU TURNED THE BALL OVER 6 TIMES!!!! 4 fumbles and 2 picks, and only got back 2 picks of their own.  

The odds of TAMU turning it over  6 times this season are slim.

If TAMU gets off early, then lookout.  Ole Miss will watch its season go down the drain, and the pressure to score and keep up will be too much. 

Nobody had high hopes, and if they did their idiots. All those returning starters? The majority of them are still underclassman. They start 5 true freshman and play 12 freshman so it's not like they're all that experienced. Houston Nutt left the roster in such shambles it will take some time to fix and have quality depth.

They played great at bama, just couldn't score. Defense played it's best game I can remember seeing. But this team full of youth and inexperience was bound to struggle on the road at night at Alabama and Auburn. Hell 4 of the first 5 games were on the road. That can't be easy for such a young team. Which is probably why you saw so many mistakes at Aubie.

Now they go back home to play A&M who they should have beat last year. Atmosphere will be nuts for a 7:30 kick and a long awaited return to the grove after over a month away.

If you're thinking this is going to be an easy money blowout you will probably be pretty dissapointed late on Saturday night.

There are very few games that turn out to be "easy"....not expecting that here.

Blowouts do not usually happen on the road in conference games..but 6 pts isn't a blowout.

Pretty much every preseason mag out there had Ole Miss challenging Bama and LSU in the West; so I would have to say that expectations were and are a bit higher than usual.

For what it is worth, I will be watching the Oregon St @ Washington St matchup late Saturday night, and wont be giving this matchup anymore thought at all......