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The Contrarian- line movements to be wary of

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Lonetree - Teddy and I discuss this on the radio show - great post sir
 
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Posted: #27
Sean... I agree Baylor or nothing. Im a Terp, the ACC is what I follow most, and not sure if I could trust Wake laying that many on the road.
 
 
Thanks Prez  
 
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Posted: #28
Ok, here's what I know.
 
A few years back there were a group of guys here on Covers that did exactly this. Followed public vs reverse line movement.....I mean it was the forum phenomenon. The system was fairly hot for a few weeks, then these knuckleheads tried to branch off and go tout! Needless to say, the system shit the bed and wasn't heard of for another oh.....hmmm....week or so. I don't care where you are looking or what you think you know, you have no insight into what money and how many people are on a side unless you work for the Book in Veags. BOTTOM LINE!
 
In addition, if you look deep enough you will find a trend that supports your case. I have a trend that supports WF covering against Baylor at a clip of 73% of the time over the last 10 years. We choose a side based on the information we find valuable, but at the end of the day it's all a crap shoot guys. Plain and simple.
 
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Posted: #29
UrdaddyinAZ
 
nobodys pimpin any system... I didnt even use the word picks; barely used leans...and Ive watch public betting %'s in many sports for many years.
 
As technology improves, so does the ability to gather data.
 
Im not touting this as an elixer... but I do believe that being privy to public perception and line movements is information that can be beneficial. 
 
I wont make a play purely based on line movements (well minimal plays, if nothing else is "on"); I mean, there has to be some tangible reason; but, personally, I have to have some pretty strong information to entice me to wager on a 75% + public play and the line moving against the flow. I prefer to side with the books.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #30

UPDATE:

 

Wake @ Baylor:  80% (was 87%)  on Wake (fave);  Line has moved from -12.5 to  -12. (same)

 

Syr @ Northwestern: 76%( was 73%) on Northwstrn(fave); Line moved from -12 (to -11.5) now to -11

 

Memphis @ Miss.:  76% on Miss(fave) ; Line from -8 to -7.5 (no changes)

 

Miss St @ La Tech:  87% on Miss St (fave); Line from -8.5 to -7.5 (no changes)

 

Mich St @ Cal:  55% on Cal (fave); Line from -5.5 (to -4 *) now to -5 (no longer in consideration): Phil Helmuth moved the line back up.

 

And ADDING to the watch list:

 

Ark St @ Tex A&M:   79% on A&M (fave):  Line from -20.5  now  -19.5

 

 

Anybody tell me why Ark St.? (I know A&M is NOT going to be the class off the big 12)

 

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by UrdaddyinAZ:

Ok, here's what I know.
 
A few years back there were a group of guys here on Covers that did exactly this. Followed public vs reverse line movement.....I mean it was the forum phenomenon. The system was fairly hot for a few weeks, then these knuckleheads tried to branch off and go tout! Needless to say, the system shit the bed and wasn't heard of for another oh.....hmmm....week or so. I don't care where you are looking or what you think you know, you have no insight into what money and how many people are on a side unless you work for the Book in Veags. BOTTOM LINE!
 
In addition, if you look deep enough you will find a trend that supports your case. I have a trend that supports WF covering against Baylor at a clip of 73% of the time over the last 10 years. We choose a side based on the information we find valuable, but at the end of the day it's all a crap shoot guys. Plain and simple.

Ah,ace bb,fletcherism,and the boys. 

The thing that sucked is that fletch was a great capper before he got involved in the gimmicky "sharp plays".

He e-mailed me their picks during college basketball season and they did very well,but then they put up their own website and charged a monthly fee for their picks.They would post their previous days results on their website to entice people to join.Within a week things went VERY bad and that was the end of the "sharp plays". Further prooving your point that there is no "system" that is going to beat Vegas consistantly.

 
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Posted: #32
The system can work, but you need to pick your spots.
It produces too much volume to bet every game that you see move in the reverse direction. You have to establish criteria and quite honestly none of the games listed meet any good criteria (a .5 move is insignificant).

Love the fact that people still remember ace bb on covers...
 
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Posted: #33
By the way, Kentucky dropped a full point. Now that is something to look at.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by 14daroad:

By the way, Kentucky dropped a full point. Now that is something to look at.

 Damn it,I use a local and can't get down 'till Sunday on that game.If it drops much further it will lose all value. 

 
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Posted: #35
JRBull, KY is down to 3.5 at the Greek & Pinnacle.
 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by lonetreejj:

UPDATE:

 

Wake @ Baylor:  80% (was 87%)  on Wake (fave);  Line has moved from -12.5 to  -12. (same)

 

Syr @ Northwestern: 76%( was 73%) on Northwstrn(fave); Line moved from -12 (to -11.5) now to -11

 

Memphis @ Miss.:  76% on Miss(fave) ; Line from -8 to -7.5 (no changes)

 

Miss St @ La Tech:  87% on Miss St (fave); Line from -8.5 to -7.5 (no changes)

 

Mich St @ Cal:  55% on Cal (fave); Line from -5.5 (to -4 *) now to -5 (no longer in consideration): Phil Helmuth moved the line back up.

 

And ADDING to the watch list:

 

Ark St @ Tex A&M:   79% on A&M (fave):  Line from -20.5  now  -19.5

 

 

Anybody tell me why Ark St.? (I know A&M is NOT going to be the class off the big 12)

 

 

Just Fantastic Info Brother

I see Baylor maybe coming up with the back door cover in Briles first game    

 

Northwestern  should win , but there is a very good chance they don't cover... I keep asking myself who is betting on Cuse ???

 

Memphis seems like a great play ... Ole Miss is heading in the right direction but I would not want to lay 7+ Points vs Very good Offense in Memphis... escpecially wiht the OLe miss DL Injuries

 

I love takijg the Dog in that Time SLOT(645 PM ):on ESPN 2  

  LA Tech  could lose by  3-4 points

 

Arkansas ST is one of my top Plays for week 1

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