The DAWG House - Week 3 (15-8 YTD)

Week 0: 2-0 (+1.36)

Week 1: 9-6 (+0.97)

Week 2: 4-2 (+0.75)

YTD: 15-8 (65% +3.08)

Another week in the black as we start to think we might probably almost maybe know what some of these teams are going to do this year. Grabbed a couple early lines to get the week started! All chalk, but I'm not good enough yet to catch the dogs early... BoL to everyone this week!

Florida -9 (0.95 to win 0.90) - Terrible news out of Lexington as Terry Wilson is now out for the season. His athleticism accounted for so much of UK's offense and identity. Wish the man a speedy recovery! Florida is also in a revenge spot this year; you know they hated hearing about how they lost to Kentucky for the first time in 32 years last year. Line opened at -10, and dropped to -9 quickly. Interested to watch it as folks figure out that Wilson is out for the year. 

Ohio State -14.5 (1.20 to win 1.00) - Justin Fields and Ohio State finally get a chance to put their talents up against a fellow Big 10 opponent. I think this line is an overreaction to Indiana's success through the first 2 weeks. The Hoosiers have demolished folks for 2 straight weeks, as have the Buckeyes, but OSU has played slightly tougher competition IMO. Indiana in for a wake up call at home, no look ahead for Ohio State and they continue to roll. 

Maryland -6.5 (1.07 to win 1.00) - Knee jerk pick for sure and I might be a sucker for it. But so goes the strife of the amateur gambler... Only sampling we have of the 2019 Temple squad is a dismantling of... wait for it... Bucknell. Hard to read much into that, just as it's kinda hard to figure out this Maryland team as well. Public I imagine will pound Maryland so I'm glad I at least got the line under a TD.

More picks to come!

Adding...

Army -16 (1.25 to win 1.00) - A lot of juice on this pick but I feel good about Army. I think the Rice game is an anomaly; It's easier to prepare for the triple option when you have the entire offseason to think about it. Very little positive about UTSA thus far, blowout loss to Baylor and a blowout win against perennial powerhouse Incarnate Word (didn't even know they had a football team...)

Texas Tech -3 (0.91 to win 1.00) - Somewhat just tailing some of the popular cappers here on the forum, but also getting this at +110 was a surprise. Arizona is a mess but not sure we have a definitive ruling on either team yet.

All favorites so far... looking at some dogs and point totals to add this week!

GL Dawg.

Nice start

Sawyer Smith will be taking over as Doc stayed above. He’s certainly no slouch; went 5-2 as a starter at Troy and was MVP of the Dollar General Bowl. Lost his first game as a starter against Liberty but only lost once more to App State. Over 1600 yards in just 7 games as a starter. Not the worst athlete but can’t run like Terry Wilson. Handles the RPO well...

Florida’s schedule just sets up perfectly for this game though. Close win against an in-State rival, bye week, tune-up game, and a revenge spot against Kentucky. Sawyer has never seen a defense or speed like Florida will bring to the table. Kentucky is also giving up 20 pts/game and has only played Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Saving grace might be that the game is in Lexington.

Something that does scare me a little, or at least makes me curious, is the line moving towards Kentucky. I thought -9 was a steal but now you can find it at -8 or -7.5. Opened at -9.5 or -10. Public would have to be backing Florida.... thoughts? Both squads may be a little overrated?

Kentucky is chit this year. If the Florida offense can do anything, they will run away with this game. 

Yeah, I think you're going to get UGA at -11 or -12. If the golden domers can pound that line down below 10 it's probably worth a look. I'm interested to see what everyone is saying on the forum next week.

Too much bias in me to put any money on UGA v ND; I'll be excited enough just to watch that one.

Welcome to DawgNation! GL this week! 

That's the play here for sure. Kirby can say there's no look ahead to ND but let's be real... The goal in this game for the Dawgs is to get in, get up 3-4 scores, and coast with 2nd/3rd stringers the rest of the way. I expect a heavy dose of the run game and UGA won't have a 35 point quarter like they did against Murray State. ASU is averaging 40 points a game against some lesser competition so it wouldn't be unrealistic for them to get 14-17+, which means UGA will have to get at least 50 to cover which they don't do often (only once against UMass in 2018).

If Georgia wanted to, they could probably name the score, but this is a bad spot. Look ahead to ND and also a second cupcake in a row; definitely could see them coming out a little flat wishing they were making a statement like they will the week after. UGA also planning a "pink out" for ASU coach's wife who died from breast cancer. That may or may not be a factor but there's no ill will here for the Dawgs to go for the jugular. Kirby Smart, and lots of locals, upset about the lack of passing game vs Vandy; they proved they could pass against Murray State so no need to open up the playbook either.

I'll predict a 49-20 type game. ASU picks up a TD or two in the second half to cover. GL Train! 

Adding a little Friday night fun...

6pt Teaser: UNC/Wake U73, WSU/Houston O69.5 (0.66 to win 0.60) - Two great offenses... two not so great offenses. We'll see what happens.

I think Florida covers against KY.  Gators have troubles ahead but their defense is too good for the Cats with a new QB at the helm and a depleted running game after Snell left.  New backs are OK, but not a replacement for what Snell provided.  Not a fan of the Fla. offense, that line is awful but they will get good field position from their defense and have a significant ST advantage.

UGA will shorten the game and keep the offenses simple.  Arky State is not a true cupcake and will put up some points.  No play for me this week. Don't like high point games where there is no incentive for the coach to let the offense rip a little bit.  Dawgs could cover but if I were betting it would be to take the points.  There are better plays than this one

Now next week is a different story.  This is a bad match up for ND with their defensive front against the UGA OL and that stable of backs.  Will bet this game early to lock in anything under 14, then watch to see the movement for more opportunities.  I expect it around 11 at the open and hope the ND money keeps it down if it starts to run away from me.  Like this play for next week a lot.

Big bet for me this week is OU blowing UCLA out of the water.  Already loaded on it at -21 from Monday night but might add more.  Sooners might have additional incentive as they got bumped in the rankings, may pile it on.  GL to all.

Adding..

7pt Teaser: OSU -9, AkSt/UGA O50.5, ColSt +17.5, Okla -15, Syracuse +35.5, Army -9.5 (0.70 to win 2.67)

10pt Teaser: Duke +3.5, Okla -12.5, ColSt +20, UCF/Stan U72 (0.80 to win 0.73)