The DAWG House - Week 3 (15-8 YTD)

Testing a theory... 

As an ESPN Insider, a service included is pick analysis by Team Rankings and NumberFire. NumberFire actually produces a Return on Investment as well as a spread probability based on stats, this year's team, and comparable teams in the past. You can access the results by paying another monthly subscription... but I'm not doing that. Instead, I'm just going to look at games that have a 60% probability of a spread being covered or greater and see how those perform. I've already created a spreadsheet and will report back to see if this model produces any sort of sustainable results.

Interesting that the majority of the high probability covers are underdogs; I'll also see if that is a trend. 29 FBS games this week are showing 60% or greater this week; 7 of those games are listed at 70% or higher. Only 11 of the 29 are favorites (38%)

I have a degree in mathematics so every now and then the nerd comes out and starts running numbers.

Happy Friday and BoL to everyone this weekend! 

Doubling down on WSU/HU over. O55.5 for game... hopefully penalties and rust is over.

Still need them to get to 70pts to hit the teaser.

Rough Start but fortunately both small bets... can’t count on 800 penalties in a game.

Adding...

GaTech vs Citadel U58.5 (2.64 to win 2.4) - first wager larger than a unit. Citadel runs the option and guess what GaTech practiced against for the last few years? Citadel will struggle to score and Tech is just plain awful on offense. They might get to 30 but the Citadel wont chip in much help

Awesome thread Dawg! Lots of great insight and info.

BOL today

Nerd Dog,

If you haven't yet, take a tour of a Sportsbook "Alg"" Room in Vegas.  They hire some crazy good math/IT guys.  I couldn't understand half of what they said (I have  minor in Applied Stats) but their operation must rival military command rooms.

Ugh.  I'm biased too....but very worried about blowout city next week .  UGA will want to make a BIG statement to the Committee. Anything south of 14 would seem like an auto bet.

Goodstuff. GL.  UGA 80 Finance

Florida -9 

Ohio State -17.5  

Maryland -6.5 

Army -16  

Texas Tech -3 

6pt Teaser  

7pt Teaser 

10pt Teaser 

WSU/Houston O55

GT/Cit U58.5  

Lord have sweet mercy... nothing like regressing to the mean huh? The silver lining here is that I made GT/Cit Under a large wager which saved an otherwise dreadful weekend.

Week 3: 3-7 (30%) -1.38

YTD: 18-15 (55%) +1.70

There may be some substance to that NumberFire theory, the sun still rose this morning, and UGA primetime against the Irish this week! Week 4 wagers coming soon...