Analysis #1:
TCU vs. Baylor
Lean: TCU +10
Seeing A LOT of love for Baylor, but going to have to go against the grain on this one. I understand TCU is coming off a huge, emotional win vs. Oklahoma at home, but make no doubt about it, this team is the real deal - solid top to bottom and if you give me 10 points, i'm going to take it regardless of potential letdown spot.
Key Notes:
-Baylor is averaging 51PPG, while TCU is averaging 42PPG. Defensively, Baylor is giving up 12.4PPG with TCU surrendering 13.5.
Clearly these teams put up big numbers. The edge here goes to Baylor, but looking closer, i'd rate TCU having the tougher strength of schedule (wins vs. Oklahoma, Minnesota) than Baylor (wins vs. Iowa State, Texas) so it evens out. Either way, it doesn't seem to me that much separates these two squads on the score board.
-Both teams have a common opponent - SMU - whom Baylor beat 45-0 while TCU beat them 56-0 - both @ SMU.
-Turnover battle TCU +5, Baylor +4.
-Looking at the StatFox numbers, not much separates these two opponents. Offensively and defensively they match up nicely. Very even matchup, in my opinion.
Final Take:
10 points is a lot to give to a team that matches up so nicely. Key injury to Baylor's starting DE. This game will be close to the very end.
Main reason I lean TCU is that Baylor struggled offensively vs. Texas, who admitedly is a strong defensive squad. TCU is every bit as strong defensively. It seemed to me that Baylor was able to extend their lead on Texas because Texas was unable to extend drives and thus, tired their defense. The speed of Baylor isn't easy to keep up with regardless of how stout your defense is, but it is much easier when your offense is able to extend drives, which I believe TCU will be able to do. I love the TCU QB Boykin - Baylor has yet to face a dual-threat QB this year and I could see him giving trouble to Baylor. Stringing two wins in a row vs. both Oklahoma and Baylor will be tough, but give me the points in this matchup because I think this one will be a close one.
Any thoughts? Further input would be much appreciated. Seeing an even matchup on my end in neutral field. Feel like line should be more in the 7 range.
Good info
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