Tracking Sharp Money

Do you guys use a website or app to track %bets and %money? What, if anything, is the most reliable source?

Sports Insights has a a cool free page for their lines and provides the % quantity of bets on each side but % money through paid subscription... the tutorial on their service makes it sound like they provide you notifications on steam moves, sharp money moves, and sounds like a big part of their thesis is public fading and reverse line move bets, and that kinda line science.... which btw is a subject I'm not all that familiar with and don't spend much time on.. 

I think VI does the same thing w the free %'s although I am not for sure exactly what their wager % means, unsure about any subscriptions they offer. 

Also I used to get a free app called z-code which was kinda handy and gave some wager %'s and line tracking, etc which is kinda cool knowledge but I wasn't really using their info all that much in practice.

I'd imagine covers has to also have some kinda line info tracking info service.. 

If you or anyone else subscribes to sports insights or some other services like that I'd like to hear what you like and don't like about it..  

Good luck Dawg, please report back w any good intel sites you find out about!

Thanks Bridge! I currently only use the free services provided by "The Action Network" app. For free, it will show you some line movement and % of bets. A paid subscription will get you access to the % of money on a particular side as well as "expert" opinions and analysis.

I only do this for fun and I'm not looking to fork out a bunch of money for analysis but I do plan to take it a little more seriously this year. I also realize reverse line movement, fading the public, etc. aren't fool proof strategies either. But its a tool. I think if we can combine tools like that with our own analysis, it would provide a good foundation for placing some wagers.

Interested to hear what other folks are using or not using and I will certainly report back any information I find.

I considered paying for the Action network. I think it's only like $10/month.

Do you know if Action relies entirely on public input though? I wonder if they are tracking books or if entirely dependent on folks entering their wagers... I do like the ability to enter, track, and review wagers on Action.

Im not sure.... I track line movements on Sports insights and Vegas insider, and then compare those line movements to the money percentages on The action network.

Yeah word up Dawg. I think there's some of that analysis that might put some matchups on my radar but seemed like it was taking too long to take action.. Mostly just like to see if I see if I'm in the boat with everyone else when spotting up a play and might think twice if that's the case.... UCF -4.5 or so vs Memphis circa last year or Aub -6 vs LSU of 2 years back might have been a good times to check that out and maybe save a few bucks ... or maybe just check the temperature on those in the covers forum lol. 

Just found a contradiction though... FIU vs Tulane (-2): According to the Action Network, 70% of the action is on FIU. And on Vegas Insiders, 82% is on Tulane.

I hear ya on that! I definitely peruse this forum's regulars to see if what I'm seeing is what they're seeing... We're at least "semi-sharp" right?!

I only look at line movement on vegasinsiders.... The opening number and where its at currently

Sportsinsights is the best i think. Their percentages seem to accurate.

For that Tulane game, Action network is showing money split of 86% to 14% 

most money on FIU

When I see a large amount of money on one side like that, I usually will go contrarian and play the other side.... Tulane is a play for me so Im actually strangely satisfied to be against the public on that

Would # of bets and total money both being on FIU translate to sharps and square money heading that way? I'm actually playing FIU here and grabbed it at +2.5. I think they win outright though so they'll also be part of my UDMLP.

It would appear that both the public and sharps are in agreement right now that FIU is the play. 

But could also be just public money and the sharps havent weighed in yet. Just watch the number up until game week and keep an eye for any movement that contradicts what we already see.... if you see this thing tick back up to -3 or 3.5.... and the percentages are relatively the same, thats a clue that some money came in on Tulane

Im no expert lol

go with your gut bro.

line movement, ticket counts, and money are a small part of the equation

I have been using betting consensus and line moves for many years and was one of the first to use the Sport Insights program which is now part of the Sports Action Network for a very reasonable price.

Reverse line moves, fading the public, etc all used to be strong approaches.  Now, not so much.  Not sure why but a lot of sharp money is supposedly betting "off the screen" using outs that only handle very large bets and are not part of the money moves that we will be seeing.  So a lot what used to be sharp money may not be visible anymore.  What used to lool like sharp money could now be little more than some dummies with a big bankroll.

Tracking amount of dollars bet vs # of bets placed can also be done a Sports Action but this actually of more use as contrarian indicator than a sharp money play.  SI likes to sell this as a sharp indicator but not from what I've seen in CFB.  This is usable but not in the way SI likes to sell it.  

The only indicator that really tracks true public action is the parlay percentage at Sports Insights.  Parlay money is universally regarded as square money and this always worth a look before placing your bets.  Keep your parlay pct bets on games under 40% and under 30% is even stronger.  You will be on some horrific looking dogs but it's surprising how often these games actually cover if you shop for the best line available.

I don't think it's possible to track sharp money anymore but it is very possible to track the dumbest of the dumb money.  Public action is getting sharper than it used to be so using the parlay pct is the best bet.  The closer to game time, the more accurate the parlay pct tends to be.

Last I checked, Tulane had 43% of the parlay percentage.  FIU was well over 60% in both number of tickets and amount of dollars.  Line opened at Tulane - 3 to -2 and then backed up to -2.5 at a few other shops.   Stats favor FIU, market read favors Tulane.  Looks like a pass for me at this time.

Tip - Only trust consensus numbers that are reflecting actual bets at sportsbooks ( like SI).  Covers consensus numbers are not reflective of actual dollars being bet on games

Appreciate the insight combato! I know you're a analytical stats guy as well...

Thanks Dawg.  I used to be a regular poster here but dropped off in 2016.  However, the overall quality of the information has improved greatly so I am dipping back in for awhile.

For the record, I generally use 2 basic approaches - Reading the market and running game simulations.  I also play around with the S&P+ metrics produced by Bill Connelly who which used to be available at Footballoutsiders.com.  Since Bill moved to ESPN in the off season, I don't know if we will have access to his numbers for this year.

One thing to consider in this case is what I call "game visibility".  FIU vs Tulane is definitely NOT what I would call a highly visible game.  This often means that public will not be that interested in betting this one but sharps can have interest in any game on the board on either side.  To me, it seems unlikely that the money move on FIU is not public but more likely represents sharper money.  That said, the line has moved off the key number of -3 which makes FIU unplayable to me unless the line comes back to -3.  According to BA's analysis, this is unlikely and I agree with him.  I was going to play the +3, messed around, and missed the move.  Move on to the next game.

I use the Sports Insight app. Its free and gives different lines and % for different sports books. I have used it plenty of times to be on the right side of reverse line movements.

If you have Excel, you can learn to run Monte Carlo simulations.  There are tons of you tube videos that describe how to do this and even a few that teach you how to run simulations of NBA games.

But as in anything else, garbage in = garbage out.  I would recommend reading everything you can find on the science of sports analytics, maybe even building your own database ( also in Excel ) and run linear regressions on your database.  Why?   You want find the relevant data points to include in your simulation = non garbage.   Excel will also allow you to run linear regressions if you want to that deep.

If not, jump in start using things like yards per play, projected plays per game, anything that you would think is correlated to covering the number.  But beware = Intuition is not the best tool when it comes to this stuff.   The "obvious" stuff is seldom obvious   PM me if you want to know more