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#26
Quote Originally Posted by combato:
Quote Originally Posted by GamblinDAWG:
If you have Excel, you can learn to run Monte Carlo simulations. There are tons of you tube videos that describe how to do this and even a few that teach you how to run simulations of NBA games. But as in anything else, garbage in = garbage out. I would recommend reading everything you can find on the science of sports analytics, maybe even building your own database ( also in Excel ) and run linear regressions on your database. Why? You want find the relevant data points to include in your simulation = non garbage. Excel will also allow you to run linear regressions if you want to that deep. If not, jump in start using things like yards per play, projected plays per game, anything that you would think is correlated to covering the number. But beware = Intuition is not the best tool when it comes to this stuff. The "obvious" stuff is seldom obvious PM me if you want to know more Quote Originally Posted by combato:
Thanks Dawg. I used to be a regular poster here but dropped off in 2016. However, the overall quality of the information has improved greatly so I am dipping back in for awhile. For the record, I generally use 2 basic approaches - Reading the market and running game simulations. I also play around with the S&P+ metrics produced by Bill Connelly who which used to be available at Footballoutsiders.com. Since Bill moved to ESPN in the off season, I don't know if we will have access to his numbers for this year.
Noob question.... how do you run game simulations? My wagers at the moment are independent research, eye test, and reading the market but I’m still new to that.Thanks Dawg. I used to be a regular poster here but dropped off in 2016. However, the overall quality of the information has improved greatly so I am dipping back in for awhile. For the record, I generally use 2 basic approaches - Reading the market and running game simulations. I also play around with the S&P+ metrics produced by Bill Connelly who which used to be available at Footballoutsiders.com. Since Bill moved to ESPN in the off season, I don't know if we will have access to his numbers for this year.
There are 3 required readings if you want to get what I am talking about.
1. Conquering Risk - Will each you to understand linear regression without being a math whiz. Will teach you how to build predictive black box models.
2. Sharper - very good overall. Sharpens you up on what is a good bet and what is a bad bet.
3. Logic of Sports Betting - Recent release. Not analytics but about how to bet smarter
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