Indiana State at Chattanooga:
Indiana State entered the playoffs
at 7-5 out of the top conference with notable wins over FBS Ball State (27-20),
Northern Iowa (20-19) and Liberty (38-19).
Going into their final two regular season games they were 6-4 and arguably
needed to win two straight road games to make the playoffs. After an OT win at Youngstown State, they
actually lost the regular season finale at Western Illinois yet still managed
to make the playoffs as an at-large team.
For the first 28 minutes of last weekend’s playoff game at Eastern
Kentucky, Indiana State looked asleep in their 3rd straight road
game. I watched this game on and off and
they couldn’t stop the run in the first half and their passing game on offense
(supposed strength) did not throw the ball downfield much. Indiana State is average on run D allowing
169 ypc (58th). In the 2nd
half they shaped up and blew out Eastern Kentucky. This week at Chattanooga is their 4th
straight road game!
Chattanooga is 3rd
nationally in Pass Defense (147 ypg) but plays in a conference where a few
teams run the option so the stats are skewed (37th pass efficiency
D). Chattanooga’s 3 losses were all to
solid teams; Central Michigan (16-20), playoff team Jacksonville State (23-26
in OT) at Tennessee (10-45). Against Tennessee
they allowed only 340 yards total and 217 passing yards (efficient at 22 of 29)
and held Tennessee’s rush offense to 123 yards on 42 attempts (2.9 ypc). BTW, CMU had 148 yards on 46 carries (3.2
ypc) but Jacksonville State ran all over them for 285 rushing yards. Chattanooga is 6th nationally in
total defense (282 ypg), 27th in rush D (135 ypg) and 12th
in scoring D (18.5 ppg). On Offense Chattanooga
is a run first team (205 ypg) and averages 186 ypg passing for 35 ppg. The QB is also a run threat with 763 yards
rushing (64 ypg).
Overall, I think 4 straight road
games vs. a team with a solid D is a tough situation for Indiana State. They’re arguably a better team playing a
tougher overall schedule, but Chattanooga did hold their own for the most part
against strong competition. If this game
were played in say, week 4, I’d be more likely to suggest Indiana State, but
not this week against a rested team.
Pick:
Chattanooga -3.5
Not enough time to get into all
games in full detail tonight.
Rematch games are:
Northern Iowa at Illinois State: UNI won 42-28 on 11/1 but at home in the
dome. Also had a kickoff return and
interception return for a TD in this game.
UNI struggled to throw the ball that game (10 of 30 for 118 yrds). This time around is at Illinois State. UNI started the season 3-4 but has won 6
straight including breaking NDSU’s winning streak. They’re arguably playing the best football of
any FCS team in the nation right now.
Despite their 9-4 record, UNI is the 2nd highest FCS team in the sagarin ratings. Extremely tough game to pick this week. Probably the toughest of all 8 games. Illinois State is 3rd/4th
(close) along with Jacksonville State in the Sagarin ratings. It’s too bad these two teams from the same
conference had to play each other this week.
Looks like a final 8 or final 4 matchup to me, not the round of 16. No pick.
Flip a coin for the side. … Illinois State in the rematch, there you
go. Under 57 is much better if you’re
looking for a bet here.
South Dakota State at North Dakota
State: NDSU won at home 37-17
on 11/1. The score was 10-6 in favor of
SDSU at halftime. NDSU took control in
the 3rd going up 20-10 and SDSU narrowed the gap to 20-17 with 12
minutes to play before NDSU scored 17 unanswered points to end the game. 10 of those 17 points were scored on short
field drives of -2 yards and 23 yards.
Despite the game being closer than the final score much of the way, NDSU
did dominate the line of scrimmage. NDSU
gained 290 yards rushing on 53 carries (5.5 ypc) and SDSU gained only 89 yards
on 23 carries (3.9 ypc). In their usual
form, NDSU owned time of possession, 38:20 to 21:40. Other than last season in the playoffs, I’ve
made a living off of NDSU 2nd half Under plays. When they get the lead, they run the play
clock down, run the ball and keep the ball away from the opposing offense. NDSU can dominate a game and “only” win
21-7ish. This weekend I actually lean
SDSU plus all the points (currently +16.5, but I’d wait for +17). If SDSU can score 14 to 17 points again, I
think they have a decent shot at covering, but NDSU wins in control of the
game.
Pick:
South Dakota State +16.5
Montana at Eastern Washington:
EWU won 36-26 on 11/8 in QB
Vernon Adams first game back from injury.
EWU was up 13-3 after the 1st qtr and up again 33-10 mid 3rd
qtr, but could not put away Montana until the final minutes of this game. EWU allowed Montana to pass for 447
yards. EWU threw for 410 yards
themselves. Neither team had much
success running the ball. EWU gained
only 51 yrds on 32 carries (1.6 ypg) and Montana gained only 80 yards on 26
carries (3.1 ypc). Believe the Montana
HC has already announced his retirement after the season ends. This rematch is pretty tough to call ATS, but
I’d lean EWU to keep the petal down this time around and keep scoring to avoid
Montana sticking around this time.
Pick:
Eastern Washinton -9.5
Will have to get to the remaining
games another time, but definitely like Richmond (CAA) +9 as a live dog at Coastal
Carolina (Big South – weak non conf schedule too).
but some of those other guys do !! GL ! get some cash
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