Tuesday Night Write Up (27-11 ATS)

Tuesday Night Troy @ MTSU….not the normal three day breakdown that the Thursday Night games normally receive, but I don’t think this one is as tough to call as some of the others.

MTSU will host the showdown between the top 2 teams in the Sun Belt.  Troy has won the previous 4 meetings but MTSU is the preseason pick to win the conference.  MTSU welcomes their All Conference QB back from a 4 game suspension and should receive a huge boost to their offense.  For some reason people are calling for Dasher to have some rust.  He is a senior and has been practicing through the suspension, I definitely see is addition as an improvement and the 10 other guys in the huddle will be glad to see him there as well.

People looking at these two schedules will probably go ahead and take Troy.  Close games against Bowling Green, Arkansas State, and UAB are nice, but the 3 point decision at Oklahoma State will probably be the push that most bettors will need.  However, when you take a closer look at the numbers, I believe the play is MTSU.

Troy has 66% of their offense coming from the passing game.  Since MTSU should be able to shut down the run (only allowing 3.6 ypc) Troy is going to need an even bigger emphasis on that stat tonight.  This should fall right into MTSU’s hands.  They are holding teams to under 50% completions and have a secondary that features 3 seniors returning from last year and one junior! 

MTSU runs a more balanced attack (55% pass 45% run).  Troy has shown some issues stopping the run (allowing 4.7 ypc) and Memphis might be able to exploit their undersized DL (223, 242, 280, 244) as Memphis is averaging 5.2 ypc.  If Memphis is able to establish a running game, they are going to be dangerous when Dasher runs the PA pass, as he is always a threat to run. 

Both teams are averaging about 6.1 yards per play.  But MTSU gains a defensive advantage as they are only giving up 4.4 (as Troy is allowing 6.0)

MTSU also gains an advantage with the red zone offenses.  Memphis is scoring at an 86% rate, and Troy at a 76%, but as most passing teams do, Troy struggles with converting those Red Zone scores into TD’s and not field goals.  As Troy only has a 38% TD rate, while Memphis boast a 71%. 

MTSU has only been sacked 1 time all year, while Troy has given up 9.  As well, MTSU has 11 sacks on the year.  I don’t usually put too much into this stat, but sacks can stop a drive.  Give MTSU an advantage if they can get a few.

Overall, I believe both teams will find some success on offense.  But MTSU has the advantage on the defensive side.  Troy will move the football, but look for their offense to stall in the Red Zone, and in a close conference game, I’ll gladly take the home team that has the ability to move the football and has not shown a tendency to stall in the Red Zone.

GO BLUE RAIDERS!!!!

BOL

Tuesday Night Troy @ MTSU….not the normal three day breakdown that the Thursday Night games normally receive, but I don’t think this one is as tough to call as some of the others.

MTSU will host the showdown between the top 2 teams in the Sun Belt.  Troy has won the previous 4 meetings but MTSU is the preseason pick to win the conference.  MTSU welcomes their All Conference QB back from a 4 game suspension and should receive a huge boost to their offense.  For some reason people are calling for Dasher to have some rust.  He is a senior and has been practicing through the suspension, I definitely see is addition as an improvement and the 10 other guys in the huddle will be glad to see him there as well.

People looking at these two schedules will probably go ahead and take Troy.  Close games against Bowling Green, Arkansas State, and UAB are nice, but the 3 point decision at Oklahoma State will probably be the push that most bettors will need.  However, when you take a closer look at the numbers, I believe the play is MTSU.

Troy has 66% of their offense coming from the passing game.  Since MTSU should be able to shut down the run (only allowing 3.6 ypc) Troy is going to need an even bigger emphasis on that stat tonight.  This should fall right into MTSU’s hands.  They are holding teams to under 50% completions and have a secondary that features 3 seniors returning from last year and one junior! 

MTSU runs a more balanced attack (55% pass 45% run).  Troy has shown some issues stopping the run (allowing 4.7 ypc) and Memphis might be able to exploit their undersized DL (223, 242, 280, 244) as Memphis is averaging 5.2 ypc.  If Memphis is able to establish a running game, they are going to be dangerous when Dasher runs the PA pass, as he is always a threat to run. 

Both teams are averaging about 6.1 yards per play.  But MTSU gains a defensive advantage as they are only giving up 4.4 (as Troy is allowing 6.0)

MTSU also gains an advantage with the red zone offenses.  Memphis is scoring at an 86% rate, and Troy at a 76%, but as most passing teams do, Troy struggles with converting those Red Zone scores into TD’s and not field goals.  As Troy only has a 38% TD rate, while Memphis boast a 71%. 

MTSU has only been sacked 1 time all year, while Troy has given up 9.  As well, MTSU has 11 sacks on the year.  I don’t usually put too much into this stat, but sacks can stop a drive.  Give MTSU an advantage if they can get a few.

Overall, I believe both teams will find some success on offense.  But MTSU has the advantage on the defensive side.  Troy will move the football, but look for their offense to stall in the Red Zone, and in a close conference game, I’ll gladly take the home team that has the ability to move the football and has not shown a tendency to stall in the Red Zone.

GO BLUE RAIDERS!!!!

BOL     Nice