Rarely have I seen the lines at the open....usually I check them out within a few hours of open......then I start my capping system for the week. I will continue to do so and use it since I want to test it out for at least 3/4 of the season.....but whats exciting is, I am going to lay out a valuable pattern I have noticed with the lines that VEGAS cannot manipulate but YOU CAN if the pattern holds true through the long term....I know I am going to stick with it as well as use my capping system. Should I get a double whammy.......both the observed pattern in play as well as my capping system says its all systems go....whatever I usually would lay in UNITS....I shall double up later in the week...so if you see this...the odds pattern is in effect! So, for instance, my 5 UNIT play would have been a 1O UNIT PLAY while a few of my 2 UNIT plays thankfully, would not have been doubled so here we go with the pattern...............
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Rarely have I seen the lines at the open....usually I check them out within a few hours of open......then I start my capping system for the week. I will continue to do so and use it since I want to test it out for at least 3/4 of the season.....but whats exciting is, I am going to lay out a valuable pattern I have noticed with the lines that VEGAS cannot manipulate but YOU CAN if the pattern holds true through the long term....I know I am going to stick with it as well as use my capping system. Should I get a double whammy.......both the observed pattern in play as well as my capping system says its all systems go....whatever I usually would lay in UNITS....I shall double up later in the week...so if you see this...the odds pattern is in effect! So, for instance, my 5 UNIT play would have been a 1O UNIT PLAY while a few of my 2 UNIT plays thankfully, would not have been doubled so here we go with the pattern...............
Week 1....I went back and uncovered that of the 18 games where the spread moved at least 1.5 pts or more ......the side that TOOK $$$ on the week went 14-4......exceptions being Penn St., LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia St.
I may have missed a couple but nonetheless, a favourable observation for line movers through the week!
Week 2......line movers went 15-6....exceptions to Kansas, Kentucky, Mid Tenn, Illinois, New Mexico and V. Tech. There are two games remaining where the line move applies as I type this....
Boise and Texas Tech....hard to say where these will end up at the half, but I would say that the cover happens at least with one of them.
SO AMAZINGLY, LINE MOVERS of approx. +2 pts or more IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS have covered in games by a 29-10 clip or approx. 75% rate.....which means, if you have 10 of these plays and doubled your units (some of them multi-unit plays), you would be sitting with more UNITS if you doubled up on line movers or at least some of them.....HMMMMM....
Count me in to trying to keep this trend going over the next 6 weeks or so.....use at your own discretion!!
I shall continue to watch the lines carefully every day and track movement but NOW ACT ON IT WITHOUT HESITATION if I feel the game meets my capping system criteria most importantly and NOT take it JUST BECAUSE IT IS MOVING a lot but I am sure, it is still a decent angle to put in your pocket if you like the team that is taking money....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Week 1....I went back and uncovered that of the 18 games where the spread moved at least 1.5 pts or more ......the side that TOOK $$$ on the week went 14-4......exceptions being Penn St., LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia St.
I may have missed a couple but nonetheless, a favourable observation for line movers through the week!
Week 2......line movers went 15-6....exceptions to Kansas, Kentucky, Mid Tenn, Illinois, New Mexico and V. Tech. There are two games remaining where the line move applies as I type this....
Boise and Texas Tech....hard to say where these will end up at the half, but I would say that the cover happens at least with one of them.
SO AMAZINGLY, LINE MOVERS of approx. +2 pts or more IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS have covered in games by a 29-10 clip or approx. 75% rate.....which means, if you have 10 of these plays and doubled your units (some of them multi-unit plays), you would be sitting with more UNITS if you doubled up on line movers or at least some of them.....HMMMMM....
Count me in to trying to keep this trend going over the next 6 weeks or so.....use at your own discretion!!
I shall continue to watch the lines carefully every day and track movement but NOW ACT ON IT WITHOUT HESITATION if I feel the game meets my capping system criteria most importantly and NOT take it JUST BECAUSE IT IS MOVING a lot but I am sure, it is still a decent angle to put in your pocket if you like the team that is taking money....
Are you talking about lines that move with public betting, or reverse line movement, or both? And which side does your system go with? If Dogs are favored over Cats by 10 and the line moves to 12, do you take Dogs -12?
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Are you talking about lines that move with public betting, or reverse line movement, or both? And which side does your system go with? If Dogs are favored over Cats by 10 and the line moves to 12, do you take Dogs -12?
Are you talking about lines that move with public betting, or reverse line movement, or both? And which side does your system go with? If Dogs are favored over Cats by 10 and the line moves to 12, do you take Dogs -12?
Sorry to not get back to you right away.....I cap my matchups using Compughratings and Sagarin.....if I feel the line is too high or too low, then I make it a play. BUT NOW, if I have it as a play and there is significant line movement +1.5 on a low/medium line and 2+ on a higher one, I will up my UNIT plays on some and cut back on the number or plays that I make in total......does that make sense. It doesnt matter if the team I like is a dog, fave or there is reverse line move.....my capping system identifies 'potential spots' and then the line movement directs me likely to a higher % cover as it has so far shown to do.....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by Super_Chicken:
Are you talking about lines that move with public betting, or reverse line movement, or both? And which side does your system go with? If Dogs are favored over Cats by 10 and the line moves to 12, do you take Dogs -12?
Sorry to not get back to you right away.....I cap my matchups using Compughratings and Sagarin.....if I feel the line is too high or too low, then I make it a play. BUT NOW, if I have it as a play and there is significant line movement +1.5 on a low/medium line and 2+ on a higher one, I will up my UNIT plays on some and cut back on the number or plays that I make in total......does that make sense. It doesnt matter if the team I like is a dog, fave or there is reverse line move.....my capping system identifies 'potential spots' and then the line movement directs me likely to a higher % cover as it has so far shown to do.....
I won a 4-team parlay where the lines all moved towards the winning side.
-34.5 to -35.5, take -35.5! Vegas knows something we don't!
Line move from -47 to -46? Leave it or take the other dude. Ie: Oklahoma this week. Failed to cover the 7 TD's.
Total 78.5 to 80..? TAKE THE OVER
Total 40 to 38.5.. Take the UNDER.
...yes but look for even more line movement since the % is still high on the cover.....running 75% cover using my sample size although I did not do this with totals. Nice of you to drop in Mortgage
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:
I won a 4-team parlay where the lines all moved towards the winning side.
-34.5 to -35.5, take -35.5! Vegas knows something we don't!
Line move from -47 to -46? Leave it or take the other dude. Ie: Oklahoma this week. Failed to cover the 7 TD's.
Total 78.5 to 80..? TAKE THE OVER
Total 40 to 38.5.. Take the UNDER.
...yes but look for even more line movement since the % is still high on the cover.....running 75% cover using my sample size although I did not do this with totals. Nice of you to drop in Mortgage
Sorry to not get back to you right away.....I cap my matchups using Compughratings and Sagarin.....if I feel the line is too high or too low, then I make it a play. BUT NOW, if I have it as a play and there is significant line movement +1.5 on a low/medium line and 2+ on a higher one, I will up my UNIT plays on some and cut back on the number or plays that I make in total......does that make sense. It doesnt matter if the team I like is a dog, fave or there is reverse line move.....my capping system identifies 'potential spots' and then the line movement directs me likely to a higher % cover as it has so far shown to do.....
One more thing worth mentioning.....using my RISK CAPITAL ....win lose or draw.....I live with it until the numbers/results start to regress but I don't believe they will ever below 50% over a bundle of a few weeks so you should end up ahead of the game.....just with a little bit of elbow grease/time to figure out which ones. Will this work solely by JUST WATCHING LINE MOVEMENT.....I don't know but I am not going to risk my win% and hard earned trying to find out......rather, let good ole research and stat analysis guide me to some potential winners and THEN watch lines
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Sorry to not get back to you right away.....I cap my matchups using Compughratings and Sagarin.....if I feel the line is too high or too low, then I make it a play. BUT NOW, if I have it as a play and there is significant line movement +1.5 on a low/medium line and 2+ on a higher one, I will up my UNIT plays on some and cut back on the number or plays that I make in total......does that make sense. It doesnt matter if the team I like is a dog, fave or there is reverse line move.....my capping system identifies 'potential spots' and then the line movement directs me likely to a higher % cover as it has so far shown to do.....
One more thing worth mentioning.....using my RISK CAPITAL ....win lose or draw.....I live with it until the numbers/results start to regress but I don't believe they will ever below 50% over a bundle of a few weeks so you should end up ahead of the game.....just with a little bit of elbow grease/time to figure out which ones. Will this work solely by JUST WATCHING LINE MOVEMENT.....I don't know but I am not going to risk my win% and hard earned trying to find out......rather, let good ole research and stat analysis guide me to some potential winners and THEN watch lines
Will post my plays later in the week because I am LOOKING FOR LINE MOVEMENT now rather than trying to plow into as many games that I think will give me the right line.....different philosophy for sure.....still want the tasty early lines too so if you have one....I will get on it right away for 1 UNIT!
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Will post my plays later in the week because I am LOOKING FOR LINE MOVEMENT now rather than trying to plow into as many games that I think will give me the right line.....different philosophy for sure.....still want the tasty early lines too so if you have one....I will get on it right away for 1 UNIT!
Didn't the line move toward Ohio in the Kansas-Ohio game?How are you measuring line movement?
Yes it did....quite a bit and a reverse line too.....and Ohio was one of the successful major line was unsuccessful....not sure if I note that. Its all a matter about already liking the game by whatever criteria you have (I have my own capping system) and then having the confidence in the line move....and as I have indicated, the results in the first 2 weeks bear this out....29-10 to the teams where the line moved to their benefit. I was on Ohio before I discovered this but would have lost by taking Kansas where the line seemed to move. I am definitely not betting ALL line movers....I shall post some plays by Thursday night and maybe as early as tonight....working on it.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by composite:
Didn't the line move toward Ohio in the Kansas-Ohio game?How are you measuring line movement?
Yes it did....quite a bit and a reverse line too.....and Ohio was one of the successful major line was unsuccessful....not sure if I note that. Its all a matter about already liking the game by whatever criteria you have (I have my own capping system) and then having the confidence in the line move....and as I have indicated, the results in the first 2 weeks bear this out....29-10 to the teams where the line moved to their benefit. I was on Ohio before I discovered this but would have lost by taking Kansas where the line seemed to move. I am definitely not betting ALL line movers....I shall post some plays by Thursday night and maybe as early as tonight....working on it.
48 hrs of lines open.....here are the biggest line movers. I will be posting plays once I compare with Sagarin and Compughratings.
Line benefactor
Northwestern 5 pts
Tulane 4.5 pts
Wisconsin 4 pts
E. Carolina 3 pts
Stanford 3 pts
Kansas St. 3 pts
Mid. Tennesee 3 pts
Baylor 2.5 pts
Idaho 2.5 pts
Fresno St. 2.5 pts
W. Kentucky 2.5 pts
Alabama 2.5 pts
Texas 2 pts
Rutgers 2 pts
On watch: Texas St., Nevada, LSU, Louisiana Tech, Marshall,
San Diego St., New Mexico St.
POSTED PLAYS FOR ME SOON....using my capping system and keying on some of these line movers. I may also post a play or 2 where the line is not moving much....very much like my 5 UNIT Michigan play last week at -34.5
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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48 hrs of lines open.....here are the biggest line movers. I will be posting plays once I compare with Sagarin and Compughratings.
Line benefactor
Northwestern 5 pts
Tulane 4.5 pts
Wisconsin 4 pts
E. Carolina 3 pts
Stanford 3 pts
Kansas St. 3 pts
Mid. Tennesee 3 pts
Baylor 2.5 pts
Idaho 2.5 pts
Fresno St. 2.5 pts
W. Kentucky 2.5 pts
Alabama 2.5 pts
Texas 2 pts
Rutgers 2 pts
On watch: Texas St., Nevada, LSU, Louisiana Tech, Marshall,
San Diego St., New Mexico St.
POSTED PLAYS FOR ME SOON....using my capping system and keying on some of these line movers. I may also post a play or 2 where the line is not moving much....very much like my 5 UNIT Michigan play last week at -34.5
UMASS Even .....feel this line should be-3 to -4.5.....UMASS won by 10 last year,....1st road game for FIU....FIU Qb is wonky but should play. What am I missing here? Why is it only a PK? My gain....
2 UNITS PLAYS:
Virginia +4.5
Wisconsin -34
1 UNIT PLAYS:
Arizona St. -19
Alabama -11 (might consider a double....watch for 'soundbites')
Going against the line movement since I believe this game should be Even to +3 max but the home team is +6.5 ......Compughratings rarely lie although Sagarin goes the other way!
Bowling Green@ home 1 UNIT.....(double up if it hits +7/7.5)
MAYBE I-2 UNIT PLAYS: (watching for line changes)
Pittsburgh +6.....feel this line should be -4 at most...if it climbs higher....will double up
Houston -7.5
Temple +8.5
UNLV +13
W. Kentucky -17.5 (will pounce if it heads goes below-17)
Colorado +20
28 MORE GAMES TO CAP........stay tuned
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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My Recommendations:
4 UNIT PLAY:
UMASS Even .....feel this line should be-3 to -4.5.....UMASS won by 10 last year,....1st road game for FIU....FIU Qb is wonky but should play. What am I missing here? Why is it only a PK? My gain....
2 UNITS PLAYS:
Virginia +4.5
Wisconsin -34
1 UNIT PLAYS:
Arizona St. -19
Alabama -11 (might consider a double....watch for 'soundbites')
Going against the line movement since I believe this game should be Even to +3 max but the home team is +6.5 ......Compughratings rarely lie although Sagarin goes the other way!
Bowling Green@ home 1 UNIT.....(double up if it hits +7/7.5)
MAYBE I-2 UNIT PLAYS: (watching for line changes)
Pittsburgh +6.....feel this line should be -4 at most...if it climbs higher....will double up
Houston -7.5
Temple +8.5
UNLV +13
W. Kentucky -17.5 (will pounce if it heads goes below-17)
UMASS Even .....feel this line should be-3 to -4.5.....UMASS won by 10 last year,....1st road game for FIU....FIU Qb is wonky but should play. What am I missing here? Why is it only a PK? My gain....NOW +1.....didn't expect that....REVENGE? I will take home and better team no problem.
Ohio St. -2....give me better talent, better coach and motivated team
2 UNITS PLAYS:
Missouri +6.5....will double this if goes to -7/7.5
Virginia +4.5
Wisconsin -34
Nebraska -3....this is not a pickem and BIG10 is better than PAC10
East Carolina +3.....should be a pickem or +1 S.Carolina
NC St. -23.5....woulda loved to get at open but maybe I would have ignored it?....I have a line of at least -28
Texas AM +3.5....might double this bet...watching 'talk' carefully
USC +10 ....should be only -6.5/7
1 UNIT PLAYS:
Arizona St. -19 (now -19.5)
Sparty +7.5
Alabama -11 (might consider a double....watch for 'soundbites')
San Diego -10.5 ....feel the line could be -13.5 reasonably
Charlotte +3....should be pickem
Navy -5,5....yes, going against the grain....over reaction
UCLA -3.5...BYU beat up after holy war....better team is UCLA
Louisiana Tech +10.5.....might up this play with the right info
Going against the line movement since I believe this game should be Even to +3 max but the home team is +6.5 ......Compughratings rarely lie although Sagarin goes the other way!
Bowling Green@ home 1 UNIT.....(double up if it hits +7/7.5)
GL everyone.....19 plays (love this week.....33 UNITS)
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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My Recommendations:
4 UNIT PLAY:
UMASS Even .....feel this line should be-3 to -4.5.....UMASS won by 10 last year,....1st road game for FIU....FIU Qb is wonky but should play. What am I missing here? Why is it only a PK? My gain....NOW +1.....didn't expect that....REVENGE? I will take home and better team no problem.
Ohio St. -2....give me better talent, better coach and motivated team
2 UNITS PLAYS:
Missouri +6.5....will double this if goes to -7/7.5
Virginia +4.5
Wisconsin -34
Nebraska -3....this is not a pickem and BIG10 is better than PAC10
East Carolina +3.....should be a pickem or +1 S.Carolina
NC St. -23.5....woulda loved to get at open but maybe I would have ignored it?....I have a line of at least -28
Texas AM +3.5....might double this bet...watching 'talk' carefully
USC +10 ....should be only -6.5/7
1 UNIT PLAYS:
Arizona St. -19 (now -19.5)
Sparty +7.5
Alabama -11 (might consider a double....watch for 'soundbites')
San Diego -10.5 ....feel the line could be -13.5 reasonably
Charlotte +3....should be pickem
Navy -5,5....yes, going against the grain....over reaction
UCLA -3.5...BYU beat up after holy war....better team is UCLA
Louisiana Tech +10.5.....might up this play with the right info
Going against the line movement since I believe this game should be Even to +3 max but the home team is +6.5 ......Compughratings rarely lie although Sagarin goes the other way!
Bowling Green@ home 1 UNIT.....(double up if it hits +7/7.5)
GL everyone.....19 plays (love this week.....33 UNITS)
What about when these lines move back the other way day of? Or does day of movement not count? I normally disregard all day of movement in my picks...
Bpickin, its a judgement call. I am going to chart the trend and play some of the line movers for profit$$.....hopefully. Week 3 seems like a good week to start and will go 2 more weeks after, then reassess.....chuck it then or ride it out the rest of the season and into bowls
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:
What about when these lines move back the other way day of? Or does day of movement not count? I normally disregard all day of movement in my picks...
Bpickin, its a judgement call. I am going to chart the trend and play some of the line movers for profit$$.....hopefully. Week 3 seems like a good week to start and will go 2 more weeks after, then reassess.....chuck it then or ride it out the rest of the season and into bowls
Here are the biggest line movers on the week based on the open. I have played some of these based on the fact that line moving teams of 2pts or more have covered at a rate of 29-10. To clarify, its the teams that have TAKEN money that have that rate.
( taking $$$)
Kansas St. 6.5 pts
Wisconsin 5.5
Tulane 5
UL Monroe 4
NC State 3.5
Duke 3
Mid. Tennesee 3
E. Carolina 3
Northwestern 3
UNLV 3
Rutgers 3
UCONN 2.5
Fresno St. 2.5
Pittsburgh 2,5
Army 2.5
UTEP 2.5
Virginia 2.5
Texas St. 2
W. Kentucky 2
Stanford 2
Marshall 2
Alabama 2
Colorado 2
23 teams to track.....
I'm playing 5 (see above posts) Wisky, Virginia, ECU, NCs,t. and Alabama
My capping system tells me to fade Mid Tenn, Tulane and Stanford so I did........yes, I know, I need help if I am not following my system but the plays are in and hopefully next week I learn my lesson.....or not.
GL today
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Here are the biggest line movers on the week based on the open. I have played some of these based on the fact that line moving teams of 2pts or more have covered at a rate of 29-10. To clarify, its the teams that have TAKEN money that have that rate.
( taking $$$)
Kansas St. 6.5 pts
Wisconsin 5.5
Tulane 5
UL Monroe 4
NC State 3.5
Duke 3
Mid. Tennesee 3
E. Carolina 3
Northwestern 3
UNLV 3
Rutgers 3
UCONN 2.5
Fresno St. 2.5
Pittsburgh 2,5
Army 2.5
UTEP 2.5
Virginia 2.5
Texas St. 2
W. Kentucky 2
Stanford 2
Marshall 2
Alabama 2
Colorado 2
23 teams to track.....
I'm playing 5 (see above posts) Wisky, Virginia, ECU, NCs,t. and Alabama
My capping system tells me to fade Mid Tenn, Tulane and Stanford so I did........yes, I know, I need help if I am not following my system but the plays are in and hopefully next week I learn my lesson.....or not.
The old reverse line movement angle. Its a classic case of Vegas setting up a trap
I have that at the back of my mind......just offering info to use at your own risk. Often times, my pattern is hesitation in the past and by the time I catch onto a pattern, it reverses like you say or YES....Vegas does start to adjust if they can.....but if you think about it, a lot of early week line movement is sharp on a lot of games as you can see so it becomes hard for Vegas to 'control/affect/fix-if-you-are-inclined-to think this way......I just wish to hit 60% or better on a lot of plays and make $$...time will tell.
GL today
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:
The old reverse line movement angle. Its a classic case of Vegas setting up a trap
I have that at the back of my mind......just offering info to use at your own risk. Often times, my pattern is hesitation in the past and by the time I catch onto a pattern, it reverses like you say or YES....Vegas does start to adjust if they can.....but if you think about it, a lot of early week line movement is sharp on a lot of games as you can see so it becomes hard for Vegas to 'control/affect/fix-if-you-are-inclined-to think this way......I just wish to hit 60% or better on a lot of plays and make $$...time will tell.
Tail the steam early and late if you want.....but cap the games case by case and then......make your selections. I believe you can't blindly pick all the line movers since the line moves may be 'false' like Vegas can do occasionally
I personally think taking early steam is best because SHARPS have the werewithal to take poor numbers early and Vegas has to walk a tightrope so to speak
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by green2145:
So you're saying tail the late steam?
Tail the steam early and late if you want.....but cap the games case by case and then......make your selections. I believe you can't blindly pick all the line movers since the line moves may be 'false' like Vegas can do occasionally
I personally think taking early steam is best because SHARPS have the werewithal to take poor numbers early and Vegas has to walk a tightrope so to speak
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