Underrated teams, please feel free to add with explanation...

Alright so I think there's a ton of value at finding under the radar teams and betting them ATS until the market catches up.  Theres also the benefit of being able to bet their season win total... 

In no specific order, A few teams I personally feel are underrated: 1. Texas 2. Duke 3. Texas AM 4. Washington 5. Tennessee

I think I'll start with Duke and why I consider them to be underrated.  The biggest reason is that casual fans look at Duke football as a nothing program, so people can't really comprehend Duke being able to compete with programs like FSU/Clemson/ND/Miami etc..

To serious CFB bettors/fans, I think people are starting to understand that this is a talented roster, but I'm not sure they really believe it.  It's hard to explain how a team that doesn't have a player that could've played at one of the CFB powerhouses.  Regardless they've accumulated a lot of talent in Durham and they return almost their entire roster.  Obviously the most important position determining success is Quarterback and Duke has a potential star who I could see shoot up draft boards when he decides to declare.  Riley Leonard has all of the tools to be exceptional, it's hard to imagine how he fell through the cracks, but the best QBs in the NFL have been under recruited.  As a first year starter he threw for 3k yards 20 Tds and 6 ints, but he also had another 700 yds rushing w 13tds.  This kid extends plays, throws in tight windows, and is a legit threat on the ground.  To get an idea of how athletic he is, he has a 75 yd td run.  Even though they went 9-4 last year and then beat UCF in their bowl game I don't think people understand that this is a team who nearly went undefeated in the acc.  They had a 2 pt loss to Pitt, a 3 pt loss to Gtech, and a 3 pt loss @ unc.  

They return 8 players who are getting preseason all ACC/All American acclaim.  Including one of the best Oline in CFB which includes Graham Barton who is projected to be one of the first OTs drafted next year.  All three of  their wrs return and they're dynamic, as are their RBs.  Rewatching a few of their games from last season, I was really surprised I didn't recognize at the time how good they were.  They had some issues in their kicking game, otherwise they likely go to OT vs a high powered UNC offense that won 38-35.  Their offense returns 9 starters

Defensively theyre surprisingly talented, most notably they return all 4 starting lineman, and two really talented DBs.  This is a talented defense that only allowed 22 ppg last year.  The biggest difference is their schedule, last year they escaped FSU, Clemson and Notre Dame.  

Assuming there's progression from this young roster who had a first year starting QB, several inexperienced players, and a first year head coach and OC in Mike Elko.  I think this could be a really tough opponent who will be competitive all season, with the chance of pulling an upset or two.  

I also believe that young teams with new coaching staffs can really benefit from making a bowl game, getting an additional 15 practices and building momentum which can lead into the next season.  I think they can build on last seasons success that had them going 9-4 and finishing the season with a 30-13 bowl win vs UCF. 

@alopez14325

 Rutgers over 4 wins looks enticing. Solid coaching, decent defense, open at home against a Northwestern team in shambles. Next game Temple at home, Wagner at home also. That's three wins with nine more games to notch two wins. Can't see them doing any worse than a push. 

OP, good stuff :)

IMO, the most interesting name in your list is Texas A&M.... i don't really have an opinion on it though.

I would be careful on Duke....... love the QB and the coach..... BUT, these elite private universities seem to get killed by transfer activity. lots of guys out, very few in.... look at it from a player's perspective. go to Duke/Stanford/Vandy/NW/etc., get the "gold ticket" degree in 4 years (3 years??), and then do a year or two of really focussed football work at another much lesser academic school.

not sure washington will overachieve this year... but there is a thought that they'll have a really good front 7 which they did not have last year (of course, it's many of the same players)

i'm mostly a Pac 12 and MWC guy... off the top of my head..

bullish

Cal

ASU 

WSU

CSU

hawaii (really putting my neck out here)

bearish

stanford

UCLA

i was bearish on Wyoming but they didn't lose as many key players to portal as i thought.

unlv (lost tons of guys in portal)

 teams i'm watching really closely early on = ASU, Oregon State (lost alot of good defenders, but great coach and new potentially mega-stud QB) and like the whole world Colorado

a few other teams i might be bearish on, but i like the coach and usually that turns bearish into "no play"

i like the O/U and specifically i'm more an UNDER player than OVER., alot more

one off-the-cuff comment is that "mega transfer portal teams" haven't worked that well IMO....... no data to back it up, just a feel

but big "transfer out" teams are obvious FADES....... i will say though that off-season analysis affects the line much more than it did 10-15 years ago. inclined to go the opposite way on some names.

Stanford i think could be putrid bad for a pac 12 team..... 1 awesome olineman vs. 7-8 previously.. they went to a safety as #1 tailback last year, and i see he's still #2 on the depth chart..... very thin roster, especially junior/senior.

@jimrockford22

Agree with you on Duke. They should be a solid team this year. But they beat only 2 teams with winning records last year. This year they have 8. Much different schedule this time around. They open with Clemson. That's no fun. They won 9 games ATS last year. So everybody loves them this year. But i've been studying ATS trends for a long time, and teams who come out of nowhere and win 9+ games ATS, invariably have a habit of falling on their faces the next season, even when everything looks positive and the bulk of their team returns. The team chemistry and the flow of the season is never the same two years in a row. 

Clemson -12 is my number one pick in week 1 for the reasons that you cited...