Week 0 Post-Mortem (Reactions & Analysis)

Going to try and post these every sunday or monday if I can. Will probably pick 5-7 games once we have a full week of games. I may try and do a weekly post for the teams playing multiple QB’s  (Bama, Ohio State, UCLA) early in the season. I watch all of these games live or a condensed version on Youtube. Tough week for me with a big donut on the board. We'll get em next week. This is and will always be a safe space to rant for anyone that needs it lol!

Navy vs Notre Dame

This one was over quickly. A few things stood out to me from this one. One was the speed on Notre Dame’s defense. It felt like they were just a step faster than Navy. Notre Dame just ate up space and angles all game. Second was Notre Dame’s playcalling. I was skeptical on the offensive coordinator hire but I thought Parker called a solid game. He used some interesting personnel packages and wasn’t too predictable. He had a good feel for when to call the homerun shot and sneak in screens against the blitz. Obviously it’s a lot easier to call plays when your offense is averaging almost 6 yards a carry so we’ll see what happens when ND faces NC State, Clemson & USC but still an impressive performance from the Irish. I wouldn’t be too worried if I was a Navy fan or season win total ticket holder, Notre Dame showed an elite defense with a solid offense. The one thing that would concern me is them only completing 3 passes after the talk all off season was about this modernized offense. Overall, a complete, disciplined performance for Marcus Freeman and the Irish. 

Ohio vs San Diego

If you were on Ohio like me, this one hurt. Ohio +3 or better felt like the right side in this one after watching the game but SDSU ML at the closing price also felt like the right side too if that makes sense. The trajectory of this game obviously changed when Rourke got injured but Ohio still had a chance to at the very least cover the spread. This game was won/lost in the red zone. SDSU converted on all 3 of their trips and Ohio was 2/4. I thought the Ohio defense was better than expected but SDSU’s offense was also lacking at times. Ohio outgained SDSU 380 to 309 but also ran 26 more plays. Ohio’s three interceptions were really the story of the game. One of them wasn’t the backup, Harris’ fault, he was hit as he was throwing but he definitely held onto the ball a little too long all game. He was obviously in a tough spot coming off the bench on the road in week 0 but lack of first team reps don’t really explain poor decision making. SDSU’s defense looked a notch down from the normal defense we are used to seeing from them, giving up 380 total yards, 278 through the air and allowing 26 first downs. It was week 0 so we’ll see what happens when they get to conference play. Overall, Ohio should be okay if they get Rourke back and SDSU will have to make some improvements defensively before facing teams like UCLA, Oregon State, Boise State and San Jose State. I don’t know if they’ll be able to match the offensive output of those teams.

UTEP vs Jacksonville State

Holy Dana Dimmel LOL. Another one that hurt if you were on UTEP like me but to be honest they deserved to lose that game lol. I’ll get to the playcalling later. Rich Rod and Jacksonville state definitely showed that they belong. They ran for 208 yards on 4.73 yards per carry. Their defense is a step behind as expected but rushing for over 200 yards against one of the better run stopping defense in Week 0 is definitely an accomplishment. Now for the fighting Dana Dimmels. They outgained Jax St by almost 100 yards and averaged 5 yards per play. Very rarely would I say a team that dominated the box score like UTEP deserved to lose but the decision making in that final sequence they deserved to be punished for it. For those that weren’t watching, UTEP was in scoring position with under a minute left and opted to throw the ball on both 3rd & 1 and 4th & 1. Not to mention the 3rd down play call was a low percentage goal line fade. These are the types of decisions that get head coaches fired. 

UMASS vs New Mexico State

Okay UMASS!! They are definitely not the worst team in the country any more (look out FIU). All jokes, aside this was a really solid performance from UMASS. The box score got a little wonky with 48 points scored in the 4th quarter but make no mistake about it, UMASS will be competitive this year. This defense plays fast and they are aggressive. Offensively, they were pretty balanced. They also took care of the ball which is critical when facing teams that are more talented than you. On the other side of the ball, I just don’t understand the Diego Pavia hype. This kid is just reckless. He feels like a turnover or negative play waiting to happen. The box score looked okay going 16 for 27 with 248 passing yards and two interceptions but I just think this kid will lose you more games than he wins because of decision making. The pick 6 he threw at the end of the game was a really poor read of a somewhat basic cover 2 zone coverage. No excuse for an FBS level quarterback. I'm having a hard time finding three wins on this New Mexico state schedule now. 

Hawaii vs Vanderbilt

Hawaii was another surprise that a lot of folks on this forum saw coming. Thanks to them, I locked in Hawaii +9 and +240 vs Stanford a few weeks ago. I thought Hawaii’s quarterback played well. He showed a good understanding of the offense. Would like to see him take better care of the ball. The goal line interception really killed them. Hawaii really outplayed Vandy in this one and it’s kinda going under the radar. They outgained Vandy 391 to 297. Had 6.5 yards per play to Vandy’s 5.3. Averaged almost 10 yards per pass attempt and more first downs. The biggest bright spot to me was Hawaii’s trench play. They really held up at the point of attack, holding Vandy to 39 rushing yards. If they continue to play like that, they will surprise some teams this year, especially at home.

Quick note on the Stanford game. I do think anything under 4 points is an overreaction to what we just saw. The line certainly should’ve came down a little but without having seen this Stanford team, I don’t see much value at Hawaii at +3.5 or +150 or anything like that.

Appreciate comments.   I did awful.  Followed a capper on here.. and did awful….   

Hawaii did not out play vandy.... well the final like 7 mins yeah..... they were down 21 in the 4th before vandy just relaxed and let them score 2 easy tds

Great analysis and writeups I'll look forward to your insights this year 

@Mskeets

 Man. Right there with ya..  Happens to the best of em. Just how it goes sometimes but it’s a long season! Good luck. 

@Whodat0921

 I hear ya. I would say Hawaii exceeded expectations even when they were down. Box scores obviously don’t tell always tell the final story but it felt like Hawaii earned that cover. When I say a team outplayed another team I’m usually speaking in terms of the point spread. 

@gman21000

 Thanks Gman! Good luck this year. 

USC vs San Jose State

This was a pretty entertaining game. Good call to everyone who was on the over here. Definitely the right side. Offensively, USC looks like they’ll have another top 5 offense.  Their new freshman receiver Zachariah Branch is a game changer. He had 166 all purpose yards with one receiving touchdown and a dynamic kick off return. Already starting to hear some Reggie Bush chatter. I’m not read to go that far yet but I will say he’s the type of player that will hurt you if he gets 10-15 touches a game.Not too much to be worried about on that side of the ball though I would’ve liked to see their offensive line control San Jose state a little more than they did. San Jose’s D line felt like they got the better of USC more than a few times, forcing a few pressures and hurries.

Defensively, I’m not ready to push the panic button for USC. Obviously giving up 28 points and almost 400 total yards to a mountain west team isn’t great but SJSU is no slouch. Chevan Cordeiro is actually one of the better QBs USC will face this year. San Jose State flashed signs of a top 30 offense. I wasn’t impressed by them especially given the fact that their best receiver was out with an injury. USC’s defense may be better than last year, just this isn’t the game we would’ve seen the results. I do think USC’s big transfer from Georgia, Bear Alexander is in for a rude awakening though. Felt like he saw a fair share of chips and double teams. There’s a difference in playing on a defensive front with multiple first rounders at Georgia where they can’t key in on stopping one guy and USC where you’re the top dog. I didn’t feel like he made much of an impact because he didn’t see a lot of 1:1 match ups. Overall, I’ll wait for more data points on USC but the way that offense looked, this defense just needs to be average for the Trojans to take a step forward this year. 

@GeauxCap

awful. and if you go to the utep football website and watch the presser from today, he said he would do it again the same...no remorse for the play calls, of which i thought were the worst in recent memory. they have a Rhino package...use it.  run the butthole dive...QB sneak, something to secure the first down. he said he was playing "for the win", and wanted two cracks at a TD with Sr. lead players...well FFS. get the 1st and you have 4 chances at the touchdown. poor coaching, and poor overal reflection of an important pivotal point int he game. 

@steponaduck

Just watched the presser.. Absolutely brutal. That’s one of those losses that stuck with me through the weekend. One of those games that reminds you how powerless we are as bettors. At least try to run it once! Oh well onto the next week. 

@ceveche88

 Thanks man! Super important element that has improved my picks over the years.