Week 1 Line Guesses 2012----DEGEN Special

Corley - I seem to recall that deficiency with Wyoming...Texas has been down for a few years, but we are coming back...in my opinion, we, we have 3 RB's with the potential of Trent Richardson.  yes, I know, that is a lofty statement,  but I believe it is true.   If Harshin's scheme can kick in and Ash can just not F it up, I think Texas will surprise some people this year.

I have a rule not to bet on Texas..for the obvious homer issues...but, against Wyoming and Bob Davies New Mexico team in week 2, it may be a good bet.   I hope you guys will keep me grounded if I start drinking too much burndt orange Kool-Aid! 

Corley - I have done a prelim cap on the 1st five weeks (there are 5 Saturday's in September this year).

I agree that Texas will be improved. I concur that David Ash will do a better job managing the game. However, I think Texas will open -32 v. Wyoming at home. From my preliminary perspective, it's not a matter of how improved Texas will be, but the basis of the comp. Yes, the Cowboys were run over by a descent temple running game. But Christensen has 8 returning starters on D that have a chip on their shoulders. Brett Smith seems like a respectable QB and he has 7of his top 8 WR's returner. BS was MWC freshmen of the year last year... In addition, Wyoming beat Air Force 25-17 as a 16 point dog at AF. They also beat SD St, covered at Boise, and defeated their arch rival Col Stand covered at home against TCU.

My advice, that I will personally follow, unless something other information surfaces, is to pass on Texas in the first week (sparing a favorable spread like 24 or less), and wait until New Mexico in week 2 and at Ole Miss in week 3. In essence, I don't believe Wyoming is the patsy of say North Texas, or Akron, or New Mexico, or Buffalo in week one. They have continuity at the coaching spot, QB spot and a vow to improve a porous run D.

I think Texas wins big, but it will be too close to call to place a wager to cover -32 at home against an upstart Wyoming Team.

My prediction

Texas 38

Wyoming 10

I think the line will open around 30 and increase to 32.5 by game time.

Take a pass on Texas in week 1, watch them closely, and pounce in weeks 2 and 3 if it appears that the passing game is a legit threat and the D is as nasty as everyone says it will be,

My prelim week 1 (subject to revision)

LSU - 43 over N Texas

UCF - 28 over Akron

Oklahoma - 30 over UTEP

Take care...college football season can't get here soon enough.

thanks for the feedback - you are astute in that I am rock solid on LSU and UCF, but still evaluating OU v UTEP. The game is in El Paso.  It is a replacement game for OU for TCU joining the Big XII.   In addition, Price is on the hotset and has the spring and August camp to prep for OU.

But, UTEP has marginal talent.  OU get Whaley back.  Even with the loss of Franks and Reynolds, OU, will just redistribute to 4 and 5 star WR's  Landry Jones came back to win a Heisman and be a 1st round pick.     I think BG Bob will want to set the tone for the season  with a big win at UTEP.   BG Bob has a rep for destroying (running up the score) on Texas schools.  Though OU does not rely on Texas like it has in the past (Adrian Peterson et al) and it does recruit nationally, because it can, Texas is still a fertile recruiting ground.  The chance to destroy a verion of The University of Texas (though it be El Paso) will motivate his players and get them focussed.  OU has a great O Line, great secondary, outstanding leaders at LB with Word and Nelson, and McFarland anchoring the line.  UTEP lost there top 3 rushers including banyard.     UTEP plays teams liek University of Houston tough in El Paso, but I think the talent differential is just too huge.   

OU had a dispointing year last year.  Vennebles left for Clemson, Mike Stoops rejoined OU as DC, and with the Franks and Reynolds suspensions, OU seems to have a chip on its shoulders.  Barring any key injurings to Stills or Jones, I think OU opens a can of whoop ass on a Pice coached Texas team.

Oklahoma 49

UTEP 7