What's going on everyone.....yeah last year was tough....down around 10-15 units as I recall...stop posting about halfway with no feel for the season....blaming the corona, no spring, late scratches and the rest....still 22 of the last 25 seasons profitable and feeling good about this season....got some early ones in....limits fairly tight with books so will add some when available....checking out a couple other games and totals later....all the best this season
Tennessee -32 (1.7) Auburn -36 (1.7) Alabama -17 (-115) (1.7) LSU -4 (1.7) Ohio St -13 (1.3) Baylor -13 (1.3) Michigan -17 (1) Ole Miss -7 (-115) (1) Michigan St +6 (0.75) Army +3 (0.75) Stanford -2 (0.75)
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
What's going on everyone.....yeah last year was tough....down around 10-15 units as I recall...stop posting about halfway with no feel for the season....blaming the corona, no spring, late scratches and the rest....still 22 of the last 25 seasons profitable and feeling good about this season....got some early ones in....limits fairly tight with books so will add some when available....checking out a couple other games and totals later....all the best this season
Tennessee -32 (1.7) Auburn -36 (1.7) Alabama -17 (-115) (1.7) LSU -4 (1.7) Ohio St -13 (1.3) Baylor -13 (1.3) Michigan -17 (1) Ole Miss -7 (-115) (1) Michigan St +6 (0.75) Army +3 (0.75) Stanford -2 (0.75)
Great to see you Nos! Last year was mediocre for a lot of folks. You are a legend here on Covers. There is no need to caveat. I like the week 1 Mississippi Play, and I will research it more. I love the QB Coral and the Kiffen O. Hopefully, their D will be improved.
If I may ask, what do you think about UCLA -14 (estimate) over Hawaii in week 0 and Oklahoma -22 (estimate) over @Tulane in week 1? Thank you in advance.
Good luck this season!
LonghornHoosier
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Great to see you Nos! Last year was mediocre for a lot of folks. You are a legend here on Covers. There is no need to caveat. I like the week 1 Mississippi Play, and I will research it more. I love the QB Coral and the Kiffen O. Hopefully, their D will be improved.
If I may ask, what do you think about UCLA -14 (estimate) over Hawaii in week 0 and Oklahoma -22 (estimate) over @Tulane in week 1? Thank you in advance.
Are you playing all those games? Lotta big chalk on alot of big names. Every game is unique unto itself but even oddsmakers are "feeling" out college teams game 1. Seems like plays the general public would also make. Doesn't mean you won't do well, myself, lesser games played, week one especially, and I like to take points whenever possible, again early on, when we and the oddsmakers are finding out about these teams. Vegas knows the general public will bet on the big name schools. Still alot of time until week 1, someone somewhere is gonna get hurt prior to, we all know that. GL with your plays.
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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@nostradamus12
Are you playing all those games? Lotta big chalk on alot of big names. Every game is unique unto itself but even oddsmakers are "feeling" out college teams game 1. Seems like plays the general public would also make. Doesn't mean you won't do well, myself, lesser games played, week one especially, and I like to take points whenever possible, again early on, when we and the oddsmakers are finding out about these teams. Vegas knows the general public will bet on the big name schools. Still alot of time until week 1, someone somewhere is gonna get hurt prior to, we all know that. GL with your plays.
So what is your definition of the Big Name schools...mine, Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Florida, Auburn, Texas A&M, Penn State, and Notre Dame...I think Nos has five out of eleven of those on his card...Did I leave any out?
You make a good point, but I challenge that in the first 3 weeks, the books are almost as clueless as the public. In addition, Nos got these lines early, wherever his book, prior to public appreciation in the spreads and 98% of the public bettors have not jumped on the action yet. Finally, in September, more likely than not, a lot of these big name schools will cover as favorites against patsy opposition...
I am not trying to give you a hard time, but you sound like big dog guy. As everyone on covers knows, I am a big fave guy, looking for value in the heavy public sentiment to play faves...I am just curious on your leans for week 1...GL
Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
@nostradamus12 Are you playing all those games? Lotta big chalk on alot of big names. Every game is unique unto itself but even oddsmakers are "feeling" out college teams game 1. Seems like plays the general public would also make. Doesn't mean you won't do well, myself, lesser games played, week one especially, and I like to take points whenever possible, again early on, when we and the oddsmakers are finding out about these teams. Vegas knows the general public will bet on the big name schools. Still alot of time until week 1, someone somewhere is gonna get hurt prior to, we all know that. GL with your plays.
LonghornHoosier
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So what is your definition of the Big Name schools...mine, Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Florida, Auburn, Texas A&M, Penn State, and Notre Dame...I think Nos has five out of eleven of those on his card...Did I leave any out?
You make a good point, but I challenge that in the first 3 weeks, the books are almost as clueless as the public. In addition, Nos got these lines early, wherever his book, prior to public appreciation in the spreads and 98% of the public bettors have not jumped on the action yet. Finally, in September, more likely than not, a lot of these big name schools will cover as favorites against patsy opposition...
I am not trying to give you a hard time, but you sound like big dog guy. As everyone on covers knows, I am a big fave guy, looking for value in the heavy public sentiment to play faves...I am just curious on your leans for week 1...GL
Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
@nostradamus12 Are you playing all those games? Lotta big chalk on alot of big names. Every game is unique unto itself but even oddsmakers are "feeling" out college teams game 1. Seems like plays the general public would also make. Doesn't mean you won't do well, myself, lesser games played, week one especially, and I like to take points whenever possible, again early on, when we and the oddsmakers are finding out about these teams. Vegas knows the general public will bet on the big name schools. Still alot of time until week 1, someone somewhere is gonna get hurt prior to, we all know that. GL with your plays.
You can give me a hard time, my record on Covers speaks for itself, all documented. Doing this a long time, you won't hurt my feelings. I look at every game differently as they are all unique. I play the games I like, sometimes I lay points, you can catch some blowouts in college, sometimes I take points. I speak in generality early in the season we both agree oddsmakers too are figuring these teams out. But more often than not you're not going to get the benefit of the doubt pointspread wise with some of the big names. Any good capper will tell you that because that's where Joe Public will flock too. Again, doesn't mean Joe P won't win a particular game or two but Vegas wasn't built on losing. Surprised you've never seen my write-ups. You will come September, College and NFL. GL in your plays!
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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@LonghornHoosier
You can give me a hard time, my record on Covers speaks for itself, all documented. Doing this a long time, you won't hurt my feelings. I look at every game differently as they are all unique. I play the games I like, sometimes I lay points, you can catch some blowouts in college, sometimes I take points. I speak in generality early in the season we both agree oddsmakers too are figuring these teams out. But more often than not you're not going to get the benefit of the doubt pointspread wise with some of the big names. Any good capper will tell you that because that's where Joe Public will flock too. Again, doesn't mean Joe P won't win a particular game or two but Vegas wasn't built on losing. Surprised you've never seen my write-ups. You will come September, College and NFL. GL in your plays!
Also, I don't play alot of games maybe 2-3 a day, maybe just one. And the one or two I really like I'll write-up, not just a prediction, my reasons why. And over the years I've been fortunate and consistent with them... except last year I did a couple only NFL maybe one in college. I think we can all agree to throw last year out but looks like we're back to normal this season.
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
0
Also, I don't play alot of games maybe 2-3 a day, maybe just one. And the one or two I really like I'll write-up, not just a prediction, my reasons why. And over the years I've been fortunate and consistent with them... except last year I did a couple only NFL maybe one in college. I think we can all agree to throw last year out but looks like we're back to normal this season.
Look forward to it...One anti-public dog I like in week 1 is Miami +18 over Alabama. I am not impressed with QB Bryce Young. I will only play 2 to 3 college game per week, normally on the side ATS. I probably won't play Miami, because, its not good to bet against Saban, and Miami in general lacks discipline. But, I can understand why folks may be on the dog. Today, July 12, 2021, I like @UCLA -16 over Hawaii in week 0, Oklahoma -22.5 over @Tulane, and Mississippi -8 over Louisville @Atlanta. I am a fundamental capper, who validates with statistical and technical. I will post 2 to 4 picks per week on Covers (just college football, my specialty) with predicted scores and write ups. People like to make fun of me, since I almost always pick faves. I have been on here for 14 years, and I have had an overwelming majority of profitable years. I will look to you for those value picks including the 'Live Dogz"! Cheers and Good Luck!
.
Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
@LonghornHoosier You can give me a hard time, my record on Covers speaks for itself, all documented. Doing this a long time, you won't hurt my feelings. I look at every game differently as they are all unique. I play the games I like, sometimes I lay points, you can catch some blowouts in college, sometimes I take points. I speak in generality early in the season we both agree oddsmakers too are figuring these teams out. But more often than not you're not going to get the benefit of the doubt pointspread wise with some of the big names. Any good capper will tell you that because that's where Joe Public will flock too. Again, doesn't mean Joe P won't win a particular game or two but Vegas wasn't built on losing. Surprised you've never seen my write-ups. You will come September, College and NFL. GL in your plays!
LonghornHoosier
0
Look forward to it...One anti-public dog I like in week 1 is Miami +18 over Alabama. I am not impressed with QB Bryce Young. I will only play 2 to 3 college game per week, normally on the side ATS. I probably won't play Miami, because, its not good to bet against Saban, and Miami in general lacks discipline. But, I can understand why folks may be on the dog. Today, July 12, 2021, I like @UCLA -16 over Hawaii in week 0, Oklahoma -22.5 over @Tulane, and Mississippi -8 over Louisville @Atlanta. I am a fundamental capper, who validates with statistical and technical. I will post 2 to 4 picks per week on Covers (just college football, my specialty) with predicted scores and write ups. People like to make fun of me, since I almost always pick faves. I have been on here for 14 years, and I have had an overwelming majority of profitable years. I will look to you for those value picks including the 'Live Dogz"! Cheers and Good Luck!
.
Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
@LonghornHoosier You can give me a hard time, my record on Covers speaks for itself, all documented. Doing this a long time, you won't hurt my feelings. I look at every game differently as they are all unique. I play the games I like, sometimes I lay points, you can catch some blowouts in college, sometimes I take points. I speak in generality early in the season we both agree oddsmakers too are figuring these teams out. But more often than not you're not going to get the benefit of the doubt pointspread wise with some of the big names. Any good capper will tell you that because that's where Joe Public will flock too. Again, doesn't mean Joe P won't win a particular game or two but Vegas wasn't built on losing. Surprised you've never seen my write-ups. You will come September, College and NFL. GL in your plays!
What’s up NOS? Good luck this year! Solid card and I really like Ole Piss but I may wait and just take their team total over as it remains to be seen if they can stop anyone on defense- Sooners on my radar as well as the Longhorns...my local boys ULL only getting +9.5 vs Texas really gives me pause- The Rajun Cajuns return 20 starters and have some really big transfers- they were second in pass efficiency on defense last year and should have another solid Top 25 type ball club. I need to look more at that one but I just can’t see them hanging for 4 quarters with the Longhorns-
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What’s up NOS? Good luck this year! Solid card and I really like Ole Piss but I may wait and just take their team total over as it remains to be seen if they can stop anyone on defense- Sooners on my radar as well as the Longhorns...my local boys ULL only getting +9.5 vs Texas really gives me pause- The Rajun Cajuns return 20 starters and have some really big transfers- they were second in pass efficiency on defense last year and should have another solid Top 25 type ball club. I need to look more at that one but I just can’t see them hanging for 4 quarters with the Longhorns-
Nostradamus - Hardly ever post but been following you and Blowout, Longhorn, et al, for years. Good luck this season CF is the absolute BEST thread on this forum - all of you, plus Double, Wazoo, Train, the “B” something who was on fuego 2 years ago, and my favorite of all Bookie Assassin.... love the reads, analysis, humor, and W and L’s, like adults .....
And PS - Longhorn and Russo - thanks for the civility in your conversation regarding favorites early in the season, and your reasoning. So often I’ve seen good threads go bad with blowhards trying to outdo the other and ending with a fist fight invitation.
Back to that topic and my two cents - I HATE betting big favorites but agree with Longhorns thorough assessment of early seasons favs pouring it on theory. I have watched many of these guys mentioned above make a KILLING over the last decade on early season favorites, generally I shake my head and think “what a p_ _ _ y I was for not following” the lead
good luck this year to all
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Nostradamus - Hardly ever post but been following you and Blowout, Longhorn, et al, for years. Good luck this season CF is the absolute BEST thread on this forum - all of you, plus Double, Wazoo, Train, the “B” something who was on fuego 2 years ago, and my favorite of all Bookie Assassin.... love the reads, analysis, humor, and W and L’s, like adults .....
And PS - Longhorn and Russo - thanks for the civility in your conversation regarding favorites early in the season, and your reasoning. So often I’ve seen good threads go bad with blowhards trying to outdo the other and ending with a fist fight invitation.
Back to that topic and my two cents - I HATE betting big favorites but agree with Longhorns thorough assessment of early seasons favs pouring it on theory. I have watched many of these guys mentioned above make a KILLING over the last decade on early season favorites, generally I shake my head and think “what a p_ _ _ y I was for not following” the lead
what's going on fellas...great to see everyone back and appreciate the thoughts....adding.....
Oklahoma -23 (0.75)
LH - what's happening man...UCLA-Hawaii at 16-17 looks close to number to me so will pass maybe 37-21....still was reviewing OU-Tulane and after checking it out going with OU 51-20....OU RBs such as Gray looking real speedy in spring game and frosh WR Mario Williams looks like the real deal...one key is Tulane defense allows too many big plays over 20-30 and 8.47 YPP....green wave QB is still dicey and probably turns it over a couple times...all the best this season
Russo - no worries bud....definitely wagered them all, only post games we've played....many ways to go about whatever works....long term each week will average say 30 favs and 30 dogs will cover...more of matter of getting the best of each or whatever works....over the years I average 70-75% favs that's just what works for me.....also more likely to take under in any totals played (usually only 1-2 a week).....true that books and bettors of all kinds are feeling out the teams...sorta never ending really....on the other hand that's where if you have a accurate feel for a matchup there can be opportunities....wagering early whether it's summer openers for week 1 or Sun night for later weeks there is some risk with injuries or such occurring after the wager (note those could also fall in your favor too), however if on the 'right' or undervalued side also generally get a better number than closing number and can get a few extra wins...as far as number of plays per week, again whatever works....could be 2-3 or in my case usually average 10-14 plays a week...our goal long term has been 57-58% with fairly high volume of plays....something like 130-100 W-L for the year...which would be around +20u if average one unit....whereas someone else might play fewer games and say they hit a 60% and went 48-32...which using one unit would be around +13u....I don't get caught up whether the team is a well known team or who the pros or public is wagering on and just evaluate the team and project how game will go to project score and then compare to number and look for 7+ difference....BOL this year
BOG - hey buddy, yeah had to convince myself Ole Miss defense will be at least a little better....haven't looked in detail at UL-Texas, number looked odd and tough initially to envision a one score game (or outright win). UL fairly weak schedule so had to look at UL playing Iowa St even statistically in 31-14 win last year so it's a tough call either way, have a great season
should mostly do it, still looking at a couple others and eventually totals....will try to add some other scores later
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what's going on fellas...great to see everyone back and appreciate the thoughts....adding.....
Oklahoma -23 (0.75)
LH - what's happening man...UCLA-Hawaii at 16-17 looks close to number to me so will pass maybe 37-21....still was reviewing OU-Tulane and after checking it out going with OU 51-20....OU RBs such as Gray looking real speedy in spring game and frosh WR Mario Williams looks like the real deal...one key is Tulane defense allows too many big plays over 20-30 and 8.47 YPP....green wave QB is still dicey and probably turns it over a couple times...all the best this season
Russo - no worries bud....definitely wagered them all, only post games we've played....many ways to go about whatever works....long term each week will average say 30 favs and 30 dogs will cover...more of matter of getting the best of each or whatever works....over the years I average 70-75% favs that's just what works for me.....also more likely to take under in any totals played (usually only 1-2 a week).....true that books and bettors of all kinds are feeling out the teams...sorta never ending really....on the other hand that's where if you have a accurate feel for a matchup there can be opportunities....wagering early whether it's summer openers for week 1 or Sun night for later weeks there is some risk with injuries or such occurring after the wager (note those could also fall in your favor too), however if on the 'right' or undervalued side also generally get a better number than closing number and can get a few extra wins...as far as number of plays per week, again whatever works....could be 2-3 or in my case usually average 10-14 plays a week...our goal long term has been 57-58% with fairly high volume of plays....something like 130-100 W-L for the year...which would be around +20u if average one unit....whereas someone else might play fewer games and say they hit a 60% and went 48-32...which using one unit would be around +13u....I don't get caught up whether the team is a well known team or who the pros or public is wagering on and just evaluate the team and project how game will go to project score and then compare to number and look for 7+ difference....BOL this year
BOG - hey buddy, yeah had to convince myself Ole Miss defense will be at least a little better....haven't looked in detail at UL-Texas, number looked odd and tough initially to envision a one score game (or outright win). UL fairly weak schedule so had to look at UL playing Iowa St even statistically in 31-14 win last year so it's a tough call either way, have a great season
should mostly do it, still looking at a couple others and eventually totals....will try to add some other scores later
one of the nice things about wagering early is you don't have time to even know or care what the professional or public money is doing....it doesn't matter other than how it impacts later line movement....do the books add a point to the opening number for certain popular teams to anticipate and attempt to balance the money....sure... however the number is what it is....that's why one thing I like to do is handicap/predict score before the opening lines come out Sun night....then it's just a matter of how it compares to the number
0
one of the nice things about wagering early is you don't have time to even know or care what the professional or public money is doing....it doesn't matter other than how it impacts later line movement....do the books add a point to the opening number for certain popular teams to anticipate and attempt to balance the money....sure... however the number is what it is....that's why one thing I like to do is handicap/predict score before the opening lines come out Sun night....then it's just a matter of how it compares to the number
If you're going to lay big points on a "big name school," absolutely, the sooner the better. I.E., if Bama were hypothetically favored by 30 over Joe Blow Community College, by game time, it would be 33, or more. Whatever works, my philosophy is a little different, I like to wait until a week prior but if I see a line out of the gate I like, you bet your ass I'm hitting it, especially in the NFL where games tend to be closer. I cannot tell you over the years how much money that point or even half a point has won me or saved me (push). That does backfire occasionally but with alot experience you can more or less tell how Joe Public is going to bet, I'm right most of the time, which way the line will swing. You can always learn something new, I'm open minded, and as the game evolves for the players, so it does for a true handicapper too. Best of luck this season!
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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@nostradamus12
If you're going to lay big points on a "big name school," absolutely, the sooner the better. I.E., if Bama were hypothetically favored by 30 over Joe Blow Community College, by game time, it would be 33, or more. Whatever works, my philosophy is a little different, I like to wait until a week prior but if I see a line out of the gate I like, you bet your ass I'm hitting it, especially in the NFL where games tend to be closer. I cannot tell you over the years how much money that point or even half a point has won me or saved me (push). That does backfire occasionally but with alot experience you can more or less tell how Joe Public is going to bet, I'm right most of the time, which way the line will swing. You can always learn something new, I'm open minded, and as the game evolves for the players, so it does for a true handicapper too. Best of luck this season!
Good stuff Nos .. yeah I hit a bunch already .. some im even still feelin good about lol .. grabbed Oklahoma already -22.5 ... agree on Gray .. one bright spot on Tenn will be a killer in this system .. Wave doesn't have a good day running the ball then Sooners feast and D should be nastier than LY's .. couple dumb OU plays can make things tricky needing >3TD's tho ..
Like Ole Miss, actually warming up to GA-State but not sure Army opener is the spot to play them as a fav .. Thought Bay line looked a couple pts short.. tx state such a fun dog last year, maybe the most rugged schedule w 5 straight roadies ending at BYU before the really tough part of their conference schedule got going .. Bowling G somehow looks like an even bigger gutter ball than LY when they were losing to MAC teams by 35/game .. even w Tenn looking like a disaster should cover by halftime .. might get worried if they don't ... Think that's the case for a few others maybe ULM, Old Dom, Umass .. abyss maybe gets real crowded if Akron / Utep can't stay on the ledge ..
Good luck on the plays bro
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Good stuff Nos .. yeah I hit a bunch already .. some im even still feelin good about lol .. grabbed Oklahoma already -22.5 ... agree on Gray .. one bright spot on Tenn will be a killer in this system .. Wave doesn't have a good day running the ball then Sooners feast and D should be nastier than LY's .. couple dumb OU plays can make things tricky needing >3TD's tho ..
Like Ole Miss, actually warming up to GA-State but not sure Army opener is the spot to play them as a fav .. Thought Bay line looked a couple pts short.. tx state such a fun dog last year, maybe the most rugged schedule w 5 straight roadies ending at BYU before the really tough part of their conference schedule got going .. Bowling G somehow looks like an even bigger gutter ball than LY when they were losing to MAC teams by 35/game .. even w Tenn looking like a disaster should cover by halftime .. might get worried if they don't ... Think that's the case for a few others maybe ULM, Old Dom, Umass .. abyss maybe gets real crowded if Akron / Utep can't stay on the ledge ..
Great to hear from you my much respected BROTHER..
Covid football was a trainwreck , I'm shocked anyone made any profit on weekly game wagering ..My large local said it was his most profitable season since the mid 90's ....
Me personally I'm sticking to the MAC this season..
Best of luck Brother
Sweep your board $$$
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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Great to hear from you my much respected BROTHER..
Covid football was a trainwreck , I'm shocked anyone made any profit on weekly game wagering ..My large local said it was his most profitable season since the mid 90's ....
Me personally I'm sticking to the MAC this season..
GL Nos!!! Last year was my worst year as well. Was able to turn it around and stay afloat but it was a struggle all year. Feelin much better about it this year
0
GL Nos!!! Last year was my worst year as well. Was able to turn it around and stay afloat but it was a struggle all year. Feelin much better about it this year
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....still 22 of the last 25 seasons profitable and feeling good about this season....got some early ones in....limits fairly tight with books so will add some when available....checking out a couple other games and totals later....all the best this season 
Has to be better than last year, what a mess.
....haven't looked in detail at UL-Texas, number looked odd and tough initially to envision a one score game (or outright win). UL fairly weak schedule so had to look at UL playing Iowa St even statistically in 31-14 win last year so it's a tough call either way, have a great season
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