Week 1 NCAA FB

Some nice looking plays Duck! BOL!

So soad - No faves?   ;)   May I recommend Ole Miss -9.5...GL on your picks in week 1! 

@LonghornHoosier

 Hey now… k-state is a fave. Just weren’t when I played them!! 

faves I am considering:

GT -18

Marshall -3

duke -6

UTEP??

and ole miss seems like the right side there. Maybe TT over on ole miss, so a 42-31 late cover turned 42-38 final doesn’t burn me.  

Hope you have a profitable and prosperous season my ole friend. 

Gotcha on ECU 

Talk to me about Oregon St. They are pretty thin in the secondary, but not sure if Purdue can exploit it. Beavers O gonna have a punch?

@TRAIN69

 Brother, my take on it is this. You have a Purdue team coming off a 2 win season, losing their last three games where they were somehow favored in each, they have not won a game by more than a touchdown since beating Maryland in 2019, and they lose Rondale Moore who was so explosive and took so much attention away from others. their special teams are atrocious, they converted 30/80 on 3rd down all season, gave up 12 sacks while only securing 5 all season and their D forced ONE INT all season last year. they played Illinois, Nebraska and Rutgers, all with below Par quarterback play. 

Oregon state was 4-1 ATS LY as a dog, return 19 starters from the same team that beat Oregon…(and lost to wazzu…for perspective) 

14 of their top 15 tacklers return, and they were much more competitive last year vs superior competition compared to who Purdue played against. 

Oregon state has much better special teams and I just have to pay to see Purdue win and cover this number against a team that continues to beat Vegas expectations (12-6-1 L2 years ATS). Purdue 9-9 ATS during that same stretch. 

**UPDATED** week 1 card 

THURSDAY: SEPT 2

ECU +11.5

FRIDAY: SEPT 3

TBD

SATURDAY: SEPT 4

Kansas State ML +117

ULM + Kentucky over 55

Akron +38.5

Kent State + A&M over 65

Nevada +4

Oregon State +7

WEEK 0:

UTEP ML + Illinois +7.5 parlay +128 odds .33 units risked

FSC LEANS: (Some line guesses or general thoughts)

WK 0: SJSU -18 vs SUU

Citadel +28??

FIU -30 vs Long Island U

WKY/UTM over

UNLV+8??? (Current PR's Ratings, not my number)

EMU-16 vs St. Franny

South Dakota State +11.5??

UCONN -6??

UCA+22??

UTEP -7 vs Bethune

Bol step 

GL this season Duck !

thanks guys. very excited for the season to start. 

**UPDATED** week 1 card 

THURSDAY: SEPT 2

ECU +11.5

FRIDAY: SEPT 3

TBD

SATURDAY: SEPT 4

Kansas State ML +117

ULM + Kentucky over 55

Akron +38.5

Kent State + A&M over 65

Nevada +4

Oregon State +7

Citadel +31.5

WEEK 0:

UTEP ML + Illinois +7.5 parlay +128 odds .33 units risked

San Jose St TT o40.5

FSC LEANS: (Some line guesses or general thoughts)

FIU -30 vs Long Island U

WKY/UTM over

Tulsa -20.5

New Mexico + Houston Baptist over

EMU-16 vs St. Franny

South Dakota State +11.5??

UCONN -6??

UCA+22??

UTEP -7 vs Bethune

best of luck this season duck 

@shakey12381

  Likewise 

**UPDATED** week 1 card 

THURSDAY: SEPT 2

ECU +11.5

FRIDAY: SEPT 3

TBD

SATURDAY: SEPT 4

Kansas State ML +117

ULM + Kentucky over 55

Akron +38.5

Kent State + A&M over 65

Nevada +4

Oregon State +7

Citadel +31.5

WEEK 0:

UTEP ML + Illinois +7.5 parlay +128 odds .33 units risked

San Jose St TT o40.5

wow. What a start

**UPDATED** week 1 card 

THURSDAY: SEPT 2

ECU +11.5

FRIDAY: SEPT 3

TBD

SATURDAY: SEPT 4

Kansas State ML +117

ULM + Kentucky over 55

Akron +38.5

Kent State + A&M over 65

Nevada +4

Oregon State +7

Citadel +31.5 and +35.5 

San Diego State -30

WEEK 0:

UTEP ML + Illinois +7.5 parlay +128 odds .33 units risked

San Jose St TT o40.5

Thoughts on Kentucky -29 since you like the O55? Hard to see ULM putting up more than 10 here imo.....Looks like a 58-10 type game to me....

Nice opening day brother

@TRAIN69

 100%. 49-17…52-13…

@steponaduck

 thank you ,thank you,thank you STEPONADUCK, THANK YOU!

Good start!

BOL this season

Citadel line move just because people wanna bet the top 25?

@TRAIN69

 I could be wrong. I am usually wrong 4 times out of 10 

don’t get me wrong. This coastal team is good. Very good. But I have to assume they are focused on hosting KU (they won handily last year @KU as +6 and frankly embarrassed the jayhawks) and they do not want to lose all credibility they have built up by putting up a stinker against KU. Hosting a “power 5 squad” is what I assume they are focusing on…plus let’s go back to how el cit has handled these games historically:

2018: loss @alabama 50-17 tied 10-10 at half

2019: beat GT 27-24 in OT, lead at half and scored in every quarter 

2020: @south florida loss 27-6, won the TOP 32-28 and 2H score was 7-0

 @ Clemson loss 49-0, 0-0 2H score. What can you take away from this game? Coastal is no where near what Clemson is, and Clemson “only” had 404 total yards and 16 FD…

@ army, loss 14-9 (army was -32)…7-6 2H score. Close game total yds we’re 218-208. 

citadel familiar with triple option (CCU runs inverted triple so different but more similar than shotgun 4 wr passing and RPO run game) 

I just don’t see how CCU warrants a -35.5 here. Last year coastal played down to Campbell and the camels hung tough, scoring twice in the 4th. 

last year coastal won all their games but didn’t blow out any one other than Texas state after they had mailed it in (played 12 strait weeks, tired, 2-7 at the time and going no where). 

I just feel we see enough effort from citadel to keep it within the margin, maybe cause some havoc early and possess the ball enough to keep the score within reason. Could also see coastal play slow and conservative as well with no reason to blow out an in state military school. They have beef with South Carolina in state, not el cit. 

34-10 type game. 

WEEK 0:

UTEP ML + Illinois +7.5 parlay +128 odds .33 units risked

San Jose St TT o40.5

**UPDATED** week 1 card 

THURSDAY: SEPT 2

ECU +11.5

Citadel +31.5 and +35.5 

UTM + WKU o38.5

FRIDAY: SEPT 3

Colorado State +4 -120

SATURDAY: SEPT 4

Kansas State ML +117

ULM + Kentucky over 55

Akron +38.5

San Jose State +15

Kent State + A&M over 65

Nevada +4

Oregon State +7

San Diego State -30

Week 0 Results: (my analysis of major CFB spreads  - goal is to oppose the public)

2-0

No Bet - Illinois-Nebraska: Conflicting low ticket favorite and early home start

6 units  - UCLA (-17.5) - Line move, early home start, West coast travel, sharp indicators (W)

1 unit - UTEP (-9.5) - Sharp indicators and SKS trends outweighed reverse movement 

Week 1 Tuesday early (will update periodically) 

Thursday

2 units - Boise (+5) - Anti Public

2 units - Minnesota  (+14) - Anti-Public

Friday

2 units - Virginia Tech (+5.5) - Anti-Public

1 unit - Northwestern (-3) - low ticket favorite

Saturday

5 units - Texas Tech (-1.5) - positive reverse movement, low ticket favorite anti-public

3 units - West Virginia (-3) - low ticket favorite, anti public

3 units  - Iowa (-3.5) - low ticket favorite, anti public

3 units - Purdue (-7) - low ticket favorite, anti-public

2 units - Kansas St (-2.5) - West Coast travel and early home start outweighs anti-public

2 units - Miami (+19.5) - anti-public

2 units - Kent St (+28.5) - anti-public

2 units - UCLA (+3) - line movement w/ low ticket

2 units - Nevada (+3) - anti-public

2 units - Utah St (+16.5) - anti-public

1 unit - Oklahoma (-27) - early home start

1 unit - Penn St (+5.5) - anti public outweighs early home start

1 unit - Texas (-8) - low ticket favorite

1 unit - Clemson (-3) - low ticket favorite

1 unit - BYU (12.5) - line movement

Sunday

No Bet - Notre Dame-Florida St (7.5) - No tells

Monday

1 unit - Louisville (+10) - anti-public outweighs line movement

@HooAlum

 Good afternoon 

are you wanting my feedback or why did you post this 

sorry, new posting to the forum.  Have read your stuff and are a must read for me but should have made a new post separately.