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Week 1 NCAA FB

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Captain
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Posted: #51

@HooAlum

 dude its all good. i will happily review your card and get back to you.

Until the wallet is full.
 
Captain
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Posted: #52

WEEK 0:

moneybagUTEP ML +moneybag Illinois +7.5 parlay +moneybag128 odds .33 units risked

moneybagSan Jose St TT o40.5

 

 

 

**UPDATED** week 1 card 

THURSDAY: SEPT 2

ECU +11.5

Citadel +31.5 and +35.5 

UTM + WKU o38.5

FRIDAY: SEPT 3

Colorado State +4 -120

SATURDAY: SEPT 4

Kansas State ML +117

ULM + Kentucky over 55

Akron +38.5

San Jose State +15

Kent State + A&M over 65

Nevada +4

Oregon State +7

San Diego State -30

Until the wallet is full.
 
Captain
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Posted: #53
Replying to HooAlum:

I agree on the ones listed below, but I take much more into consideration when capping than technical angles. (not assuming that is all you look at, but that is all that was included in your notes). Overwhelmingly, I dont care what the ticket count or percentages are, unless used in conjunction with line movement, and only then will it usually cause me to wait to play something until right up to kickoff, or pass. 

I also try to keep in mind that the public wins 45% of the time. (Just enough to consistently lose, but still enough to keep coming back for more abuse). so i am not afraid of the public play.

 

I would love to know how many of your plays surpass 1-2 units. What % of your roll is a unit, because by my count has you with 39 units at risk. Most people use 1-4% of their BR as a unit...just an observation.

 

hope you have a successful year this year. I would avoid purdue, utah state and BYU, but just my personal opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Week 0 Results: (my analysis of major CFB spreads  - goal is to oppose the public)

2-0

No Bet - Illinois-Nebraska: Conflicting low ticket favorite and early home start

6 units  - UCLA (-17.5) - Line move, early home start, West coast travel, sharp indicators (W)

1 unit - UTEP (-9.5) - Sharp indicators and SKS trends outweighed reverse movement 

 

Week 1 Tuesday early (will update periodically) 

Thursday

moneybag2 units - Boise (+5) - Anti Public

2 units - Minnesota  (+14) - Anti-Public

Friday

2 units - Virginia Tech (+5.5) - Anti-Public

1 unit - Northwestern (-3) - low ticket favorite

Saturday

5 units - Texas Tech (-1.5) - positive reverse movement, low ticket favorite anti-public

3 units - West Virginia (-3) - low ticket favorite, anti public

3 units  - Iowa (-3.5) - low ticket favorite, anti public

3 units - Purdue (-7) - low ticket favorite, anti-public

moneybag2 units - Kansas St (-2.5) - West Coast travel and early home start outweighs anti-public

2 units - Miami (+19.5) - anti-public

moneybag2 units - Kent St (+28.5) - anti-public

2 units - UCLA (+3) - line movement w/ low ticket

moneybag2 units - Nevada (+3) - anti-public

2 units - Utah St (+16.5) - anti-public

1 unit - Oklahoma (-27) - early home start

1 unit - Penn St (+5.5) - anti public outweighs early home start

moneybag1 unit - Texas (-8) - low ticket favorite

1 unit - Clemson (-3) - low ticket favorite

1 unit - BYU (12.5) - line movement

Sunday

No Bet - Notre Dame-Florida St (7.5) - No tells

Monday

1 unit - Louisville (+10) - anti-public outweighs line movement

Until the wallet is full.
 
Captain
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Posted: #54

**UPDATED** week 1 card 

THURSDAY: SEPT 2

ECU +11.5

Citadel +31.5 and +35.5 

UTM + WKU o38.5

wku TT o34.5

FRIDAY: SEPT 3

Colorado State +4 -120

Old Dominion +32

SATURDAY: SEPT 4

Kansas State ML +117

ULM + Kentucky over 55

Akron +38.5

San Jose State +15

Kent State + A&M over 65

Nevada +4

Oregon State +7

San Diego State -30

Until the wallet is full.
 
Captain
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Posted: #55

GL on yer plays, I saw that WKY / UTM total and was like oh please nobody bet it till I can get it .. i can get it now for like 53 but its a US based book and only lets me bet 19 on it .. dollars not units lol .. did manage to get a couple past their approval process for a hundo .. coastal +33.5, Buff / VVagner under 53 .. suppose Buff could just run up and down on these guys but VVaggy was super duper slow on offense LY like legit 3yds and a cloud and did put up a fight on D .. can't even let them contribute to that total or won't be enough time left over .. you grab all yours off a 5 dimes??? .. 

Woulda hit a bunch more but ... delaware BEAT THE SH!T out of Maine last spring think they'll oblige them again unless there's some big change w Maine .. tough to not take +9 on Incarnate Word esp from a sluggish offense like Y-Town think that could be an upset pretty easy .. kansas layin 14.5 is a site to see wouldn't mind just dropping SD in a parlay and seeing if it works .. H.BAP minus coord, 3 WR's and QB still a team worthy of 69+ totals w N.Mexico? .. idk if they are actually but that kinda offense doesn't grow on trees at that level.. maybe the smart play there is just hit NM -20 .. still like Monmouth w points and maybe 4tw .. def one for the ML parlay ..

 
Prospect
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Posted: #56

Goodluck Step! Always love to hear your takes! 

 
Captain
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Posted: #57

Good Luck Duck - just starting to look into things , always check your forum out. 

 
Captain
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Posted: #58

@Badger66

 peace_5

very kind of you to say 

Until the wallet is full.
 
Captain
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Posted: #59

@Bridge1

 Guy, 

 

I use book maker, local casino and local “fred” who allows for any line posted from madduxsports line tracker to include 5D soft lines. 

Until the wallet is full.
 
Captain
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Posted: #60

@Aldan52

 Good luck this week buddy 

Until the wallet is full.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #61

Hey step still don’t get Col.st. +4!!!!! Aren’t they playing So Dakota st. who can’t be the favorite?

 
Captain
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Posted: #62

@haymo

 Shocked to see it myself big buddy...couldnt believe it. 

Until the wallet is full.
 
Captain
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Posted: #63

**UPDATED** week 1 card 

THURSDAY: SEPT 2

ECU +11.5

Citadel +31.5 and +35.5 

UTM + WKU o38.5

wku TT o34.5

 

FRIDAY: SEPT 3

Colorado State +4 -120

Old Dominion +32

 

SATURDAY: SEPT 4

Kansas State ML +117

South Alabama ML +116

ULM + Kentucky over 55

Akron +38.5

San Jose State +15

Kent State + A&M over 65

Nevada +4

Oregon State +7

San Diego State -30

Until the wallet is full.
 
Captain
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Joined: Apr, 2017
Posts: 5020
Posted: #64

**UPDATED** week 1 card 

THURSDAY: SEPT 2

ECU +11.5

Citadel +31.5 and +35.5 

UTM + WKU o38.5

wku TT o34.5

UNLV -1.5 +124

 

FRIDAY: SEPT 3

Colorado State +4 -120

Old Dominion +32

 

SATURDAY: SEPT 4

Kansas State ML +117

South Alabama ML +116

ULM + Kentucky over 55

Akron +38.5

San Jose State +15

Kent State + A&M over 65

Nevada +4

Oregon State +7

San Diego State -30

 

 

i cannot resist. taking UNLV at home game 1 vs EWU...power ratings and projections had them at -6...line opened at +8...was up for 5 minutes. 5dimes opened -10.5, it trickled all the way to EWA -2... ill take plus money with UNLV...

Until the wallet is full.
 
Captain
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Posted: #65

@steponaduck

 Man .. I need a Fred .. Good luck tonight. 

 
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Posted: #66

thank you

@steponaduck

 thank you STEP! let's light  them up this year! All the way with you, SIR! lots of luck, of course!

 
Veteran
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Posted: #67

Great insight ! 

 
Captain
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Posted: #68

confused 

coastal running play action deep passes and wr reverses with two minutes left to punch one more in vs citadel 

confused

ecu tries onside kick and doesn’t use final two time outs?? What the h3ll was that? 

Until the wallet is full.
 
Rookie
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Posts: 568
Posted: #69

Good luck this year! I was on UCF -5.5, total hose job at the end of that game as well SMH!

 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 34
Posted: #70

 Do you have anything for week #2? Thanks for all you do 

@steponaduck

 

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