Week 1 NFL ... Week 3 NCAA

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https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/nfl-week-1-103872365

UTSA+34

Wyoming +9.5

Kent St. +4

Colo-7

Air Force +13.5

UConn +16.5

Memphis+6.5

C.Mich +19

San Diego state +17.5 

Favorites 

LSU-7

Missouri -16 

NC St.- 21.5

How you tracking so far?  NCAAFB so much more fun than the pros

Favorites 

 Kansas-7

LSU-7

Missouri -16 

NC St.- 21.5

UTSA+34

Wyoming +9.5

Kent St. +48

Colo-7

Air Force +13.5

UConn +16.5

Memphis+6.5

C.Mich +19

San Diego state +17.5 

Some old school great guitar layers from the 70's from a eclectic but talented band 

Styx 

I am changing course this week for only my posting bets.  I still have the bets listed but as far as posting I am going to list a top 8.  

it’s just easier for me to track and most people don’t want see a 10+ card.  

Best bets: 

Missouri-16

I feel BC caught FSU at the right moment.  Same line as the FSU game and Missouri has played a few games.  I Don’t feel A BC upset here so that leaves the points that can evaporate quickly. 

Virginia Tech-14

Vanderbilt destroyed them because Vanderbilt is for real this season.  Old Dominion is not on the same level as Vandy yet the line is the same.  It’s on Virginia tech to execute here. 

Ball St. +36.5

I think the line is set way too high after beating Florida badly. Yea okay Ball state most of the time is mediocre or worse in The MAC.  I just see the name Miami and -36.5 and their teams played and say ahhh  no too many.  See if they can evaporate this plate full of points. 

Kent St.  +48

I've lost my mind?  Maybe.  If Tenn covers this one look out in the coming weeks.  A big win over NC St. and a FCS spanking.  Big deal.  It’s kind of guess work where this line should be and I think the current line is guessed too high. Like I said if Tenn covers this the book is going to keep guessing too high in the future games.  

UTSA +34

It’s up high because they lost big to Texas St? Well Texas St is favored over Arizona St this week.  That score has influenced this line.  Also Texas whooping of Michigan helps.  I’ll take a chance see if they can hang. 

J.vile St. +1.5

This is a good one.  Total line value after 2 bad games.  They were home favorites to coastal and got whooped by ranked Louisville.  E.Mich now becomes chalk.  Let me see Jvill St destroy E. Mich 21-0 like they did last season.   I don’t care about revenge this is about football and I see this fairly clear.  Hope Jville is motivated.  If not they don’t have heart. 

NC St. -21 

I didn’t watch the Tenn game but the score was wack.  This LTU team?  They could whoop em hard and I am betting on them. If not then BC St will be dogs until they can prove something.  In my opinion this is a sleeper because -21 looks like a lot.  It’s not a lot if my valuation of LTU is proper. 

Wyoming +10

Wyoming so far is trash, but so what that’s why this line is +10.  BYU won a huge game for them last week in a nat’l stage on TV.  SMU looks like trash.  BYU didn’t win that game SMU gave it to them.  10 point road chalk here.  Maybe BYU regifts the gift they got last game.  Nothing impressive to me about beating SMU.  BYU was home to southern Illinois that line was -16.5 lol.  Please.

I’m only tracking these plays this week, the rest I have bet on my personal accounts. 

Missouri-16

Virginia Tech-14

NC St. -21 

Ball St. +36.5

Kent St.  +48

UTSA +34

J.vile St. +1.5

Wyoming +10

Other games I like: 

LSU -7.  After last season score fest they are trying to gain a better DNA.  Under are in so far so that’s an improvement.

FSU -7 could make the list.  I just don’t want too look like “that” guy if it loses. 

I also like the lines on : 

Air Force +16  This is based upon the books seeing what we saw on BOTH teams last week.  Baylor only covered against Utah because Rising went out?  Didn’t see it. Air Force lol boy a military academy team better find A way.  This could be an upset or  Air Forces bad season and omit them the rest of the season. 

C Mich +19

i don’t trust ILL to be dominate at home after a big win.  C. Mich did not play well at all last week.  The combo is a recipe for a big line. 

San Diego St. +17.5 

I didn’t watch any game on them yet.  Sean Lewis didn’t impress me at CU last year so I am shaken on them.  I did bet SD St last week and lost.  I probably should have passed here and figure out can SDSt bounce back after a home dog shutout but Cal played a big game upset victory last week.  

Is this a few extra points this week?  Is Sean Lewis a mess? The motivation is there but do they have anything to be able to hang with Cal?  That upset win has Cal on the map again. 

UConn +16

Dont understand why so many.  Okay they got smoked by Maryland.  They also bounced back against FCS nobody.  Duke off an overtime win vs. Northwestern. No big deal there.  +16 because why ?  Duke is poor this season.  Maybe a good D but that’s not a certainty yet. 

Okay all my words are just words.  The words are not a method to my madness,  all these games are based upon data and if the data is congruent with my brain I press go.  

some of you are not going to see eye to eye because I am willing to take points in games that go against the grain.  So be it maybe you break down the game better than me.  

it is what it is.  Let’s see if my data is on point for a second straight week. 

best wishes all. 

Hey Spottie, I watched the whole Tennessee - NC St game and I got some huge impressions about both teams:

- Vols literally bullied NC St who seemed smaller

-McCall looked like he was out of shape or could not get a pass off and when he did he was mediocre 

- Vols were bigger and way faster and scored 3-4 touchdowns in the second half from win a race to get around the edge and down the sideline untouched to the endzone...it looked like a weak FCS team playing Georgia 

- Vols QB Nico is unreal...moving with the ball and throwing...just like Lamar and maybe better when he was first starting ...but he throws more than Lamar

I watched because I had an UNDER 60.5 parlay ticket to finish paying me close to $200 and I could not believe how they made it look easy and it seemed like they decided at halftime , there goal was to get over 50 pts and then turn off engines and so they did by the beginning of the 4th Q

@Last2thirst

 Appreciate the heads up.  I get the Excitement on Tenn.  I get excited about lines and maybe I am a sucker on this one.  Oh well if i lose only one game 

They should turn off the engines this week with Okla on deck.  If I was betting Tenn it would be first half only.  Kent st isn’t going to be much resistance this week. 

Now I’m thinking you’re right.  Even though Kent st qualifies maybe I’m better off second half.  

thanks 

I am sure I will adjust my list later in the week.  Part of me is running around this week.  

I just have to add UConn and Wake F but I’ll wait as lines keep climbing. 

You should go on Youtube and watch the 2nd half....everyone should....its a major wow how they did it so easily.....and when the camera puts a Vols players next to a NCST player, its like Arnold vs Danny DeVito it seemed 

@spottie2935

I was torn with Kansas. I was leaning Kansas with some big playoff g5 implications in this game. Top contenders.. Sluka and Kansas being inconsistent is keeping me away from this tho. I may tail you on this now tho. Goodluck this week!

@CasaBlanca-

 I am working through my top 8 or 10 list this week. 

Weekday games are a different animal.  I don’t think Kansas will make my top list.  

week 3 is different. Next week starts concept for a lot of teams.  

I am mostly a dog guy and after a dominated dog week it gets difficult to find valued dogs that are on a losing streak.  Need losses to increase odds.  

This week favorites that will be dogs next week:

Illinois @ Nebraska 

Vandy @ Mizzu

NC St. @ Clemson

Utah @ Okla St (Utah might be a slight favorite next week so maybe not a dog but these close lines still are on my radar. )

Tenn @ Okla same with Tenn probably a slight favorite and if they cover this week will most likely not cover vs okla 

a favorite that will be a dog next week is 

BYU.  BYU plays Kan st next week after a big win.  Wyoming needs to do much better this week.  I really like the +10 for the situation but Wyoming has to improve a lot to cover.  This is the gamble. 

That’s a break down of the top 25 games. 

If Kansas lays an egg this week I will be on them in week 4 vs. WVirg 

JVLLE ST +2

they have struggled but the key here for me is EMCH 

E.MCH was an away dog to Mass in week 1.  I dont respect that line.  This is a strong situation for Jville State

Tracking my bets this week with the lines I posted already.  All bets count and will tally my record later.

bigger plays :

Nc St. -21.5 

Missouri -16

Va Tech -14

C. Mich +19

Tulane +13.5

UConn +17

Wake F +24

Jvlle St +1.5

UTSA +34

AIR F. +13.5

WYO  +9.5

Hawaii +5.5

smaller bets 

Kent St +48

Colo -7

Memphis +6.5

San Diego +17.5

LSU -7

Kansas -7

Ball St. +36.5