Week 1 of the MAC ATTACK 🏈💰💵

What's up Family ??? 

Wishing everyone fantastic health , blessings and luck !!! 

 Last offseason I spent 99.9% of my college handicapping time solely focusing on the MAC ( my favorite conference ) ..Got lucky hitting longshot BALL ST. conference futures and did well with weekly ATS wagering ..In my opinion there are far too many college teams to handicap every conference  properly . I enjoy watching all MAC games on tv or online , reading every school's weekly updates  , and listening to as many podcasts /coaches shows possible..

What does past success mean moving forward ??        NOTHING  

However I'll do my best to predict each game involving the MAC on a weekly basis..

The MAC is loaded with experience this season ..With 7 schools in the top 42 , and 9 in the top 66 of Steele's experience chart..

Toledo 4 , EMU 5, BALL ST 14, CMU 18, WMU 21 , MIAMI OHIO 32 , OHIO 42 , AKRON 57 , KENT ST 66.......Meanwhile NIU 104 , UB 114 ,BG 126 have some holes to fill......

Brief conference run down 

Point Spread Ratings ( NOT Predicted final standings )

EAST 

KENT ST  85.12.  Offense will put up video game numbers after scoring 49.8 PPG last year ..Dustin Crum is back and could shatter conference records ..Running game rushed for a gawdy 263 yog ly ..O line is my top rated in the MAC ...Defense was atrocious,  and can only get better ..Secondary should be there strength. I'm loaded up on their futures , conference,  division and season wins ...NOT sure if the high flying offense will work in college station at night vs my #7 overall rated defense ( Game breakdown to follow ) 

MIAMI OHIO 78.95.  Great value at +3300 to win the MAC ..Won the conference in 2019 , and best last years champion BALL st in the opener... Could have the Best defense in the MAC !!!  Just like Kent St theyll have their hands full vs a tough opponent week 1 ...I'm looking for value week 4 at Army , and in conference play .

OHIO.  78.71.  SOLICH retires but the cupboard is stocked full of talent . Dont think theyll win the East , but it truly is a 4 headed race .( Breakdown below ) 

UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO 77.81. Lance Leipold bolted to kansas and took a ton of the talent with him .The O line was a strength for the last 3 years but could be a major weakness in 21 .WR'S and TE's have major shoes to fill ...JARET PATTERSON was the best UB player I've ever seen ( besides Khalil Mack ) , Kevin Mark's is good , but not the same talent or even close IMO ..Wonder if he break down with the added carries...The defense looks strong but might be left on the field far too long ..

AKRON 65.85.  Expecting some massive value with inflated lines ...The ZIPS went young the last 2 years and it's about to pay off ( for us bettors anyways) ...They might only win 2-4 games , but could print money with all the points theyll be catching...PASSING on them this week , however next week they could be my first MORTGAGE wager of the season playing lowly TEMPLE at home ...

BOWLING GREEN 52.87.  Going to be really bad , like should be relegated bad!!! TENNESSEE -34.5 is my first standard bet ( 1 UNIT/$200 ) of the season , tempted to also take BG under 12.5 team total , and sell some points up to 41 $$$

WEST 

WESTERN MICHIGAN  81.92. Could be the class of the WEST and very competitive all season ..The conference schedule is BRUTAL , as they could lose all 4 road games ( they won't though ) , draw Kent St , at UB , and upstart Akron from the east .ILL breakdown their huge game at the BIG HOUSE below..

TOLEDO 81.77  Absolutely loaded with 58 Lettermen  returning and only 4 lost ..The schedule sets up nicely and it makes sense they're the conference chalk ...Looking forward to their week 2 match up at NOTRE DAME ...The over might be juicy !! 

BALL ST 81.33   The returning champs ..So much coming back...Probably won't back them until conference play hits ..The OOC games at PENN ST, and at WYOMING are interesting...

CMU  78.73. Flying under the radar ...Oddsmakers appear to be tipping their hand making the chipps a small 14.5 underdog at an SEC school ( more. below)

EMU. 77.30. The west is really deep , in most years this team might be the chalk or close to it in the division ..Could be excellent in conference play as the dog .

NIU.  71.78.   Might not be as bad as the MAC media predicts..Could catch conference foes looking ahead ..With 19 starters back they should be a live dog ( see below vs Ga Tech ) .

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I've never bet college ball much cause I don't know a damn about it. Imma tail you and see how we do. May you have a prosperously blessed season. 

Rule #1 FADE ME if I bet on NON MAC related games ...YOU'LL Make BANK 

WEEK 0.   -$102    ( Plays less than  1 unit/$200 will NOT count in overall record , but will count in money won or lost ) .

Last Saturday I lost $312 on Saturday ( CFB/NFL/EPL ) , but WON $302 back on Sunday ( EPL/SERIE A ) .

* Futures and game breakdowns to follow ..

Time to go to bed 

Return of the MAC! 

Love it! Can’t wait for this conference to get under way!

Will be following, appreciate the insight as always! BOL!

@DoubleUp4Life

 Love betting soccer..I got killed Sat but went like 6-0 Sunday.Had Villareal +412 up 2 to 1 then opponent scored a goal on 96th min..BRUTAL BEAT

GL this season DU

Double Up knows what he’s talking about MAC conference is one of the best on betting football. Good luck brother I’ll be tailing you all season ! 

Double 

Good to have you back w your insights, etc.  Looking forward to your MAC knowledge.

Color coding this year?

Let’s have fun and make a ton.  I always do well - I got a printer. 

I’ll tail as well! No pressure!

Standard Wager #1 

TENNESSEE.   1.5 UNITS 

-34.5  $220/200

-35.    $100/100 

Situation appears to be the perfect storm for a BEATDOWN !!! 

 Bowling Green is absolutely horrible , I expect them to be catching 30+ points at least 5+ times this season ( maybe more) .. Unless things have changed in the last week they only have 1 upperclassmen in the offensive line 2 deep ..That doesnt bode well vs a much more athletic SEC defense..My rankings have Tenenssee with the #17 ranked  D LINE in the country . ...QB Matt McDonald is a turnover machine who completed only 44% of his passes last year .I dont have access to his stats when pressured , but on tape he looked like he was horrified of getting tackled ( often throwing ducks down field to avoid the sack )... The Falcons defense is small and slow , switching from a 4 man d line to 3 without much beef .. They added plenty of transfers but new DC Eric Lewis didnt sound impressed with what he saw on the practice field ...

On the flip side the VOLUNTEERS  should be thirsty after a disappointing 3-7 season . Love the Josh Heupel signing , the offense should improve overnight with the new system..Cant wait to see the uptempo , wide open approach on Thursday night .

I'm very pleased to hear Michigan transfer JOE MILTON won the QB job , Big strong kid at 6-5 245 who can wing it and can move the chains with his feet ..I believe he got a raw deal at Michigan , especially considering he tore ligaments in his thumb( throwing hand on the 2nd play in game 2 vs Michigan state last year...He played through it and threw for 300 that day , and 344 the next game at Indiana but was replaced after inconsistency during game 5 .. Milton was recruited unsuccessfully by Heupel at Missouri,  Heupel stayed in contact often sending videos of Drew Lock's big performances ......

Home field is going to be a huge advantage Thursday night in Knoxville .Most of the players on the Falcons were not on the roster back in 2019 when they lost 52-0 at Notre Dame ..I'd give the Vols double digits for a HFA ...

Point spread Ratings. 

Tenenssee 90.08. HF +10.02 

Bowling Green  52.87  

PREDICTION 

TENNESSEE 54

BOWLING GREEN. 7

@best_bets

 Tail with caution , but I really love focusing solely on this conference ..The coaching staffs are often much more transparent with who's playing and who isnt , which is more important than ever during the Covid era ...Thank you for your kindness ...Best of luck to you and those Broncos this season .Praying they kick KC arse this season ...

@RonBergundy

 Now i can't get that song out of my head

 " Return of the MACK " .. The first time I heard it was in the car after I foolishly attempted to date 3 girls at the same time ..Needless to say they busted me and I went down in flames...One of them even scratched up my 79 Monte Carlo ( I deserved it , lesson learned ) ...

Best of luck Brother...Have a Fantastic season 

@ckattar8

 I suck at teasers ...Used to bet them regularly,  often hitting 2 of 3 , would  have been more profitable  betting them straight up covering 2 of 3 .....Believe I lost 11 college teasers in row during college ..Best of luck Brother..Sweep your board..

Im taking a shot with WMU @ CMU + the points they both seem like they can hang--not messing with BG, Miami Oh or Ohio this week 2 could be blow outs last one is toss up

OU getting points in Athens? They are certainly a better team than Syracuse right? I took OU +2.5

@GoMuckYaSelf

 OU is one of my top 3 picks this week and I can't bet them because my book doesn't take action involving NY college teams. Another top 3 pick I can't bet either - Georgia State because Army is in NY

@warcameagle56

 Those late goals are enough to make you kick the tv ..When I coach my youngest's team I'm always telling them to kick it out of bounds when they have the lead late in games when defending ...So many brain farts in pro soccer during stoppage time...BEST OF LUCK BROTHER  ..Have a great season..

@Crazy_Train

 BEST of LUCK to you my WNY BROTHER ...

LEEETTTTSSSSS. GGGGOOOOOO BBBBUUFFFAALLLOOOOO 

GO BILLS 

@themaceo

I have to be good at something right ??? Its definitely not tools , cant fix anything around the house if my life depended on it ..Appreciate the kindness...Let's make some bank ...Have a fantastic seaso. 

@thorpe

that sucks ... I'll put that on my long list of things to hate about New York

LOW RISK

UNDERDOG ML PARLAYS + One small single ML dog 

I'll definitely have much larger ML DOG bets once conference play begins as I believe the 6 teams in the west could all be fairly equal . NIU is working out of  the bottom , but should be competitive .... In the East Akron should be catching some inflated ML odds , and Miami could  be much better than most "experts " predict.   

Not looking to invest that much money in week 1 ...  Although it's very possible 2+ MAC schools  could pull an upset vs one of the power 5 foes ( or Ranked Cincinnati) ...I'll leave out NIU ( meaning they'll probably win lol) 

.. OHIO  +100  would be the top choice as a small even money doggie  ...Steele and most cappers like both the  Cuse and Ohio more than I do ..Ohio might be much better in the trenches , and I will not underestimate the Bobcats winning one  for recently retired coach Solich ...I dont feel comfortable enough in this potential coin flip to make it anything close to a standard wager ..As thorpe mentions our casino sportsbook does NOT accept bets on NY schools ..So I'll be putting them in parlays below with the local 

CENTRAL MICHIGAN. +450 ..Jim Mcelwain is probably the least transparent HC in the MAC ..They had a heated QB battle in August camp with Jim and OC Barbay have even suggested it's a 3 headed race at times ..Former WASHINGTON HUSKIES PS#7 transfer  Jacob Simon was supposed to win this job hands down...Some reports indicate that all 3 have looked good and Mcelwain is doing just what he did at Florida and keeping it hush hush ...One of my buddies is a CMU homer , he believes incumbent  Daniel Richardson will start at Missouri ...  The Chippewas have a ton of experience all of the field,  After reaching the MAC championship in 2019  they were decent last year goo g 3-2  with the losses being by 1 and 8 points ...CMU will be playing with heavy hearts for QB John Keller who was shot in the chest...CHIPPS could have the best defense in the MAC when conference play hits and still get roasted here by Missouri...I'll pass on a ATS bet unless the spread continues to rise ..

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WESTERN MICHIGAN  +600  Could be live with a very  potent offense. ..The Broncos do have some big shoes to fill at LB, though .. The DL and secondary should be decent by MAC standards with a ton of experience... .. That being said all the pressure is on MICHIGAN ...Harbaugh chopped up the staff hiring 6 new assistants .. I'm not entirely sold on the QBs  or which direction this team is headed ..Big game on deck hosting Washington ...The Mrs. Fam are huge Michigan worshippers , I'd love to see them go 1-11 to watch them lose their shet in slow motion overall full agonizing season ...Not saying that happens , they'll probably  go bowling..That schedule is brutal ( my 14th most difficult ) ..

MIAMI OHIO +1100 AND KENT ST +1600 could get blown out in week 1 as both of their opponents are really good  ...The Bearcats look like the real deal ..I'm looking to possibly invest large in the Redhawks once MAC okay begins.  

For Degen purposes I put a few small coins on A&M futures ( see below) I've been the kiss of death for SEC schoola when I bet on their futures .......KENT ST OVER TEAM TOTAL might be worth a half of a unit bet if its released at 19.5 or less ....

UNDERDOG ML PARLAYS 

( It's only $29 ) 

PARLAY A. +1000  $12/120

OHIO +100 

CMU  +450. 

PARLAY B  +1300. $9/117

OHIO +100 

WMU. +600

PARLAY  C. +3750.   $8/300

CMU  +450 

WMU. +600 

ML DOG SINGLE for a measly 7 beans

MIAMI OHIO +1100.  $7/77

Just to have a rooting interest while watching ...This total is low and the Redhawks could be brimming with confidence if they're still in the game during the 3rd quarter ...Bearcats could be reading all the preseason hype and play themselves into a battle ..( or they win and name their score ) ..Tough one to predict !! 

Remaining MAC LEANS 

KENT ST TEAM TOTAL OVER IF 19.5 or less 

CMU if 17+ 

OVER 54 AUBURN VS AKRON 

UNDER 58. UB VS WAGNER 

* MORE BETS TO FOLLOW 

Love your mac plays brother. Local casino has kent state TT at 17. 

also, wag +49?? Wild spread for a UB team in transition. 

45-7 out of the question??

PENDING MAC FUTURES

( see MAC thread for a more detailed write up ) 

TO WIN CONFERENCE

MIAMI OHIO +3300. $420/$13,880

The odds draw me in . Win or lose this price has tremendous value ..Bombs away isnt that impossible here with the REDHAWKS returning a solid MAC roster.. I'd make them no worse than +1200 ...

KENT ST +1400. $500/7000

Down to to +700 in many spots ..Oddsmakers must have finally realized how wrong they were about the Gikden Flashes in seating their RSW and Futures prices. .

To WIN DIVISION (* With local )

MIAMI OHIO +1450. $245/3552.50

KENT ST +500. $420/2100

Season Win total wagers 

KENT ST OVER 5 -113. $904/800

My favorite win total on the board !!! Up to Over 6 -113 now at Seneca sportsbook .  Expect to have the best offense in the MAC led by QB Dustin Crum , a great MAC  o line,  and a deep stable of highly productive backs 

UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO  UNDER 7.5 +100 

$550/550

Leipold bolted for Kansas ( Good luck there bud) 

I'm getting Under 8 -110 locally, but for covers sake ill use what was the current line when this bet was posted ... There is a decent chance that the BULLS lose 4 of their first 6 games...

The O Line has been strength for the last 3 seasons , it now could be in the bottom 3 in the MAC ...Leipold left and took a ton of talent with him ...Depth is a major concern for the first time in 5+ years .. Both the WR'S and TE positions have huge holes to fill ...Vamtrease could be running for his life in the pocket ( something he's rarely had to do ) 

.I've made far more money fading this team than backing them over the last couple  decades ..  Oddsmakers appear asleep at the wheel setting this total so high .

NCAA PENDING FUTURES 

For $856 I get to root for the AGIGIES , TAR HEELS , and BADGERS like their my BUFFALO BILLS ...The purpose of these bets is to get the DEGEN fix I crave without wasting precious time handicapping/watching  the entire SEC ,ACC, & BIG10 every week .

TO WIN DIVISION PARLAY +247

( My 2 favorite non MAC futures on the board ) 

$406/$1,000.79

WISCONSIN -155

NORTH CAROLINA +110

Thought the Badgers would be more than a -240 favorite to win the West ...Should be the chalk in all 9 BIG10 games ..Schedule sets up nicely getting their 4 toughest conference foes at Home ( Penn St.,Michigan ,Iowa , "Nebraska" ) ..Avoiding Ohio St ..17 starters return ..My position rankings have them top 15 in the country at RB, OL LB,Secondary...

My numbers have the Tar Heels as a -165 chalk to win the division .. My ACC positional rankings have them no worse than 4th in the conference everywhere except LB ..Could have the best QB, OL,DL and secondary in the ACC ...Nice to avoid Clemson , catching Miami at home looks like a big break in the Coastal race ..

I do NOT RECCOMEND TAILING THE 4 FUTURES WAGERS BELOW 

TEXAS A&M to WIN THE SEC +1200 

$200/2400

My 7th rated defense in the country ..

The schedule sets up nicely with a super soft out of conference slate , a lucky draw from the EAST with SC coming to college station,  and traveling to questionable MISSOURI .. If they can make to beat Bama at home they could end up being the chalk in all 11 other games ... Beat Bama and they could lose one and still be alive going into the finale at LSU ...

Sure Kellen Mond is gone , but I dont think the offense doesnt skip a beat ..The O Line only returns 1 starter , however he's a first team all American OT ...Running game should be great,  WRs need to stay healthy, QB Posistion has some excellent recruits ..

TO WIN NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 

( Pipe dreams  donations ?) 

TEXAS A&M  +4000.  $125/5000

NORTH CAROLINA +8000.  62.50/5000

WISCONSIN +8000.  62.50/5000

@padre16

 Thank you Brother ...Unfortunately I cant use the colors bar on COVERS using my cheap cricket android....The kids and the Mrs.have taken over the tablets and desktop permanently ...I'll be bouncing over to your house to print our earnings ...Have a Fantastic season BROTHER 

@M_M

I'm always under pressure Brother..The Mrs would never let me hear the end of it if I LOST at the end of this marathon.....Let's make Bank this season...Best of Luck 

Sorry for all the errors ...

Voice to text and not proofreading before hitting submit makes my degen ramblings tough to read