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WEEK 10

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Posted: #51
BOL BA.

Love your stuff.
 
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Posted: #52
Hey bookie, really enjoy the stuff week in week out.  My book has navy at -8, is this still a small play maybe or a no play you think?
 
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Posted: #53
Hopefully Toledo made somebody money last week.  This week ive been looking at the Colorado St @ Wyoming game.  I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on that game... I believe Colorado St -2.5 is the play.
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by JS12:

Thanks for your work BA.

For the CLMLP I missed Ohio tonight. Good thing, as it is a tight one right now.

Think I will plug Navy in there. That is one of my favorite plays this week. Can't see them losing to that putrid Temple bunch.

Do you think we are safe with Navy?

Thanks for everything BA.




Navy should be OK....

Temple QB still out / Navy's is fine.......
  * Nightbirds are beat up .....along OL especially

They (with same bu QB Nutile or whatever).....played Army tough on  the road.....so in his 2nd start...I would expect (some) regression here......Navy off 2 losses + BYE.....to lose THREE in a row?.....not likely at all

If you don't use Navy you'll have to find 2 other teams.....at higher point-spreads....like Irish.....Purdue maybe.....Michigan?........... 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #55

Thanks BA, I plugged in Navy! Really like them this week for reasons you have mentioned.

Keep up the good work, and thanks again for your hard work.

 
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Posted: #56

Oh, one last question, then I will leave you alone for the week.

Would California be a regular play over Oregon State this week?

I noticed you had the line at -16 (as did I) however the line is only 7 or 7.5. Very strange to me.

Or do we stay away due to the fishy line? I am still mulling it over...

Thanks again BA!

 
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Posted: #57
BA - I think 2 td's is too much for Wisky to cover this week. What do you think about a home dog in the Hoosiers?? Decent QB play, love their wideouts, those fade stops are brilliant. I think Indiana is going to be motivated to knock off an undefeated Wisky, who will ultimately win, but 14 is too much. Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by IamRyanMarshall:

BA - I think 2 td's is too much for Wisky to cover this week. What do you think about a home dog in the Hoosiers?? Decent QB play, love their wideouts, those fade stops are brilliant. I think Indiana is going to be motivated to knock off an undefeated Wisky, who will ultimately win, but 14 is too much. Thoughts?

SURE......a few weeks ago......
  * no covers last 5

You're kinda betting on the DUE THEORY here.......there's really nothing to suggest they get it together....vs Wisky

$$   14 is about right....line opened way too low at 10 ish

note:  Wisky has covered (for whatever reason) .....every other game ......stunk last week vs Illinois > should play tough this week?

pass for me....other than Wisky ML............BOL........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by JS12:

Oh, one last question, then I will leave you alone for the week.

Would California be a regular play over Oregon State this week?

I noticed you had the line at -16 (as did I) however the line is only 7 or 7.5. Very strange to me.

Or do we stay away due to the fishy line? I am still mulling it over...

Thanks again BA!


NO............................................

Problem?.......Beavs HC left after USC game.....they appear to be MUCH better..
   * out-gained / outplayed Tree....beat Colorado up but lost by 3....odds-makers are struggling to catch up.....7-7' is about right it looks like

I had OSU as a PLAY ON team early this year.....just now are they playing like they should have....problem seems to be former HC Andersen's relationship with his coaches / maybe players.....>> he was ripping his own coaches to the MEDIA...before he left wtf..........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by alopez14325:

Hopefully Toledo made somebody money last week.  This week ive been looking at the Colorado St @ Wyoming game.  I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on that game... I believe Colorado St -2.5 is the play.

tough one there AL.....my  lean is CSU as well......it would take an EXTENSIVE match-up analysis to figure this one out
   * which seems right up your alley

Simple question....
   $  what can Wyoming do? (offensive identity)......can CSU take it away? ..............and vice versa.................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by rimbo90:

Hey bookie, really enjoy the stuff week in week out.  My book has navy at -8, is this still a small play maybe or a no play you think?

sure small play ok.....or tease it down to 2.....with something else you might like.....Utah?.....Clemson?...............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by BubbaGumpShrimp:

BOL BA.

Love your stuff.

thanks BGS............BOL this week.................
  * I've got an ENTIRE F Gump outfit.....suit / shirt / hat / tennis shoes ++.......
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #63
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by IamRyanMarshall:

Can't say enough about how much I appreciate this. Definitely have fallen victim to betting large after a tough loss (is: SMU last week followed by a $1k bet on FAU - thank God it hit or I'd be done for the year).

Appreciate all the insight you give us here - I'm tailing quite a few of your plays this week despite your advisory to hold steady haha not a quick learner I guess. 

 

Good luck this week BA. 

 


Reckon if you have to point to ONE THING.....
  * it would be this

TO TRULY UNDERSTAND...........
  *WHY.....you must bet at 1-5%..............PERIOD

Because this 'formula'....ALLOWS you to lose just enough.....that you don't run outta cash.......unless of course you REALLY stink ha

But of course most everybody will spend YEARS....of running out EARLY....re-funding their account several times each year
  * simply because they bet TOO much.....no PATIENCE to grind it out



IF you bet this way...........AND do this........you will NEVER lose
 
* weeks before know which teams you like....in a FAVORABLE spot and match-up.....at maybe a (possible) favorable line as well

* know the number you want....WHEN / WHERE to get it

* you MUST know all this ......BEFORE the line comes out

* know BEFORE how much you will bet.....at what number
     >  don't get what you want?...........PASS.

SIMPLE

eg.  several weeks ago I circled Texas as a dog to TCU.....looking to get 7 at least
  * last week I broke down the match-up...Horns should struggle to move it sure....BUT...Horns D / DC Orlando......should give that Kenny Hill all kinds of problems.......
  $ knew I should get at least 7 with the BetOnline openers....figured it might drop later....would rise no higher than 7'  

$$  plan :  see 7'.....hit it for 1.25 > 1.5 units
                see 7.....one unit
                see < 7.....PASS.....maybe make 
                  small ML play....OR wait for it to 
                  rise

THEN......do I stay on Covers all week.....justifying....arguing my bet.....setting myself up to be a big Covers legend if it hits?

NO.......move on to the next one
  $$   I like the TEAM......the SPOT....the MATCH-UP (a bit)......and the NUMBER 
* I've done MY work.....it hits fine....it doesn't so what........................
     
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #65
BTW......that ' moving on' part.....is HUGE
  * it takes a lot of the fun out of it.....can't hang around here and BS all week......but what you have to do to stay ahead > consistently win $$  .
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #66
BA , Good Luck this week , Bud    
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


Reckon if you have to point to ONE THING.....
  * it would be this

TO TRULY UNDERSTAND...........
  *WHY.....you must bet at 1-5%..............PERIOD

Because this 'formula'....ALLOWS you to lose just enough.....that you don't run outta cash.......unless of course you REALLY stink ha

But of course most everybody will spend YEARS....of running out EARLY....re-funding their account several times each year
  * simply because they bet TOO much.....no PATIENCE to grind it out



IF you bet this way...........AND do this........you will NEVER lose
 
* weeks before know which teams you like....in a FAVORABLE spot and match-up.....at maybe a (possible) favorable line as well

* know the number you want....WHEN / WHERE to get it

* you MUST know all this ......BEFORE the line comes out

* know BEFORE how much you will bet.....at what number
     >  don't get what you want?...........PASS.

SIMPLE

eg.  several weeks ago I circled Texas as a dog to TCU.....looking to get 7 at least
  * last week I broke down the match-up...Horns should struggle to move it sure....BUT...Horns D / DC Orlando......should give that Kenny Hill all kinds of problems.......
  $ knew I should get at least 7 with the BetOnline openers....figured it might drop later....would rise no higher than 7'  

$$  plan :  see 7'.....hit it for 1.25 > 1.5 units
                see 7.....one unit
                see < 7.....PASS.....maybe make 
                  small ML play....OR wait for it to 
                  rise

THEN......do I stay on Covers all week.....justifying....arguing my bet.....setting myself up to be a big Covers legend if it hits?

NO.......move on to the next one
  $$   I like the TEAM......the SPOT....the MATCH-UP (a bit)......and the NUMBER 
* I've done MY work.....it hits fine....it doesn't so what........................
     

This is the kind of mindset I've been looking for - PATIENTS, seems key to keeping a healthy bankroll. 

I'm at $2k and bet 5% per your earlier suggestion. Felt really good about EMU tonight, stuck to my $100 bet. Felt good about Navy, happy I stuck to that $100 bet. It's a wash, but I'll take it over a LOSS. 

Getting out in front of the games is something I have to get better at. I get to see A LOT of Big10 football, some MAC, and a little Big12... Hard to feel confident about betting FAU (even tho they are down the road from me) when I see them play once a year. 

The one question I had for you about bankroll though is what % of the total bankroll do you allow yourself to bet in a given week?

Typically what i'll do is on Monday or Tuesday I'll grab the schedule and write down 10-15 games I think I know enough about, or what to know more about, to bet on them later. Then I come here and check OK what's BA saying? Wahoos? Tideman? I try to find some common ground and more importantly some KNOWLEDGE and bet those games at 1 unit. I don't think about the lines enough - yet! I know I'm happier with -6 than -7, -23 than -24, -13 than -14. I know 1 point makes or breaks me every week in at least one game, so I pay attention to what I'm taking. 

Man long post, probably set you off on a great NAP haha. Thanks again for the insight young man, talk soon. 

Marshall
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by IamRyanMarshall:


This is the kind of mindset I've been looking for - PATIENTS, seems key to keeping a healthy bankroll. 

I'm at $2k and bet 5% per your earlier suggestion. Felt really good about EMU tonight, stuck to my $100 bet. Felt good about Navy, happy I stuck to that $100 bet. It's a wash, but I'll take it over a LOSS. 

Getting out in front of the games is something I have to get better at. I get to see A LOT of Big10 football, some MAC, and a little Big12... Hard to feel confident about betting FAU (even tho they are down the road from me) when I see them play once a year. 

The one question I had for you about bankroll though is what % of the total bankroll do you allow yourself to bet in a given week?

Typically what i'll do is on Monday or Tuesday I'll grab the schedule and write down 10-15 games I think I know enough about, or what to know more about, to bet on them later. Then I come here and check OK what's BA saying? Wahoos? Tideman? I try to find some common ground and more importantly some KNOWLEDGE and bet those games at 1 unit. I don't think about the lines enough - yet! I know I'm happier with -6 than -7, -23 than -24, -13 than -14. I know 1 point makes or breaks me every week in at least one game, so I pay attention to what I'm taking. 

Man long post, probably set you off on a great NAP haha. Thanks again for the insight young man, talk soon. 

Marshall


I don't separate the year into weeks........wasn't kidding when I said there are no... GOOD / BAD weeks...
  * it's all continuous

WHY WOULD YOU?.....only reason would be IF you cash out / settle up each week

THINK ABOUT IT.....it's kinda child like really ain't it?
  * well OMG lemme whine about all my bad luck / bad beats....or hey everybody check out how smart I am !...............

LIMIT yourself to 3-5?...what if there are 10.....what if there's only ONE?



Your homework assignment..................
  *  DO IT.....it won't kill ya'

5 Teams you will be looking to play NEXT week.....and at what number
 

here are 2 spots with line predictions...

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/11604/games?dt=20171113

https://www.cfbanalytics.com/predictions.php

2 others .....Bill C predicts scores in his analysis.....Sagarin you have to figure yourself > don't forget home field (Sagarin only)

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-college-football-advanced-statistical-profiles

https://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

I'll check back late Friday.....with 5 of my own...........




The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

BA , Good Luck this week , Bud    

there he is......you too man.....................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #70

Good work 

 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by IamRyanMarshall:


This is the kind of mindset I've been looking for - PATIENTS, seems key to keeping a healthy bankroll. 

I'm at $2k and bet 5% per your earlier suggestion. Felt really good about EMU tonight, stuck to my $100 bet. Felt good about Navy, happy I stuck to that $100 bet. It's a wash, but I'll take it over a LOSS. 

Getting out in front of the games is something I have to get better at. I get to see A LOT of Big10 football, some MAC, and a little Big12... Hard to feel confident about betting FAU (even tho they are down the road from me) when I see them play once a year. 

The one question I had for you about bankroll though is what % of the total bankroll do you allow yourself to bet in a given week?

Typically what i'll do is on Monday or Tuesday I'll grab the schedule and write down 10-15 games I think I know enough about, or what to know more about, to bet on them later. Then I come here and check OK what's BA saying? Wahoos? Tideman? I try to find some common ground and more importantly some KNOWLEDGE and bet those games at 1 unit. I don't think about the lines enough - yet! I know I'm happier with -6 than -7, -23 than -24, -13 than -14. I know 1 point makes or breaks me every week in at least one game, so I pay attention to what I'm taking. 

Man long post, probably set you off on a great NAP haha. Thanks again for the insight young man, talk soon. 

Marshall

It sounds like you have two of the most important aspects down; you have a system, and you're disciplined in managing your bankroll.  Just by doing those two things, your odds increase exponentially.  I would recommend the books, Sharper a modern approach to betting, and conquering risk.  Both books are filled with valuable information.  My main goal every year is to improve, so I am always trying to learn from other cappers on this board, and wherever else.  I need to get better at making sure I have my numbers prepared for Sunday when the opening line's are released.  BA is one of the best on the forum at doing this, which is why he's always getting awesome numbers.   I would also recommend learning something like SQL, with the amount of information and analytics out there now, it's extremely helpful in making sense of crazy amounts of data.  I would check out this video, it shows some of the different things I do before every game.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCYroYf0eNQ

BOL 
 
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Posted: #72
There's also a ton of good information in the articles on pinnacle, which are definitely worth reading.
 
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Posted: #73
If youre not already doing it I would also start looking for arbitrage opportunities, in which you can take both teams on the ML at different books.  This is a method which guarantees you a profit.  The profit usually isint very much, but it's a nice way to increase your bankroll with no risk.  


 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


Reckon if you have to point to ONE THING.....
  * it would be this

TO TRULY UNDERSTAND...........
  *WHY.....you must bet at 1-5%..............PERIOD

Because this 'formula'....ALLOWS you to lose just enough.....that you don't run outta cash.......unless of course you REALLY stink ha

But of course most everybody will spend YEARS....of running out EARLY....re-funding their account several times each year
  * simply because they bet TOO much.....no PATIENCE to grind it out



IF you bet this way...........AND do this........you will NEVER lose
 
* weeks before know which teams you like....in a FAVORABLE spot and match-up.....at maybe a (possible) favorable line as well

* know the number you want....WHEN / WHERE to get it

* you MUST know all this ......BEFORE the line comes out

* know BEFORE how much you will bet.....at what number
     >  don't get what you want?...........PASS.

SIMPLE

eg.  several weeks ago I circled Texas as a dog to TCU.....looking to get 7 at least
  * last week I broke down the match-up...Horns should struggle to move it sure....BUT...Horns D / DC Orlando......should give that Kenny Hill all kinds of problems.......
  $ knew I should get at least 7 with the BetOnline openers....figured it might drop later....would rise no higher than 7'  

$$  plan :  see 7'.....hit it for 1.25 > 1.5 units
                see 7.....one unit
                see < 7.....PASS.....maybe make 
                  small ML play....OR wait for it to 
                  rise

THEN......do I stay on Covers all week.....justifying....arguing my bet.....setting myself up to be a big Covers legend if it hits?

NO.......move on to the next one
  $$   I like the TEAM......the SPOT....the MATCH-UP (a bit)......and the NUMBER 
* I've done MY work.....it hits fine....it doesn't so what........................
     

This is gold
 
 
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Posted: #75

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

QUOTE Originally Posted by IamRyanMarshall: Good Luck this week BA, love following your stuff, with Tideman and Wahoos. Between the three of you I think this washed up athlete is getting a bit better at capping, but the wager strategy is all off. Going your route this week with 1 unit plays and then a smaller unit play on games I'm not as familiar with. Last week I went 12-10 and managed to lose quite a bit of money because my smaller bets hit and larger bets didn't. Any suggestions in this area? My unit is usually $100, large plays up to $500, small plays @ $50. I'm all over the place - but hey I guess that's expected out of a rookie one year handicapper just trying to figure out which direction to run most days. Ha. Go Buckeyes - if OU wins out and OSU gets in, I'm coming to the committee myself. You don't plant a flag in the oppositions field and then get out ranked by them with the same exact record. Would just be weird as hell to see that happen.  OU is DONE.......don't worry about that one.....  * Buckeyes are IN.....unless they lose YES I DO.......STRAIGHT BETS...........1 > 2.5% or so.....of your BR......adjust as your BR grows (arguable / up to you).......maybe more (% wise) as you get better...........if a risk taker up to 5%.....if a conservative guy by nature keep it at 1 > 3% or less.KEY?..........STAY WITH THE PLAN Wanna know what my EDGE is ?   * what you do week to week....is MEANINGLESSThe INABILITY to deal with FAILURE.....or SUCCESS  * is what cost guys moneyJust look at guys here......ALL (pretty much) grown azz men  *with what 2-3 exceptions?.....bad week or two they're going nuts.....great week they're dancin' around bragging on themselves for weeks......some pointing back years from now at how awesome they were for this 2-3 week stretch..............How about EXPECTING.....failure.....as well as success ?That way when it comes.....you keep an EVEN keel.....emotionally....don't have the urge to bet MORE ....to get your losses back.......  * likewise when you're seeing things clearly > winning.........you MUST be aware that you still aren't any smarter than you were before really.....and SOON you will LIKELY see some REGRESSION........to 'your mean' As I have said before........and this really amazes me when guys don't get this.......in wagering / life.... your HITS / MISSES.....don't come in any neat / comfortable order right ?  * guys that know what they're doing here.....are gonna hit 55-57% over the long haul.....what further separates these guys is how they deal with the SIMPLE ORDER of their WINS / LOSSES......  BOL this week................

an_clap Very Well Said.

 

bol 

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