Theres an interesting situation in the Ok State Oklahoma game saturday. You can currently get Oklahoma ML +125 from a few different books, while Betonline has Ok State -3 +116. This isint a true arbitrage opportunity since there is risk, but for every $100 you place on each side you would win $25 if Oklahoma wins SU. If Ok State won by at least 3 you would win $16 for evey $100 wagered.
I dont know if it's worth the risk since you would lose both bets if Ok state won by either 1 or 2 points, which would cost you $200. if the Pokes win by 3 you would push one bet and lose the other, losing $100 and since 3 is the most common score differential in football, I will be passing. I figured I would at least point it out, so that everyone knows it's an option.
BOL
0
Theres an interesting situation in the Ok State Oklahoma game saturday. You can currently get Oklahoma ML +125 from a few different books, while Betonline has Ok State -3 +116. This isint a true arbitrage opportunity since there is risk, but for every $100 you place on each side you would win $25 if Oklahoma wins SU. If Ok State won by at least 3 you would win $16 for evey $100 wagered.
I dont know if it's worth the risk since you would lose both bets if Ok state won by either 1 or 2 points, which would cost you $200. if the Pokes win by 3 you would push one bet and lose the other, losing $100 and since 3 is the most common score differential in football, I will be passing. I figured I would at least point it out, so that everyone knows it's an option.
Moment of truth for the rookie - can I guess just ONE game that BA is going to take a good look at? Just one, boys.... Here's my homework assignment.
Couple questions before you dive in:
- What are the 4-5 factors you consider when analyzing a team? Home/away, dog/fave, offensive/defensive rank, ATS covers this year? previous matchups with opponent? etc...
Where do you find, say for a team like EMU who is 3-6, how often they cover the spread. Been on EMU all year and they've been good to me, but that's purely off watching their games and letting a small bet in the beginning of the year riiiiide.
EMU less than 3.5
--1 unit at 3
-Pass if 3.5 or higher
South Carolina less than 3
-Boy they could get beat up bad against GA or
they could build some serious confidence if they stick with them and don’t let
the game get out of hand. If the latter happens, I’d look for S Carolina to
smear UF in Week 11.
Boston College <+4
-NC State will be going on the road show after
facing a Clemson team determined to keep winning. BC a team that wants a big
bowl appearance badly it seems, they played some great football against FSU and
I suspect will do the same in week 11 against NC State.
-NC State ATS on the Road? BC Home dogs record?
Notre Dame at -7 or less
-I’ve been selling on Miami for a while now – too
many close games, and I get to see these guys in person living down this way.
In week 11 one of two things, in my opinion will be happening, either they will
be trying to bounce back from their first loss against Va Tech, or they will be
DUE for a loss and ND will hand it to them in smashing fashion. 7 or less I’d
being thinking about a 2-3 unit play.
SMU +3 or more,
-Do we see the line move if SMU can’t handle UCF
in week 10? Navy off a tough loss to Temple… Could SMU end up the favorite if
they beat UCF? SMU can score, but can they stop the option attack from Navy? I
need to do more research on this game, but it’s on the list.
ASU +4 or more
-Sold on UCLA after week 1 – don’t think Josh
Rosen is a good QB, everyone seems to think he’s 2 or 3 on the list of those
going to the NFL next year, I think he’ll be a bust. Like Josh Allen from
Wyoming far more and we’ve seen that you don’t have to go to a Big 5 school to
be an NFL caliber QB (ah-hem! Carson Wentz cough)… ASU with wins against Utah
Washington and Oregon – don’t think UCLA has enough weapons to keep up with the
amount of points ASU is going to score on them.
HA. Never thought I’d do this, but… FIU at -3 v ODU
-This program is 4-5 years old right? 158th
ranked defense giving up an avg of 36 points a game. Not betting on FIU but
rather betting against ODU because they are just a bad football team.
Toledo > -7
-Personally think Ohio is an underrated program,
but don’t see them handling Toledo’s 21st ranked Offense who is
putting up a staggering 40 points a game on average. Going up against 129th
ranked defense from Ohio. Too many points will be scored, Ohio will get worn
down, Toledo wants that MAC championship so they won’t let up.
I think I should consider moving to 5dimes from Bovada... much more favorable lines.
0
Moment of truth for the rookie - can I guess just ONE game that BA is going to take a good look at? Just one, boys.... Here's my homework assignment.
Couple questions before you dive in:
- What are the 4-5 factors you consider when analyzing a team? Home/away, dog/fave, offensive/defensive rank, ATS covers this year? previous matchups with opponent? etc...
Where do you find, say for a team like EMU who is 3-6, how often they cover the spread. Been on EMU all year and they've been good to me, but that's purely off watching their games and letting a small bet in the beginning of the year riiiiide.
EMU less than 3.5
--1 unit at 3
-Pass if 3.5 or higher
South Carolina less than 3
-Boy they could get beat up bad against GA or
they could build some serious confidence if they stick with them and don’t let
the game get out of hand. If the latter happens, I’d look for S Carolina to
smear UF in Week 11.
Boston College <+4
-NC State will be going on the road show after
facing a Clemson team determined to keep winning. BC a team that wants a big
bowl appearance badly it seems, they played some great football against FSU and
I suspect will do the same in week 11 against NC State.
-NC State ATS on the Road? BC Home dogs record?
Notre Dame at -7 or less
-I’ve been selling on Miami for a while now – too
many close games, and I get to see these guys in person living down this way.
In week 11 one of two things, in my opinion will be happening, either they will
be trying to bounce back from their first loss against Va Tech, or they will be
DUE for a loss and ND will hand it to them in smashing fashion. 7 or less I’d
being thinking about a 2-3 unit play.
SMU +3 or more,
-Do we see the line move if SMU can’t handle UCF
in week 10? Navy off a tough loss to Temple… Could SMU end up the favorite if
they beat UCF? SMU can score, but can they stop the option attack from Navy? I
need to do more research on this game, but it’s on the list.
ASU +4 or more
-Sold on UCLA after week 1 – don’t think Josh
Rosen is a good QB, everyone seems to think he’s 2 or 3 on the list of those
going to the NFL next year, I think he’ll be a bust. Like Josh Allen from
Wyoming far more and we’ve seen that you don’t have to go to a Big 5 school to
be an NFL caliber QB (ah-hem! Carson Wentz cough)… ASU with wins against Utah
Washington and Oregon – don’t think UCLA has enough weapons to keep up with the
amount of points ASU is going to score on them.
HA. Never thought I’d do this, but… FIU at -3 v ODU
-This program is 4-5 years old right? 158th
ranked defense giving up an avg of 36 points a game. Not betting on FIU but
rather betting against ODU because they are just a bad football team.
Toledo > -7
-Personally think Ohio is an underrated program,
but don’t see them handling Toledo’s 21st ranked Offense who is
putting up a staggering 40 points a game on average. Going up against 129th
ranked defense from Ohio. Too many points will be scored, Ohio will get worn
down, Toledo wants that MAC championship so they won’t let up.
I think I should consider moving to 5dimes from Bovada... much more favorable lines.
** TROY- a great eggzample of a team with huge HOME / ROAD dichotomy.......can't play at home / tough on the road
*** SMU- nice spot?.....for the Ponies.....off a probable ugly HOME annihilation by UCF....Navy a terrible match-up for SMU (usually).....so early # maybe a bit high.....Navy with Irish on deck....a TERRIBLE pass D
$ speaking of NAVY.....did you see them on my list of leans?.....nope....but SOMEHOW I played them still.....(surprised by the 7......thought it should be closer to 10) > POOF!....that looks like a great idea!.....DESERVED to lose that one....punished for making an IMPULSE buy...........
**** BOISE- another great road team / terrible at home (win but NEVER cover).....so you always consider them on the road....note CSU tougher on the ROAD
* Idaho?......they HATE playing in that ridiculous Kibbie Dome.....should be a huge advantage / but it ain't.....Vandals can't wait to get on the road.....get TF outta Moscow ha
BOVADA ?.............
HOLY SHIIT.....what TF are you doing?................
1) put a little bit in BetOnline.....basically a betting OUTLET MALL.....(if you're not gonna bet early anyway don't / until you're ready)
2) if you like to play teasers some....parlays a bit.....like having MANY options.....then use 5Dimes
* if you don't.....and play mostly all straight bets.....DON'T....unless you play FCS games too
3) if all straight bets....use Bookmaker or Heritage .....a few others fine too I'm sure............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
damm man you're on the ball......I unfortunately am not ha.....
* gotta work all day / back later
games I have circled....without (much) thought at all
** TROY- a great eggzample of a team with huge HOME / ROAD dichotomy.......can't play at home / tough on the road
*** SMU- nice spot?.....for the Ponies.....off a probable ugly HOME annihilation by UCF....Navy a terrible match-up for SMU (usually).....so early # maybe a bit high.....Navy with Irish on deck....a TERRIBLE pass D
$ speaking of NAVY.....did you see them on my list of leans?.....nope....but SOMEHOW I played them still.....(surprised by the 7......thought it should be closer to 10) > POOF!....that looks like a great idea!.....DESERVED to lose that one....punished for making an IMPULSE buy...........
**** BOISE- another great road team / terrible at home (win but NEVER cover).....so you always consider them on the road....note CSU tougher on the ROAD
* Idaho?......they HATE playing in that ridiculous Kibbie Dome.....should be a huge advantage / but it ain't.....Vandals can't wait to get on the road.....get TF outta Moscow ha
BOVADA ?.............
HOLY SHIIT.....what TF are you doing?................
1) put a little bit in BetOnline.....basically a betting OUTLET MALL.....(if you're not gonna bet early anyway don't / until you're ready)
2) if you like to play teasers some....parlays a bit.....like having MANY options.....then use 5Dimes
* if you don't.....and play mostly all straight bets.....DON'T....unless you play FCS games too
3) if all straight bets....use Bookmaker or Heritage .....a few others fine too I'm sure............
HAHA! I like Bovada's app for analysis on all my LOSSES lol
I'll put some money into betonline - I mostly take straight bets, not a fan of winning 2 of 3 and still losing all my money.
Gonna take a look at some of the games you circled, see if I can identify what you see in those games. Also working today, so just grabbed what I thought were some no-brainers.
Talk soon.
marshall
0
HAHA! I like Bovada's app for analysis on all my LOSSES lol
I'll put some money into betonline - I mostly take straight bets, not a fan of winning 2 of 3 and still losing all my money.
Gonna take a look at some of the games you circled, see if I can identify what you see in those games. Also working today, so just grabbed what I thought were some no-brainers.
* back later today.....hope to hang out / post 2H - in-game stuff
ONE UNIT
Texas +7' Navy -7 L Ark -24 N Illinois +10 T Clemson -7 S Caro +24' WV -2'
smaller
Idaho +18 W Virginia +10' Texas St +11' Nevada +22 Tulane -5' UMass +28 Marshall +10 W Kan St +4 Rutgers +3
leans
Ga St -4 Okie St (gonna bet as DOG 1 minute before KO) Minny +15' Utah St +3' Mizzou -1
$ That WV juiced a bit (-120 ish) < dumb on my part.....a HUNCH play anyway.....if WV wins...it likely won't be very close IMO....shoulda taken the 3 at +100 or so
LANE KIFFIN?......always said he was a great guy...........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
added a few......
* back later today.....hope to hang out / post 2H - in-game stuff
ONE UNIT
Texas +7' Navy -7 L Ark -24 N Illinois +10 T Clemson -7 S Caro +24' WV -2'
smaller
Idaho +18 W Virginia +10' Texas St +11' Nevada +22 Tulane -5' UMass +28 Marshall +10 W Kan St +4 Rutgers +3
leans
Ga St -4 Okie St (gonna bet as DOG 1 minute before KO) Minny +15' Utah St +3' Mizzou -1
$ That WV juiced a bit (-120 ish) < dumb on my part.....a HUNCH play anyway.....if WV wins...it likely won't be very close IMO....shoulda taken the 3 at +100 or so
LANE KIFFIN?......always said he was a great guy...........
5D hasn't processed 2 small wins for me yet, that $110.00 is the difference between + vs. - this mediocre week. Didn't do the work last week so probably deserve futility. My lucky play of the week was calling 5D and getting a nice girl who spoke good English.
Interesting MMA tonight. Love it when they have big cards like last night with a bunch of finishes.
Dilly, Dilly
0
BA, Looking forward to your post tomorrow.
5D hasn't processed 2 small wins for me yet, that $110.00 is the difference between + vs. - this mediocre week. Didn't do the work last week so probably deserve futility. My lucky play of the week was calling 5D and getting a nice girl who spoke good English.
Interesting MMA tonight. Love it when they have big cards like last night with a bunch of finishes.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
