Wednesday: I might play NIU but I want to wait until game day before I lock in my wager.
Thursday:
Friday:
Boston College +3
=-=-=-=-=-=-
Saturday:
Louisiana Tech +13.5
North Carolina -2.5
Georgia Tech +9.5
Indiana +20
Missouri +38
Temple +15
Navy +20.5
TCU +6.5
West Virginia +3
Maryland +10
Purdue +3
All lines current. ALL plays 1 unit. In some cases I post a line/game early before making my wager. I don't get the best line here on paper but for posting, its only a record. I am trying to do my best here of course but making my decisions early gives you the best chance of winning.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
60-39 ATS
This week 0-0
Wednesday: I might play NIU but I want to wait until game day before I lock in my wager.
Thursday:
Friday:
Boston College +3
=-=-=-=-=-=-
Saturday:
Louisiana Tech +13.5
North Carolina -2.5
Georgia Tech +9.5
Indiana +20
Missouri +38
Temple +15
Navy +20.5
TCU +6.5
West Virginia +3
Maryland +10
Purdue +3
All lines current. ALL plays 1 unit. In some cases I post a line/game early before making my wager. I don't get the best line here on paper but for posting, its only a record. I am trying to do my best here of course but making my decisions early gives you the best chance of winning.
I like a couple of your plays including North Carolina. However, I strongly disagree on Indiana...I see the angle, sandwich for Michigan with PSU on deck...However, Indiana won this game in Bloomington last season. Granted, the games have been close. I just don't see Michigan taking this Indiana team lightly, coming off a loss, with still so much to play for... I am not sure if Tuttle will be back. I don't think it matters. This is not the 2020 Indiana Team. Michigan will do to Indiana what it could not do to Michigan State, stop the run... I see a beat down in prime town at the Big House...and a Michigan cover...Michigan still controls its own destiny, and with some luck, could still make a NYD Bowl or the CFP...Granted, I was wrong on the Ohio State pick, but, Penn State is a much more talented team than Indiana...GL on your other picks...
LonghornHoosier
1
@spottie2935
I like a couple of your plays including North Carolina. However, I strongly disagree on Indiana...I see the angle, sandwich for Michigan with PSU on deck...However, Indiana won this game in Bloomington last season. Granted, the games have been close. I just don't see Michigan taking this Indiana team lightly, coming off a loss, with still so much to play for... I am not sure if Tuttle will be back. I don't think it matters. This is not the 2020 Indiana Team. Michigan will do to Indiana what it could not do to Michigan State, stop the run... I see a beat down in prime town at the Big House...and a Michigan cover...Michigan still controls its own destiny, and with some luck, could still make a NYD Bowl or the CFP...Granted, I was wrong on the Ohio State pick, but, Penn State is a much more talented team than Indiana...GL on your other picks...
Why would you think that they would shock the world, as a sentimental pick? Ohio State dropped in the AP poll after beating a very talented and motivated Penn State team by almost double digits. Sure Nebraska will play hard for their coach. I just don’t see Nebraska keeping up…To me Nebraska is more on par with Indiana and Maryland than they are with the elite Big 10 Teams…
LonghornHoosier
1
@GENERALWIZDOM
Why would you think that they would shock the world, as a sentimental pick? Ohio State dropped in the AP poll after beating a very talented and motivated Penn State team by almost double digits. Sure Nebraska will play hard for their coach. I just don’t see Nebraska keeping up…To me Nebraska is more on par with Indiana and Maryland than they are with the elite Big 10 Teams…
you are killing it spottie. When I see a hold your nose selection I just bet it and forget about it. I know anything can happen but whatever method you use obviously works
0
you are killing it spottie. When I see a hold your nose selection I just bet it and forget about it. I know anything can happen but whatever method you use obviously works
Indiana: In this selection (I don't take into considerations opinions on what has taken place or what could happen or any kind of stats) I only know the facts. My rating and that is based upon past seasons lines and current season lines. Its near the end of the season now and some of the early spreads they had were based upon last seasons excellence. It has taken the book 9 weeks to adjust but last week it got there and this week well we will see.
How I make my ratings in this matchup? I consider the line more than a result. In an earlier season game at home against MSU Indiana +3.5. While it didnt happen on the field last week ( and I did bet against Michigan) Michigan in my opinion is slightly better the MSU. Okay debatable but I am making a point here. That MSU vs Indiana line was incredibly difficult for Indiana. This line being +20 is much more like it and In my opinion too much towards Indiana. Reason I believe its too much is Ohio State at Indiana this season line was +21.
LHH adds in a few things that are nice benefits but mostly its about my line evaluations. It not an exact science but its successful!
I follow certain conferences more than others. I follow late games a whole bunch as there is nothing else to watch. Pac12 and Mountain West, both awesome!
I follow TV games. Public sediment.
Teams such as Michigan State and San Diego State are overrated in my opinion. Arkansas might be over rated next season. Came from no where this season and having success.
Sun Belt teams App St they have slightly fallen off against some harsh spreads, same with ULL. Coastal Carolina is (could be) the next one next season facing difficult lines.
To me this is like betting Black or red on roulette, the difference is after 10 blacks in a row a bookie steps in and puts more reds on the wheel and less blacks. If gets more difficult based upon past results. This is what I am doing according to my line evaluations.
Do I end up on Wyoming, Indiana and Temple? Yes, but I am 60-39 ( -3 units in lost juice), includes an average juice of -108 so I have room for a bad week.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
1
Indiana: In this selection (I don't take into considerations opinions on what has taken place or what could happen or any kind of stats) I only know the facts. My rating and that is based upon past seasons lines and current season lines. Its near the end of the season now and some of the early spreads they had were based upon last seasons excellence. It has taken the book 9 weeks to adjust but last week it got there and this week well we will see.
How I make my ratings in this matchup? I consider the line more than a result. In an earlier season game at home against MSU Indiana +3.5. While it didnt happen on the field last week ( and I did bet against Michigan) Michigan in my opinion is slightly better the MSU. Okay debatable but I am making a point here. That MSU vs Indiana line was incredibly difficult for Indiana. This line being +20 is much more like it and In my opinion too much towards Indiana. Reason I believe its too much is Ohio State at Indiana this season line was +21.
LHH adds in a few things that are nice benefits but mostly its about my line evaluations. It not an exact science but its successful!
I follow certain conferences more than others. I follow late games a whole bunch as there is nothing else to watch. Pac12 and Mountain West, both awesome!
I follow TV games. Public sediment.
Teams such as Michigan State and San Diego State are overrated in my opinion. Arkansas might be over rated next season. Came from no where this season and having success.
Sun Belt teams App St they have slightly fallen off against some harsh spreads, same with ULL. Coastal Carolina is (could be) the next one next season facing difficult lines.
To me this is like betting Black or red on roulette, the difference is after 10 blacks in a row a bookie steps in and puts more reds on the wheel and less blacks. If gets more difficult based upon past results. This is what I am doing according to my line evaluations.
Do I end up on Wyoming, Indiana and Temple? Yes, but I am 60-39 ( -3 units in lost juice), includes an average juice of -108 so I have room for a bad week.
Missouri has been minus 2 Td favorites 4 times this season and has no covers. This is an overreaction to this. Georgia is good but no a high octane offense, most likely too many points.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Georgia -38
Missouri has been minus 2 Td favorites 4 times this season and has no covers. This is an overreaction to this. Georgia is good but no a high octane offense, most likely too many points.
you are killing it spottie. When I see a hold your nose selection I just bet it and forget about it. I know anything can happen but whatever method you use obviously works
Thank you Sportschat appreciate you stopping in every week
Best wishes
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Quote Originally Posted by sportschat:
you are killing it spottie. When I see a hold your nose selection I just bet it and forget about it. I know anything can happen but whatever method you use obviously works
Thank you Sportschat appreciate you stopping in every week
I added FIU and although they are in a tailspin this is a spot they can win. ODU how many road wins ? 2-18 SU last 20 road games. Could this be one? yes of course. Should they be laying points with very little success on the road? nope they should always be a dog until they can be trusted to win.
FIU is a nice play but its a dog sh!t team ODU is a dog sh!t road favorite though
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
I added FIU and although they are in a tailspin this is a spot they can win. ODU how many road wins ? 2-18 SU last 20 road games. Could this be one? yes of course. Should they be laying points with very little success on the road? nope they should always be a dog until they can be trusted to win.
FIU is a nice play but its a dog sh!t team ODU is a dog sh!t road favorite though
UNC/Wake over is a decently high # but the trends suggest a cover, and recent results suggest it could be a cover by the end of the 3rd quarter. Thoughts?
You mentioned the over under but who are you you seeing for the cover? you know I have selected UNC thats what fits for me. I feel I have the advantage. We will see
Best wishes
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
0
Quote Originally Posted by JudgeBaylor:
UNC/Wake over is a decently high # but the trends suggest a cover, and recent results suggest it could be a cover by the end of the 3rd quarter. Thoughts?
You mentioned the over under but who are you you seeing for the cover? you know I have selected UNC thats what fits for me. I feel I have the advantage. We will see
ESPN FPI updates predictions for Boston College in final month of regular season
It's a special week in Chestnut Hill, as Boston College hosts Virginia Tech at Alumni Stadium for its annual Red Bandana game on Friday night.
ESPN's Football Power Index offered predictions for Boston College's 2021 season earlier in the year, but those predictions were made under different circumstances. Phil Jurkovec was the quarterback when the FPI had Boston College winning eight games in Jeff Hafley's second season at the helm. Things have gone south with Dennis Grosel under center, as the Eagles have yet to win a game in Atlantic Coast Conference play and have turned to a two-quarterback rotation featuring true freshman Emmett Morehead to try and spark their dormant offense.
Nov. 5 - vs. Virginia Tech
Preseason Prediction: 45.8% chance to win
Current Prediction: 46.1% chance to win
Thoughts: Boston College and Virginia Tech are not in a good place right now. Hokies fans are calling for Justin Fuente's head with the team struggling to a 4-4 mark, although they got back to .500 with a win at Georgia Tech last weekend. It's odd to see Boston College have a better chance to win this game now according to the FPI than it did during the preseason with Jurkovec still healthy, but that is more indicative of Virginia Tech's high expectations and subsequent failures than anything else.
Per ESPN, "The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."
Until the wallet is full.
0
@JudgeBaylor
ESPN FPI updates predictions for Boston College in final month of regular season
It's a special week in Chestnut Hill, as Boston College hosts Virginia Tech at Alumni Stadium for its annual Red Bandana game on Friday night.
ESPN's Football Power Index offered predictions for Boston College's 2021 season earlier in the year, but those predictions were made under different circumstances. Phil Jurkovec was the quarterback when the FPI had Boston College winning eight games in Jeff Hafley's second season at the helm. Things have gone south with Dennis Grosel under center, as the Eagles have yet to win a game in Atlantic Coast Conference play and have turned to a two-quarterback rotation featuring true freshman Emmett Morehead to try and spark their dormant offense.
Nov. 5 - vs. Virginia Tech
Preseason Prediction: 45.8% chance to win
Current Prediction: 46.1% chance to win
Thoughts: Boston College and Virginia Tech are not in a good place right now. Hokies fans are calling for Justin Fuente's head with the team struggling to a 4-4 mark, although they got back to .500 with a win at Georgia Tech last weekend. It's odd to see Boston College have a better chance to win this game now according to the FPI than it did during the preseason with Jurkovec still healthy, but that is more indicative of Virginia Tech's high expectations and subsequent failures than anything else.
Per ESPN, "The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."
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ODU is a dog sh!t road favorite though
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