I am not super impressed with this week's action lineup with no super wow games on slate, especially in the evening. Line your up you dates and lay our bets and whatever else you decide this coming Saturday
Lines I am curious to see around 2-3 pm:
Wolverines @ PSU - will it stay around -6?
Ole Miss @ Georgia - over -12?
Miami @ FSU - over -7.5?
USC @ Oregon - over -10?
WVU @ Oklahoma - over -7.5?
Tenn @ Missouri - over -4?
Arizona @ Colorado - AZ -3.5?
Duke @ UNC - 4.5?
RECORD:
Season = 27 - 17 - 1 ATS/ Totals (+ 16 Units )
Exotics = -$1100 or more
Week 10 = 4 - 2 +1U < if I laid off Nebraska as a late bet, I would have been 4 - 1 + 5U
BEST TEAMS list next.....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I am not super impressed with this week's action lineup with no super wow games on slate, especially in the evening. Line your up you dates and lay our bets and whatever else you decide this coming Saturday
Lines I am curious to see around 2-3 pm:
Wolverines @ PSU - will it stay around -6?
Ole Miss @ Georgia - over -12?
Miami @ FSU - over -7.5?
USC @ Oregon - over -10?
WVU @ Oklahoma - over -7.5?
Tenn @ Missouri - over -4?
Arizona @ Colorado - AZ -3.5?
Duke @ UNC - 4.5?
RECORD:
Season = 27 - 17 - 1 ATS/ Totals (+ 16 Units )
Exotics = -$1100 or more
Week 10 = 4 - 2 +1U < if I laid off Nebraska as a late bet, I would have been 4 - 1 + 5U
Sagarin's list and pt differentials: (after Week 10)
1. Michigan 96.4
2. Ohio St. 95.3
3. Alabama 94.0
4. Oregon 92.5
----------------------------------------
5. Penn St. 92.3
6. Georgia 92.0
7. Texas 91.1
8. K-State 89.3
9. FSU 89.3
10. LSU 88.2
Next >>> Oklahoma, Tennessee, Notre Dame , Washington, #15 Ole Miss (86.2) and #20 = 82.3 (Okie St.)
I find it very interesting and you can bet SOC is highly considered with matchups, defensive strength, then offense, then losses to higher ranks don't affect the plunge in rankings as much....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Sagarin's list and pt differentials: (after Week 10)
1. Michigan 96.4
2. Ohio St. 95.3
3. Alabama 94.0
4. Oregon 92.5
----------------------------------------
5. Penn St. 92.3
6. Georgia 92.0
7. Texas 91.1
8. K-State 89.3
9. FSU 89.3
10. LSU 88.2
Next >>> Oklahoma, Tennessee, Notre Dame , Washington, #15 Ole Miss (86.2) and #20 = 82.3 (Okie St.)
I find it very interesting and you can bet SOC is highly considered with matchups, defensive strength, then offense, then losses to higher ranks don't affect the plunge in rankings as much....
Play #1 - UNDER 43.5 X 2U Mia Ohio .....if Toledo and Miami could score only 38 pts, how can Akron be trusted to do their part scoring and Miami getting theirs with a 18+ mph cross field wind? One of them will score 17 and the other will not go over 24 ....and likely if they do, the one that scored 17 will score less
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
1
Play #1 - UNDER 43.5 X 2U Mia Ohio .....if Toledo and Miami could score only 38 pts, how can Akron be trusted to do their part scoring and Miami getting theirs with a 18+ mph cross field wind? One of them will score 17 and the other will not go over 24 ....and likely if they do, the one that scored 17 will score less
Play #2 - Mich/PSU Under 43.5 x1 U ....mulling taking Michigan -5 hard but going to do further research. One thing I see, Michigan amps up their defense against another good defense team and they keep the game in control (don't run up their points past 31) Against PSU, this is the best defense they are facing and a loud home crowd so I see Michigan scoring about 24 - 27 pts and do I see PSU scoring more than 17? NO....would be shocked especially with what I saw from Franklin controlling the offense under ALLAR as a rookie QB and its obvious, Singleton and co at RBs cannot overcome another strong and meaty line alone to score a lot of points.
If this total rises, I might increase this...... 24-17 or 23-17 is a prediction I see here...maybe 27-17 which is why I am fishing for a 44 or 44.5
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Play #2 - Mich/PSU Under 43.5 x1 U ....mulling taking Michigan -5 hard but going to do further research. One thing I see, Michigan amps up their defense against another good defense team and they keep the game in control (don't run up their points past 31) Against PSU, this is the best defense they are facing and a loud home crowd so I see Michigan scoring about 24 - 27 pts and do I see PSU scoring more than 17? NO....would be shocked especially with what I saw from Franklin controlling the offense under ALLAR as a rookie QB and its obvious, Singleton and co at RBs cannot overcome another strong and meaty line alone to score a lot of points.
If this total rises, I might increase this...... 24-17 or 23-17 is a prediction I see here...maybe 27-17 which is why I am fishing for a 44 or 44.5
Kansas -3.5 looking tasty but TTECH needs another win at least to become bowl eligble....could they beat both Kansas and Texas to get it? I doubt it. Does Kansas want to keep their momentum going and get some payback on TTECH?
You bet..... as they have lost their last 3 games versus and we are talking potential recruiting considerations here so I fully expect the Kansas coaches to have their team really focused vs a desperate team will be the mantra
Beside, TTECH does not win much on the road this year and Kansas is easily a strong home team so just think this is too much for TTECH to over come ....will use Kansas as a parlay for now but looking for -3 and I dive in here
Play #3 - BC -2.5 x 1U --- don't think VTECH has the team to win 2 out of 3 including BC to gain a bowl and recent history between these two suggests its a homer series with the home team winning easily each time. I also think offense vs defense they don't match well with B.C.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Kansas -3.5 looking tasty but TTECH needs another win at least to become bowl eligble....could they beat both Kansas and Texas to get it? I doubt it. Does Kansas want to keep their momentum going and get some payback on TTECH?
You bet..... as they have lost their last 3 games versus and we are talking potential recruiting considerations here so I fully expect the Kansas coaches to have their team really focused vs a desperate team will be the mantra
Beside, TTECH does not win much on the road this year and Kansas is easily a strong home team so just think this is too much for TTECH to over come ....will use Kansas as a parlay for now but looking for -3 and I dive in here
Play #3 - BC -2.5 x 1U --- don't think VTECH has the team to win 2 out of 3 including BC to gain a bowl and recent history between these two suggests its a homer series with the home team winning easily each time. I also think offense vs defense they don't match well with B.C.
Last thoughts upon first glance .....scratching my head as to why Wisconsin keeps getting inflated lines? They are just so over rated OR do not know how to utilize the talent they have ....NW continues to get better each week +11.5 is looking handsome! And perhaps, Under 42.5 in a grinding kind of game that NW loves to play and hell, Wisky will oblige I bet!
As good as Okie St is playing, UCF has a sense of desperation here and they are getting +2.5 as a home doggie with a good qb and a defense that can play with pride....good comeback on the road last week to stop the bleeding and do they keep it going to win this one and then Houston next week to go bowling? Good shot!
Play #4 - Missouri E x 2U .....really like this team a lot and at home, they are a beast to slay and I don't think Vols matchup welll vs strong Missouri run defense wall and Missouri passing game vs a weakish Vols secondary.....Missouri can mix up a nice run game with QB or Schrader for nice yardage. This line seems off but I will take it gladly
Huskies/Utes Over 54.5 looks tasty....gonna dig a little and move if it goes to 55 ....I can see Utah scoring over 20 on this Huskie defense and Huskies easily scoring at home 35 vs a weaker road defense of the Utes and in general, Penix being able to do as he pleases with his O-line and receiver package
TEASER PACKAGES 7pts: $25 each pays $50 profit
Washington OVER 47.5 with Kansas +3.5 with Georgia -4
1. Duke +18
2. WVU +19.5
3. Washington -2
4. Rutgers Over 22 haha
5. UCF +9.5
6. NW +18.5
7. Miami +21.5
8. Michigan +2 x HALF U
9. Colorado +16.5
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Last thoughts upon first glance .....scratching my head as to why Wisconsin keeps getting inflated lines? They are just so over rated OR do not know how to utilize the talent they have ....NW continues to get better each week +11.5 is looking handsome! And perhaps, Under 42.5 in a grinding kind of game that NW loves to play and hell, Wisky will oblige I bet!
As good as Okie St is playing, UCF has a sense of desperation here and they are getting +2.5 as a home doggie with a good qb and a defense that can play with pride....good comeback on the road last week to stop the bleeding and do they keep it going to win this one and then Houston next week to go bowling? Good shot!
Play #4 - Missouri E x 2U .....really like this team a lot and at home, they are a beast to slay and I don't think Vols matchup welll vs strong Missouri run defense wall and Missouri passing game vs a weakish Vols secondary.....Missouri can mix up a nice run game with QB or Schrader for nice yardage. This line seems off but I will take it gladly
Huskies/Utes Over 54.5 looks tasty....gonna dig a little and move if it goes to 55 ....I can see Utah scoring over 20 on this Huskie defense and Huskies easily scoring at home 35 vs a weaker road defense of the Utes and in general, Penix being able to do as he pleases with his O-line and receiver package
TEASER PACKAGES 7pts: $25 each pays $50 profit
Washington OVER 47.5 with Kansas +3.5 with Georgia -4
Penn State since 1998 ( We all know they have had problems being elite since Joe Pa passed on) but here is the data.
One thing to note about this data is this weeks low total of 43.5 or 44.
team =PNST and o:rank<12 and season>1998 and 18>line>0 and points<26
when PNST plays a top 11 teamand after 1998 as a dog of less than 18 points and they score from 0 to 25 points in the game and the site doesnt matter as 8 of the games within the data were home games.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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Penn State since 1998 ( We all know they have had problems being elite since Joe Pa passed on) but here is the data.
One thing to note about this data is this weeks low total of 43.5 or 44.
team =PNST and o:rank<12 and season>1998 and 18>line>0 and points<26
when PNST plays a top 11 teamand after 1998 as a dog of less than 18 points and they score from 0 to 25 points in the game and the site doesnt matter as 8 of the games within the data were home games.
Michigan and Penn st are the only 2 teams in CFB to not allow a single point in the 3Q of a game this year. 2nd half under whatever the number is
Now that is a super stat to hang your hat on, 2nd half UNDER . However, having followed a lot of Michigan scores, don't they seem to rev things up offensively in that Q and then, lay off in the 4th? That's my impression.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by HockeyNight11:
Michigan and Penn st are the only 2 teams in CFB to not allow a single point in the 3Q of a game this year. 2nd half under whatever the number is
Now that is a super stat to hang your hat on, 2nd half UNDER . However, having followed a lot of Michigan scores, don't they seem to rev things up offensively in that Q and then, lay off in the 4th? That's my impression.
Penn State since 1998 ( We all know they have had problems being elite since Joe Pa passed on) but here is the data. One thing to note about this data is this weeks low total of 43.5 or 44. team =PNST and o:rank<12 and season>1998 and 18>line>0 and points<26 when PNST plays a top 11 team and after 1998 as a dog of less than 18 points and they score from 0 to 25 points in the game and the site doesnt matter as 8 of the games within the data were home games. here is the link https://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?_qt=games&sdql=team+%3D+PNST+and+o%3Arank+%3C+12+and+season+%3E+1998+and+18+%3E+line+%3E%3D0+and+points+%3C+26&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
Interesting *** .....NOTICE that they seem to be away a lot for those games...... this IS the best defense that I recall, since the PAPA Joe era and, the most vanilla offense I have seen in a while with Franklin vs Ohio St. Will they do the same at home?
It bears watching but Harbaugh's defense is quite disciplined and knows how to stay in their lines and play one on one with safety help if needed.....it will be incumbent on PSU to establish the run TRY some play action long passes down field. We know that JJ MacCarthy can do it and also can do it on a rollout too with excellent sideline passing
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:
Penn State since 1998 ( We all know they have had problems being elite since Joe Pa passed on) but here is the data. One thing to note about this data is this weeks low total of 43.5 or 44. team =PNST and o:rank<12 and season>1998 and 18>line>0 and points<26 when PNST plays a top 11 team and after 1998 as a dog of less than 18 points and they score from 0 to 25 points in the game and the site doesnt matter as 8 of the games within the data were home games. here is the link https://killersports.com/ncaafb/query?_qt=games&sdql=team+%3D+PNST+and+o%3Arank+%3C+12+and+season+%3E+1998+and+18+%3E+line+%3E%3D0+and+points+%3C+26&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
Interesting *** .....NOTICE that they seem to be away a lot for those games...... this IS the best defense that I recall, since the PAPA Joe era and, the most vanilla offense I have seen in a while with Franklin vs Ohio St. Will they do the same at home?
It bears watching but Harbaugh's defense is quite disciplined and knows how to stay in their lines and play one on one with safety help if needed.....it will be incumbent on PSU to establish the run TRY some play action long passes down field. We know that JJ MacCarthy can do it and also can do it on a rollout too with excellent sideline passing
Yeah but to be fair we haven’t played anyone with a pulse defensively. Penn St has been very good. Give up 1.8 yards per rush attempt which is tops in the nation. I do think JJ will give them issues with his legs and it’ll open up the pass game. Both teams are very good with halftime adjustments on the defensive side. Will be up to Allar to make enough plays to keep his defense well rested in the second part of the game
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@Last2thirst
Yeah but to be fair we haven’t played anyone with a pulse defensively. Penn St has been very good. Give up 1.8 yards per rush attempt which is tops in the nation. I do think JJ will give them issues with his legs and it’ll open up the pass game. Both teams are very good with halftime adjustments on the defensive side. Will be up to Allar to make enough plays to keep his defense well rested in the second part of the game
NoDakZ, sorry for getting back to you so late..... yes, it does seem like a lot but I don't know the motivation of Caleb Williams and if he will even play. He is going in the draft and Lincoln should be thinking about next year, so maybe they had a conversation? I would think Caleb would play for sure but you never know with today's athlete and maybe Lincoln opens up the playbook for him and he runs wild knowing he won't likely bowl and wants to leave on a high? Check the headlines.
I personally think USC is not even a top 30 team and Oregon is a legit #4-5 rank so, the line is about right especially how strong the Ducks are and the fact they want to continue to impress and also help Nix be in consideration for Heisman.
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by D-Town:
Good luck with your plays Last.
Thanks D-Town
NoDakZ, sorry for getting back to you so late..... yes, it does seem like a lot but I don't know the motivation of Caleb Williams and if he will even play. He is going in the draft and Lincoln should be thinking about next year, so maybe they had a conversation? I would think Caleb would play for sure but you never know with today's athlete and maybe Lincoln opens up the playbook for him and he runs wild knowing he won't likely bowl and wants to leave on a high? Check the headlines.
I personally think USC is not even a top 30 team and Oregon is a legit #4-5 rank so, the line is about right especially how strong the Ducks are and the fact they want to continue to impress and also help Nix be in consideration for Heisman.
Concerned about some lines swinging opposite to my plays, but even more about the weather in Washington game with side /cross field wind at 20 mph for the game with Utah.
Teaser 7 pt: Half U plays > Key Washington Under 60.5 with Alabama -3.5 with Michigan +2.5 with:
1. Michigan Under 53
2. B.C +8.5
3. Miami Oh Over 34 pts
4. Liberty -6.5
5. Missouri +8
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Concerned about some lines swinging opposite to my plays, but even more about the weather in Washington game with side /cross field wind at 20 mph for the game with Utah.
Teaser 7 pt: Half U plays > Key Washington Under 60.5 with Alabama -3.5 with Michigan +2.5 with:
Why isn't Michigan/Penn St- Alabama/Kentucky- and Kansas/Texas Tech at night????? They do they same thing in the NFL. They squeeze all these 1pm games and leave 3 garbage games in the late window!!
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Why isn't Michigan/Penn St- Alabama/Kentucky- and Kansas/Texas Tech at night????? They do they same thing in the NFL. They squeeze all these 1pm games and leave 3 garbage games in the late window!!
Why isn't Michigan/Penn St- Alabama/Kentucky- and Kansas/Texas Tech at night????? They do they same thing in the NFL. They squeeze all these 1pm games and leave 3 garbage games in the late window!!
You have to wonder Giantfan18.
Are people's attention turning to something else or are they trying to lead people to afternoon games before T-Giving as a strategy, so they are not out all day shopping with their wives...giving them an excuse haha??
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
1
Quote Originally Posted by GiantFan18:
Why isn't Michigan/Penn St- Alabama/Kentucky- and Kansas/Texas Tech at night????? They do they same thing in the NFL. They squeeze all these 1pm games and leave 3 garbage games in the late window!!
You have to wonder Giantfan18.
Are people's attention turning to something else or are they trying to lead people to afternoon games before T-Giving as a strategy, so they are not out all day shopping with their wives...giving them an excuse haha??
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haha
. However, having followed a lot of Michigan scores, don't they seem to rev things up offensively in that Q and then, lay off in the 4th? That's my impression.
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