Week #11 (3 Weeks left)

@Fuse

 Thanks Fuse ....based on betting line action, I think I could be in trouble. 

It will all come down to this first game, as usually when my instinct to find the ONE right away happens and I hit, I tend to achieve over 50% on my picks

The lowering wind mph worries me a little 

you're having a great year again (as usual) just keep up what your doing buddy

Thanks, I look up to your discipline and using your style if you noticed  .....cutting down on plays and adding updated analytics matchups when I get Sagarin updating the numbers and then, if I don't agree with his number (such as early fade of Michigan and some others and push on Georgia and Alabama despite diminished personnel)

And, the fact I am now retired with no more 6 figure income, I am watching my money a little better 

By the way, I am in the midst of charting NCAAB plays and trends. I stumbled upon a massive trend over there on the first day and its playing out so far (yesterday in a big way)

I know some cross over into that sport after the season:

OVER trend I see jumping out the gate here in Non Conference play....and based on every game whether D-1 or D-2 vs D-1.....anything listed on the COVERS scores for NCAAB.

 Day #1 OVERS = 133 - 49

Day #2  = 25 - 4 (last night!) 

= 158 - 53 overall = 74.88% OVER on all games so far

PICK SUMMARY:

PICK SUMMARY:

Play #1 - UNDER 43.5 X 2U Mia Ohio  

Play #2 - Mich/PSU Under 43.5 x1 U 

Play #3 - BC -2.5 x 1U

Play #4 - Missouri E  x 2U

EXOTICS: 

TEASER PACKAGES 7pts: $25 each pays $50 profit

Washington OVER 47.5 with Kansas +3.5 with Georgia -4  

HIGH WIND ^^ CONCERN

1. Duke +18

2. WVU +19.5

3. Washington -2

4. Rutgers Over 22  haha

5. UCF +9.5

6. NW +18.5

7. Miami +21.5

8. Michigan +2 x HALF U 

9. Colorado +16.5 

Teaser 7 pt: Half U plays > Key Washington Under 60.5 with Alabama -3.5 with Michigan +2.5 with:

1. Michigan Under 53

2. B.C +8.5

3. Miami Oh Over 34 pts

4. Liberty -6.5

5. Missouri +8

Play #5 WIND PARLAY HALF U pays almost 1U  Maryland - Nebraska Under 43 (19.5 mph crosswind) with Washington Under 47.5 (22 mph crosswind) 

IF Michigan is the #1 team, they should roll @PSU vs a putrid offensive set that I saw vs the Buckeyes!

So long as Wolverines are scoring out front ahead of PSU, I should have no worries since Allar is not equipped yet as a rookie to comeback on a strong defense and top team, as we saw with vs the Buckeyes. Unless Michigan is a fraud team, then I should be fine here.....

Michigan -4  x2U  (-125) < buy the half point just in case....

Love a strong cross field wind 

0-0 in the 2nd Q for Maryland-Nebraska

Next crosswind game is Utah - Washington and I am beginning to lean with Utah a little as their run game is decent and they can hit the short pass well vs this soft Huskie defense at times....BUT, the UNDER is looking good for going UNDER 47.5 if Tua's brother is having trouble throwing in a slightly lighter wind than will appear today in Washington

@Last2thirst

 I see 49.5 on Wash Utes .  

Shoot....I shoulda waited. Thanks for the heads up 

I see 49.0 on BET365

PICK SUMMARY:

Play #1 - UNDER 43.5 X 2U Mia Ohio  

Play #2 - Mich/PSU Under 43.5 x1 U  

Play #3 - BC -2.5 x 1U  

Play #4 - Missouri E  x 2U

Play #5  Michigan -4  x2U  (-125) 

@Last2thirst

 I'm with you on under.  BOL

What is your Play #4

EXOTICS: 

TEASER PACKAGES 7pts: $25 each pays $50 profit

Washington OVER 47.5 with Kansas +3.5  with Georgia -4  

HIGH WIND ^^ CONCERN

1. Duke +18

2. WVU +19.5

3. Washington -2

4. Rutgers Over 22  haha

5. UCF +9.5

6. NW +18.5

7. Miami +21.5

8. Michigan +2 x HALF U  

9. Colorado +16.5 

Teaser 7 pt: Half U plays > Key Washington Under 60.5 with Alabama -3.5  with Michigan +2.5  with:

1. Michigan Under 53  

2. B.C +8.5  NO!  

3. Miami Oh Over 34 pts  NO!

4. Liberty -6.5 

5. Missouri +8

 WIND PARLAY HALF U pays almost 1U  Maryland - Nebraska Under 43 (19.5 mph crosswind) with Washington Under 47.5

Nice....hope its a profitable tail 

Missouri E for $200

Damn....both defenses are Swiss cheese and wind no issue because players are wide open

@Last2thirst

 It happens...  appreciate your time and post

Seriously thought I was gonna have a rough week the way the lines were moving against me.....

 Play #1 - UNDER 43.5 X 2U Mia Ohio  

Play #2 - Mich/PSU Under 43.5 x1 U  

Play #3 - BC -2.5 x 1U  

Play #4 - Missouri E  x 2U  

Play #5  Michigan -4  x2U  (-125) 

...just have exotics to be settled now

4 - 1  ATS/Totals  (+6 Units)

SEASON NOW:  31 - 18 - 1  (+22 Units)

EXOTICS: 

TEASER PACKAGES 7pts: $25 each pays $50 profit

Washington OVER 47.5  with Kansas +3.5  with Georgia -4   

HIGH WIND ^^ CONCERN

1. Duke +18   

2. WVU +19.5  

3. Washington -2  

4. Rutgers Over 22  PUSH

5. UCF +9.5  

6. NW +18.5 

7. Miami +21.5  

8. Michigan +2 x HALF U   

9. Colorado +16.5 

+ $350

Teaser 7 pt: Half U plays > Key Washington Under 60.5  with Alabama -3.5  with Michigan +2.5  with:

- $250

 WIND PARLAY HALF U pays almost 1U  Maryland - Nebraska Under 43 (19.5 mph crosswind) with Washington Under 47.5 

- $50

Made a little bit haha.....just fun! Top Teams being formulated

AFTER WEEK #11  - BEST (based on my eye and what I think will happen)

 1. Michigan

2. Ohio St.  

 ------------------------------------------

3. Georgia 

4. Alabama  <<<< should be #4 (finish strong/dominating!)  

-----------------------------------------------------------

5. Oregon

6. Florida St. ( would lose to all teams above/fodder !)

7. Texas   (kind of sputtering like Washington)

8. Washington

9. Louisville

10. LSU

 Next Group: 

11. Missouri

12. Penn St.    

13. Oregon St.  

14. Kansas St.

15. Ole Miss

16. Oklahoma

17. Arizona

18. Tennessee

19. Kansas

20. Notre Dame

   MAYBE..... 

21. UTAH 

22. UNC 

23. Duke

24. SMU

25. Texas AM

---------------------------------

26. Clemson

27. Liberty

28. James Madison

29. Auburn

30. ?? > NC State / UCLA/  Iowa /  Air Force / Tulane/ Memphis/ Fresno /UNLV/ Troy

I think Alabama will get left out.