Week 12

@Boa33

 You can find and use my name on social media 

Nice to see Neon Deion and team provening..... could care less about all the noise that I hear concerning him which boggles my mind.

He is no Bobby Knight from the Hoosiers (was my fave team in the 80/90's and Hoosiers made me $$ despite Knight's tirades) and he is doing his best to get eyes on his players and program.....as well as himself but he can back it up on the field and now as a coach. 

You stand out because you are always early on your weekly analysis

Thank you! 

- Are you always playing these equal units?

I don’t disclose units.  Everyone’s risk tolerance is different.  I see more clearly as the weekend approaches.  All these are plays and will be plays on Saturday. 

- These games vary between multiple conferences, are you using numbers to help you make your determination of picks or is it based off what you see?  I personally only follow 3 conferences closely so I tend to only dabble with what I know very well.

I don’t watch the games as much as I want.   It’s all day long and I don’t watch YouTube for highlights either.  I would be even better at this if I had the time to research this.  You’re trying to pick my brain which is impossible because I have a system that is plug and play using a database site that I now have to pay for.  You are getting the benefit from my experience and my expenses.  The best thing I can say is lines and valuations from past lines made up from linesmakers much smarter than I. I use my ratings and their smarts against them. Past public opinion also matter.  One example is When people see dogs turn into favorites they they tend to trust those teams when in reality I think in a lot of cases the value of the dog teams is diminished.   Example… Army is awesome this season not because they have 5 star athletes,  they play a reasonable schedule with reasonable lines.  Same with BYU the big 12 lost its big time leader teams and is allowing lesser teams to climb up.  Let’s see how Colorado and BYU do as big chalk. Let’s see how good teams like Utah do as big dogs. The meandering of teams and lines is very important to my success. 

- Are you only playing college football?

No I play NFL too but I do play mostly dogs and the best nfl dogs are before week 12.  After that the good dog teams become trusted favorites that continue having success.  colts are a great example.  Great first half team.  Now should go back and forth or possibly sink like they did this week.  Viking also started hot. Let see how they continue on.  The Chiefs and Lions failed this week after they have been rolling.  Stay tuned on those.  The NFL forum is a waste of time for me. So many people post useless threads. 

Nfl has become to hard to cap for me, my success is only in college sports.

NFL is about data for me, but much different and specific.

@Last2thirst

 Deion is not a great X’s and O’s coach.  He know how to attract the right players and so far has used his connections and contacts to get the players the right coaches.  He has so many contacts in music and football he is using that to elevate everything about the team quickly.  The players want to be elevated and recognized.  That’s exactly what is happening.  

In my opinion, CU will be much different next year without a senior outstanding experienced QB and a generational Travis Hunter. 

I watch every CU game this year and last year but long term I can’t say that will be the case. 

Why don’t I lay -10 with CU.  Deion has young inexperienced coaches that are learning on the fly. This isn’t Nick Saban who has see it all.  He is also learning big conference football on the fly.  They make too many penalties and even get penalties before getting in the end zone.  

Shedeur has been allowed to hold on to the ball at will.  Some teams can exploit him.  See Nebraska.  The Utes are that type of experienced team that can cause CU in to difficult situations.  CU probably wins this game but not by 10.  If I lay 10 points I want. A 20 point lead near the end of the game for a cushion.  That’s not happening this week.  No way no how

@Boa33

 Work your butt off and make connections.  It’s life.  When you’re passionate and willing to learn people will take you places.  

keep digging that’s how I got to posting early.  

sometimes the lines I post here are not relevant by the weekend. It’s not my job to shop for you.  I post early because of people like you and last to thirst want to talk and exchange.  Also the smart hard working people like wahoo post early as well.  The smart and hard working show up early.  

@spottie2

 I guess I'm previewing the rest of this season totally differently than you..I feel it's going to be all about resume building for playoff seeds.  And in CUs case building Hunter's Heisman  candidacy. Travis is PRIME Times biggest and PROUDEST player he has ever Coached besides Shedeur. I look for Travis and Shedeur to go off down this homestretch..They will run up scores to insure that they stay in the limelight AND improve their seeding, juz in case they lose BIG12 C G....

Yes, I agree line might be a little high than it should but this is Everything PRIME has dreamed of. Playoffs..unreal???  Prime was happy juz getting a bowl for that 100yo lady superfan. This is the time for Buffs to shine..handily beat a TT squad in Lubbock after Red Raiders juz took down ISU last week in Ames...They really have a great road right in front of them and I feel the Utes will be the next victim.  Utah has been very unimpressive this year. They got great qb play Saturday but...Shedeur will be First QB taken next NFL draft..who you taking?? Maybe take BUFFS team total OVER might be safer?

Since I'm talking playoffs, what is YOUR conferences playoff breakdown to 12 teams?? If ARMY is undefeated, are they worthy of a spot?  

I feel their will be unreal motivation to make resumes look better. In CU's case, extra for Hunter's Heisman candidacy. It's just the way PRIME rolls. He's gone after this year anyway, seeking a HC position along with drafting Shedeur to a vulnerable NFL franchise..good Luck to that team  

You Know, like me, PRIME ain't that great of a coach but he's a helluva salesman..Love to peruse your playoff spots and seeds..gonna be great CG games too

Since I'm talking playoffs, what is YOUR conferences playoff breakdown to 12 teams?? If ARMY is undefeated, are they worthy of a spot?  

I feel their will be unreal motivation to make resumes look better. In CU's case, extra for Hunter's Heisman candidacy. It's just the way PRIME rolls. He's gone after this year anyway, seeking a HC position along with drafting Shedeur to a vulnerable NFL franchise..good Luck to that team  

You Know, like me, PRIME ain't that great of a coach but he's a helluva salesman..Love to peruse your playoff spots and seeds..gonna be great CG games too

This is not my style.  I have no clue how all this plays out.  I start the season based upon last years standing and ats results and following lines and ats meanderings as the season progresses.  What about CU have you see when they lay -10 or more this season?  what about Utah getting 10 points.  The lines maker runs interference.  

Let me better explain coin flip betting.  10 straight heads in a row.  Not only is the tails probability increased but there is a lines maker involved saying if you want heads the line is not 50/50 anymore.  If you want heads its -140 juice on heads and +120 on tails.  How does Army go  from week 2 +1 lined vs FAU to -23 against Airforce ( Army has not been favored against them in over 15 years)  Indiana -14 or more to Michigan.  These are bad examples because there are only a select few of the teams a year. 

Here is the thing!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Pick 15 favorites that had an outstanding week the previous week.  Bet all 15 of those favorites every week !  What do you think your long term ROI is going to be?

Now bet the opposite. 

@spottie2935

 Only a select few teams that come from nowhere can accomplish this feat week over week.  Army has never been this dominant. Indiana ? nope maybe only a few random seasons but not consistent season after season.  BYU? on a few occasions but the next season back to random.  

Most of The teams that are ranked every year have ups and downs covering.  One bad example of this is Notre Dame.  I know how they dominate as favorites (Penn State as well) It limiting the opponents offense.  To cover as chalk points given up is most important. When Penn State and the like are able to run the ball and play keep away and eventually score 7's that puts their weaker opponent under pressure.  Penn St also has had lot of rest for their defense.  Its just a successful recipe, and consistently.    I dont bet against these running defensive teams,  As a dog bettor I need to score points and keep the games close. I need my offense to have the ball and make use of the offensive opportunities.   I dont need the last stop to win the game, thats what favorites do to cover.  My dog team isnt built for that.  Again there are very few consistent teams that are to be trusted as favorites week over week.  15 games I find enough week favorites to push and or win to keep a strong enough ROI.  

Lastly and its difficult for me to avoid trash but avoiding trash is also important. 

NO  :

Charlotte 

Utep 

Temple recently although I am guilty of playing them. 

New Mexico St

Kennesaw

U Mass

Akron

Vandy before this season 

North Carolina -11  Vs Wake

Tell me about North Carolina's ability to limit Wake Forest opportunities.  UNC was a dog to Virginia! and only -2.5 to FSU who cant stay on the field on offense.  FSU is a good D team but their D is their offense.  

UNC gave up 70 points to a good JMad team that tells the story.  They are not good enough on D to eliminate Wake from scoring opportunities and separating from the -11 line  North Carolina last 2 weeks outstanding games are history and the books have stepped in and closed the door making this -11 too much.  UNC can cover but -11 means a 20 point lead late to insure a back door cover.  UNC's last 5 games lines are between -3 and +3.5.  I like them as a dog as they score and at +10 or more points thats their zone but -11 nope.

South Carolina :

This is tricky but the data loves the dog Missouri +14 

SCar has covered the last 4 easily.  The thing is rating and lines here.  That is the gamble here is the line enough.  Well past line this season when SCar was a big favorite.  ( yes I know Missouri's QB is out or whatever skip this for a moment and focus on the season lines below)

4 time a favorite this season :

last week -6 at Vandy easy win in the second half

-2,5 easy win vs Oklahoma who is having a difficult season. They couldnt get first downs and keep the ball. 

-20.5 to Old Dom, 4 point win 

-23 vs Akron blow out win 

This line is -14 and looking above at the other big lines Missouri is far better. SCar is an underdog team or low lined team that can dictate the game.  They dont play for blowouts.  If the other team is so inept it happens,  This means they play down to their opponents levels.  Missouri plays good D and will limit SCar's opportunities as well  -14 is not a good recipe for covering. 

Remember pick 15 favorites and try to win a better portion of them.. Missouri can stay close, and they dont have to win.  Even without the #1 QB. You may disagree but thats where you have to pay better attention to my success. 

Missouri is the same type of team.  Dont lay big points on them bet small lines or dog lines.  If a big favorite line happens they will make the other team lose they will not separate because of skilled offensive talent. 

Missouri is 14-4 ATS as an away dog against any ranked or unranked team at any line when their opponent has covered 2 + games.  At home in the same situation pretty much the same at 15-8 ATS situation.  Combined 29-12 ATS.  It what they do consistently year over year.  SCar is the same type of team and -14 will be too many.  Covering -14 will be because of Missouri's mishaps not because of SCarolina Missouri's history has proven that they dont destroy games that often. 

Okay I have given enough previews 

Best Wishes all 

Nice plays

Hope Utah comes through

@MrFreedo

 Thank you for the complement 

best wishes on your plays. 

Army is awesome this season not because they have 5 star athletes,

opps Army  does not have 5 star athletes.   They have opponents that they can dominate and control.  They are not playing teams with elite skill playmakers.  They are not playing teams with bigger stronger athletes that will dominate them.  The are playing like a or lesser type teams so far.  

All these favorites lines for Arizona against better teams than Houston. Arizona has issues.  Houston on the road at +2 lol. 

LSU lost back to back games and not close.  Those were against excellent teams.  Florida is not excellent and pretty much all LSU has to do is win. After 2 losses this game is like a steak dinner at the chop house.  They are starving, hungry  and going to feast. If they don’t that will create a lesser ranking and once again the linesmaker adjusts off that information. 

If Utah covers they will limit mistakes and limit CU offensive opportunities.  Can they keep the ball and get first downs.  Can they use the tape of what Nebraska did and although they don’t have an elite QB not even close. Their top rusher is averaging 6 yards a pop.  That alone if that continues will create problems for CU’s offensive continuity. Utah also plays close games in losses.  No matter good or bad teams they just are a nuisance. That’s why this is only the second week they are dogs with a back up QB.  -10 is a lot if they are allowed to play Utah football.  

FAU’s D has been piss poor the last few weeks that’s why they are a dog to Temple.  The good news is Temples defense is even worse the last 2 weeks.  This is an opportunity for FAU and their offense will get opportunities to make plays.  FAU scored 37 on UTSA they can score here.  Thats what they need to do. 

Missouri  is 18-4 last 22 those 4 losses:

LSU

Alabama 

Georgia

Texas A&M

beat S,CAR last year 34-12.  

This is why things become more clear by Saturday.  first data search then investigate teams and matchups. 

week = 12 and tA(rushing yards-o:rushing yards) - oA(rushing yards-o:rushing yards) > 50 and AD and line < 11 and C and t:wins < 8 and o:wins!=5

Good luck Spottie.  

The MAC is about big lines and big favorites covering.  Big dogs suffer at a big loss ROI.  The bottom of the MAC teams can not play.  I am going to post both Toledo and N. ILL as small plays in my thread.  Action plays sort to speak with strong data to support them.  These are local teams that don't make much money so it makes sense.  

No data sorting on the MAC lines less than -14 or higher is 165-135 ATS 55% its steady long term.  The lines dictate the cover because the dog teams can't hang.

Small plays :

Toledo -15.5 

N. ILL -16.5

Small plays :

Toledo -15.5

N. ILL -16.5

MIA Oh -30.5