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Week 12

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spottie2935

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2001

Posts: 18853

Posted: Nov. 11, 2024 - 11:14 AM ET #51

@Indigo999

This might work. In my opinion this year has been different. Let’s see how you do on these.

best wishes

an_cheers

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank

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jpitty

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 941

Posted: Nov. 12, 2024 - 4:01 AM ET #52

@spottie2935

Have you watched S.C.? D-line is ridiculous and their home field advantage is insane.

QB is no slouch either. Missouri is ass.

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spottie2935

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2001

Posts: 18853

Posted: Nov. 12, 2024 - 6:58 AM ET #53

@jpitty

best wishes thanks for stopping in. There are 2 sides to the game and nothing wrong with balanced action.

an_cheers

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank

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spottie2935

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2001

Posts: 18853

Posted: Nov. 12, 2024 - 7:02 AM ET #54

In the king of covers contest my record is 82-55 since October 19t. Overall I’m ranked 111th

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank

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spottie2935

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2001

Posts: 18853

Posted: Nov. 12, 2024 - 7:10 AM ET #55

59.85% last 137 plays and yes this includes fading Army and Indiana.

Those teams kill me but good thing for me those are only 2 teams that excel to this standard of consistency. The rest fail consistently as a package. No matter how many plays there are only so many good favorites. The favorite I fade fail most often after excellent performance. The lines matter, not what I watch the previous week on TV.

an_cheers

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank

0

spottie2935

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2001

Posts: 18853

Posted: Nov. 12, 2024 - 7:21 AM ET #56

Utah is in the bottom 5 in the Big 12 standings yet have surrendered the least amount of points in the conference.

They are tough and physical and going to test CU’s undisciplined, penalties play at times. CU also has one of the worst executing special teams in the conference. Lately Mark Vasset the punter has been less than consistent but he does punt well in critical moments. If CU gets down early in this game, which is their norm. They might have a difficult task making a comeback against a superior defense with a strong history of success the last few seasons.

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank

0

spottie2935

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2001

Posts: 18853

Posted: Nov. 12, 2024 - 7:24 AM ET #57

Utah is 10th overall with 154 points against this season.

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank

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JJWoods

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2024

Posts: 430

Posted: Nov. 12, 2024 - 7:33 AM ET #58

@spottie2935

Agreed on Mizzou peace_5 good luck !

“That's thirty minutes away. I'll be there in ten.“ - winston wolf

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spottie2935

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2001

Posts: 18853

Posted: Nov. 12, 2024 - 7:42 AM ET #59

@JJWoods

best to you as well an_cheers

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank

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spottie2935

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2001

Posts: 18853

Posted: Nov. 12, 2024 - 3:59 PM ET #60

maybe nothing to do with anything for this season but I find these interesting.

Lines, and past lines, matter to me most. The experts give you teams and the next week they take them away.

Big 10 data from and not including 2015. Week=12 Home favorite B10 conference teams 5-17 ATS and also week 13 next week 7-15 ATS.

Interesting enough none of these home favorites this season are very consistent as being elite.

Maryland: They have had some good dog, but 2 very bad games as decent lined favorites. -7 to Mich St= loss and -10 to NORTHWSTN loss. They beat USC as dogs to counter the bad favorite games, but its established play against them as chalk.

USC, Who knows about this bad favorite. Yes they have had some good, not great games. UCLA on deck

Illinois. This is only the 4th time they have been the chalk this season! the other opponents: Purdue -21 failed to cover , C.Mich -21 push or cover because this line moved to -21 late in the week, E. ILL -28 cover. AS favorites this ILL team has a poor rating from the books. They were ranked and dogs a lot this season. Now favorites with a low line. I dont respect Illinois because the books have not lined this with respect.

Washington: this is a spot for them to be successful their past 5 games were against some of the best. UCLA is not. The thing I really like about them from the past lines is at Indiana only +5.5 this is stinky UCLA and its only -3.5. One additional this is they also Handled Michigan at home as a small favorite. Same kind of game I think. 14 point Wash win here.

Dog teams are:

UCLA. I pass on teams that are dogs every week. There is no line volatility with teams like this. No look ahead games just always projected to be the worst team.

Mich St. I dont have that much respect for them because of past lines. On the other hand facing ILL, I dont think is a bad spot to back MI St here. MC St cover here they will be a favorite to Purdue in their next game.

NEB, lost its last 3 and still sit at 5 wins. Home to WIS next week and At Iowa to finish the season. That travel to the west coast has been harsh for some teams. NEB is rested though. The thing I like is NEB has been respected by the books being favored 7 times on the season now a dog. This is strong dog signal.

RUTG: 4 disappointing weeks in a row before last weeks win against a tough Minn team. Rutgers can hang with MARY with +5.5 points here as a nice cushion for Rutgers.

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