week 2

BIG PICTURE - a week in which the betting dumbazz is often exposed ...... OVERreaction frenzy ha

The following teams don't (necessarily) suck

     * Oregon   Vols   E Caro   Tulsa   NAVY**   Cal **   Washington **   TREE **    N Caro 

The following aren't (necessarily) world beaters

    * Army   N Illinois    Hokies   NC ST    TEXAS ** 

          ** = they just might sure

IF you have determined a team was good / bad thru your (exhaustive) RESEARCH - one stinking game is meaningless. Either make a SMALL bet on them to bounce back, or stay TF away for now.

     >> eg. Washington should be MUCH better, to jump on stinking Michigan would be silly, laying TD. SURE Huskies might get killed, it's just a dumb way to go about your bidness that's all.

Tough week IMO, all one unit or less in descending order kinda

WKU +7

S Caro +2 

Tenn +4

Ark St +5

Ball St +22

E Mich +26

SMU -21

Hawaii +11

likely   USC TT  OVER    Duke   N Dakota   Irish 1H / over maybe    UAB 1H    Iowa St < 3   Rice   Wash / Mich 1H UNDER    Utah

maybe   Miami, O - check Gabbert status   Cal 1H    Buffalo ??   A&M   Kentucky   Vandy ???

  Good to see you around BA, good luck in Week 2!

Got my @ss kicked in week 1, but it's good for me.  A little too aggressive based on prior year's week 1 success.  And a little sloppy on the early summer plays.  Hope you faired better thus far.

yep you were getting WAY too cocky ......................

haha BOL buddy ................

CHECK STATUS OF QB

     $$ you can't rely on injury reports at all any more ...... BTW stop being an idiot and believing the coach, who has every incentive to lie ffs

              >> not gonna kill ya, google name > DIVE IN

MIAMI, O - Gabbert didn't even play last week wtf / didn't see anywhere

Ga Southern - 1st 2 OUT / really rolling with 4th string true F (Werts transfer) / backup is RB

Col

EMich 

GT

ILLINOIS

Memphis - Gunnell OUT

Okie St

TEMPLE

Wazzu ??

Ariz St - Daniels likely

FLA ST

N TX - starter Aune poof disappeared

S CARO

also    Iowa St TE Kolar      Ducks DE Thibodeaux

@bookieassassin

 Damn, all caps, I better double book my shrink.  

Keep it coming on the knowledge!  What else you seeing this week to keep an eye on?

BA thanks like always, your threads taught me when I first started reading on here to try to sort through the BS of who's really bad and who had an off week/got caught peaking ahead and yeah this week hopefully doesn't expose too many of our evaluation skills. Just read Stanford was taking 37.9 seconds per play on offense in a game they were trailing the entire time... yuck. As bad as I want that +17.5 when it pops I just don't think I can stomach it. As far as the other side of the list yeah Texas confuses me, don't think they can keep things as simple as they could Saturday going forward so we'll see. 

Tennessee needs to bench Milton to cover

Gladio - TREE plays no D anymore .... getting worse every year L3 (Steele p171). LY allowed 32 pts/g - 5.5/rush - 6.6/play. KST av 7.6/play FFS !. AND off a SU loss, D loosens, instead of tightening up like they used (10-3 OVER off loss). That's why I'm lookin' at Trojans TT over.

    BOL man ........

FC - Vols make me nervous sure, but PITT favored by 3+ here ? Turrible spot for those boys.  BOL this week ..................

Get it BA!   Hook em' Horns!   

So you may like Cal 1st half?   Why?   Energy and sense of urgency off the loss to Nevada?    I like TCU to cover for the game.   

I still can't believe ECAR is favored against an SEC team. Although SCAR should be DOWN this year.

LH- good man BOL ......

    * only reason I'm not on the Horns, is because I've been on them (prematurely) way too many times before ha ... I'm big on fading teams that OVER- achieved the year before, being a 'regression to the mean' kinda guy - so looking to maybe fade the Hogs for sure. Won't kill me to just watch here don't think .... Maybe mentioned before, had the opportunity to talk with James Street (love that guy) AND Bill Montgomery (great dude, lives in Turtle Creek).... about '69 .... how great is that?

L - yep that is really a weird # ..... I had that one at SC -5 or so .... so couldn't help myself with a small play at least. A Covers 'trap game?' for sure ha. BOL man ............

@bookieassassin

 very happy to see your stuff! Exceptional "knowledge" and "feel" for the ncaaf! been reasing you for years now and now I am reading you again! thank you for providing bookieassassin! you are "top shelf"! let's light them up this year! best of luck too, something we all need!

@bookieassassin

 funny!!!

Damn W1941 check's in the mail man! haha Kind words much appreciated btw .........

Always like reading your posts. Took a smash week 1. BOL this season! 

OVERreaction = opportunities. 

Looking @ WKU +7…last meeting was ‘19 WKU won 17-9. Thinking they come in with a similar game plan/discipline of stopping the run (held Army to 137 run yd). If WKU can get something going in the air, hard to imagine Army trying to play catch up.

@bookieassassin

 The best 

SNF - wassup man ! The finest situational capper around boys.......

 WOOOO HOOOO ... Good luck bookie!!!

Aune is off to Kansas now, looking for a chance to show off his sillz id imagine .. lol .. maybe one of the reasons for all that KANSAS STEEEEM droppin that line .. after last week Jayhawk fans have declared he's not a dark horse heisman anymore .. he's a white horse heisman!!!

Army nearly covered total 49 by themselves last week and that was with captain insaino level defensive havoc .. Monken shooting for one of those 70 point carpet bomber games for the 9/11 anniversary .. maybe not that high but don't think he plays ho-humm here and goes for the throat early and late .... Zappe shooting for 70 also .. lotta cannons .. the one worry is WKY's run stifled vs UT Martin .. then switched to pass only and rattled off 10 straight scoring drives .. 9 TD's to 1 FG .. 

Yeah Tenn but need that to 4.5, on the over in that one too .. we got some great deals early after UNDER MAYHEM last week .. Wish we had Troy moving the that direction .. +6 opener down to 3.5 .. bummer, itchin to play them took them under in 100* teeth gritter ..  

Wisco H1? .. 13.5 /14? should be no dicking around .. Wisco w alot of players "???" but man need to see a few guys play a half and execute some offense before next week .. wisco actually did put quite a few more drives together than PSU .. just more stalled out .. what a game .. 

G-So rolling .. but vs G-Webbbb .. G-Webb also rolled mmm not bad .. 

Gators rush is rolling .. backup QB looking like Cam .. #3, #4 RB's both 5***** .. 2nd string seein action vs S.Fla for sure .. salty for being 2nd and scores more than the 1st string? .. mullen wouldn't do a fellow florida school wrong by jumppin on their necks would he ? .. he did let up on last drive vs FAU where he coulda really landed a total over for me ... 

USC in a dog fight vs SJ into Q4 .. could see Tree draggin them into the deep end and seein if they can cover late again .. Mckee not bad .. West was bad .. 

UGA loses 3-2 .. did kirby say he's concerned about covid? .. that real? .. maybe adding to his laundry list of players .. 

Think its upset central again .. 68% of FBS only dogs <TD win SU 5/6 home dogs .. plus FCS shenanigans .. the models aren't caught up in one week .. recall 20+++++ UD's covering last year in games 2 and 3 ... anyone really think NM is a sure shot 91% winner vs NMSU? .. not sure we see LY's TOTAL ARMAGEDDON but quite a few bad spots this week for favs and LOOOOTTTTA short home dogs that have not been on gamblerz good side for a while .. Navy, Akron, Cuse, Tenn, Rice, Ark St, etc .. books def laying some traps for us this week .. 

Didn't MICH look BOMB-TASTIC in the opener last year? .. spread/win prob from 50/50 to 70% Mich .. idk .. maybe! .. not all teams tangling badly with FCS getting equal treatment by books/gamblerz .. think we could check a few of those games out and see who just had a dud game 1 and who is a real dud .. hint .. vandy is a real dud .. ETSU defense good but offense should not be scoring 3 TD's, slow and one dimensional in spring ... UC Davis my fav FCS'er not to make the playoffs, great game by them ..  wash does have all those WR's out and no confidence in their offense btw i have little confidence in that side of the ball .. 

Hawaii with 300 starters back, some legit playmakers, some guys 3rd year starting, is a big dud? .. Bows with Iowa fever.. HC son is OC lol .. need a list of all the nepotism coach hires and Rhett Rod starters stat .. 

When's the last time Rutgers beat anyone by 47 points? .. honest question my data only goes back 12 years lol .. highest mov i found is 37 pts vs S.Florida .. 12 years ago .. 

Good to seeeya brother and good luck!

BA

Talk to me about E Mich....Wisconsin ran 90 plays vs PSU (only ran 50)...shoulda/coulda/woulda won that game 34-10....I think WIsc dominates the trenches and EMU D aint PSU D....not saying 26 isn't a big number, but if Wisconsin doesn't have turnovers I think they can put up 45....Can EMU score 3 tds? 

N.TEXAS Q1 ML? .. what will that be based on SMU -6.5 or 7? .. i got SMU -21 but will take a stab at that my Q1 ML's and Q1 ML/Total parlays been workin so far ..  seeds to a huge SMU cover may not be planted in first 15 mins w projected 3 zillion possessions .. might just need the opening kickoff and/or SMU to stumble in one drive to land that .. really need Dangerous Deondre Torrey to help it out .. maybe before launching at SMU -21 see if we can launch at -17 or -16.5 after a few drives .. 

@TRAIN69

I'm thinking along those lines .. if yer Chryst you really want to not know whose what offensive plays could work goin into next week? .. i don;t think so .. would def try alot of things this week and get Mertz and really all of that offense some confidence .. could also dud out but no way think he's gunna take it easy here .. they dick around on offense and who knows could very well be sweatin all game again .. 

duplicate post .. wtf covers .. nowhere else on the internet is annoying the way you are with this cool new piece of crap format .. 

Good Stuff as always BA - much appreciated

Personally - think best on board this week is Kentucky -5 with Mizzou.  Good Luck as Always!!!