Week 2 FCS

Not a bad start in Week 1...taking a look at the following FCS matchups and will be looking to pick a few later on in the week.

As per the current 5dimes lines @ -120 juice:

1) Weber State @ South Dakota (-8.5)    Weber is supposed to be much improved this season. Didn't show in the opener...45-6 loss to Utah State, giving up 428 yards rushing. Ugly....USD lost @ New Mexico 48-21 and gave up exactly 428 as well. New HC for USD and scheme may give Weber an opportunity.

2) EWU @ NDSU (-14)  This one opened at NDSU -17 and has come down fast in the wake of EWU's win over WSU last week. But, NDSU has had 2 weeks to prepare. The key will be EWU new QB Gubrud.....he made playing at WSU look easy...34/40 474 5 tds 1 pick with another 77 yds rushing and a td.

3) Northern Arizona @ Western Illinois (-10.5)    Northern Arizona is picked by many to win the Big Sky behind QB Cookus. On the road vs a mid-pack MVC school will be a more reasonable litmus test than @ ASU.

4) Montana @ UNI (-14)     UM looked mediocre against St Francis last week, but managed to come from behind and win at home. UNI looked solid @ ISU, and is tough at home. May be reality check time for the Griz.

5) St. Francis @ Towson (-8.5)    Watched St Francis last week vs Montana. The travel for St Francis could be a factor here. Towson is one of my sleeper teams this season, and could be tough. Need more study.

6) Illinois St @ Northwestern (-12.5)   NW is not a good offensive football team and Illinois St has some talent in the trenches. Have to look harder at ISU and determine if they can get some QB play on the road.

Will post plays as they are made. GL to all, and thoughts are welcomed.

You have to be kidding me.

Keep me posted on if they honor that wager or not......5dimes has been known to welch on "error lines."

motowner- Best of luck to you this season.

Td- Good input. To be honest, I have no idea what a "Massey Rating" is. I will have to look into it.

I like the ML play at +950 though...that is a heck of a payout, and the truth is EWU HC Baldwin's offensive scheme is lethal when he has a trigger man. It is pretty early to tell, but Gubrud won the job in the spring over two returners. If EWU has an elite QB then they can play with anyone.

Still cannot believe 26.5

But, that is the value of attacking some of these FCS 5dimes lines. The -120 and low limits are a bear to overcome, but the fluctuations in pricing can provide opportunity.

I found the massey ratings page...I must be overlooking how they got 26.5 though...where is that calculation?

The mean or median predictors? Those only tape out at 12 and 9.

Any help on that one is much appreciated.....

First play this week....pick in bold.

1) Northern Arizona (+10.5) @ Western Illinois

After watching the NAU @ ASU tape, it was competitive 13-6 late in the 3rd when NAU ran out of gas. Same old story...missed opportunities and lack of depth caught up with NAU, but they did play clean and QB Cookus 23/33 369 no picks.

On the other hand, WIU got out 24-7 over EIU at the half.....benefitted from 3 turnovers, was outgained 468/347, out first downed 21-18.....of course, game situations pretty much made those stats worthless as WIU was in protect mode.

This week the Big Sky is heading to the MVC venues, with EWU @ NDSU and UM @ UNI and NAU @WIU. NDSU and UNI are elite national teams, and WIU has a lot to prove on the national level.

This is the one matchup where the Big Sky has the best chance to show on the national stage..If NAU continues to play clean, they should be able to throw it with Cookus and challenge WIU for the W.

Best of Luck to all.