WEEK 2 lines / leans / notes

Here's a decent VEGAS style top 25.....
  * a combo of Gold Sheet / Sagarin / Linesmaker power ratings....with a bit of my own sprinkled in here and there

 THE REAL TOP 25

1   FLA ST          100
2    BAMA            98.5
3    OREGON       98.5
4    AUBURN       95.0
5    UCLA              94.5
6    OU                  94.0
7    GEORGIA      94.0
8    MICH ST        94.0
9    BAYLOR        93.5
10  TREE              93.0
11  USC                93.0
12  A&M              92.0
13  LSU                 91.5
14  OHIO ST        90.5
15  FLA                 90.0
16  S CARO          89.0
17  N DAME         89.0
18  OLE MISS      88.0
19  WISKY            87.5
20  KAN ST           87.0
21  OKIE ST          87.0
22  WASH              86.5
23  CLEMSON      86.5
24  LOUISVILLE    86.5
25  ARIZ ST           86.0
also........
26  TEXAS             86.0
27  BYU                 85.5
29  N CARO           85.5
29  ARIZ                 85.0
30  MICHIGAN       85.0
31  VA TECH         84.0
32  IOWA                84.0
33  MIAMI               84.0
34  TCU                 83.5
35  NEB                 83.0
36  PENN ST         83.0
37  OREG ST         83.0
38  DUKE               82.0
39  UCF                  82.0
40  TENN                82.0
41  MARY               82.0

*not a bad start in building your own numbers....
do it by conference maybe....
eg.   Big 12

OU            94.0
Bay           93.5
Kan St       87.0
Okie St      87.0
Texas         86.0  
TCU          83.5
-----------------
then using whatever PR numbers you like
  *Sagarin...Massey...Dunkel...Steele....
    finish....then finally adjust them the way you want
maybe like this....

TTech    81.5
WVirg    79.0
Iowa St  74.0
Kan        73.0


FYI...........................

I'M  REALLY  NOT  SURE.....
  *WHY  SO  MANY  ARE  CONFUSED  BY  POWER  RATINGS / AND  THEIR  USE....
  *many pros.....who often bet multiple sports....may base a play solely off PR differentials.....one of 2-3 points = a play in NFL.....maybe slightly more in CFB 

ME?....I use them as a starting point.....to suggest VALUE
  *just as a day trader might for example

I then investigate further....considering situational and match-up factors........> kinda sorta..... 'what is this companies track record / past performance......leadership .....what does the future hold?...+++++
  *sometimes if the value is great enough of course....you play immediately

WHY.....in TF
  *would anyone interpret having a solid basis for determining VALUE........as some GUARANTEE of success?......
especially game by game?.....

EGGZACTLY.....how OBTUSE can (you) be?......no limits it seems....
  *IF..... 2 given teams would play say 10X for example....you would see that (solid) numbers are pretty close

eg.   Bama vs Ole Miss ?.....they play 10X.....Bama's MOV would probably be about 7'-10 points on average......The Rebels might just win that 1st one........does that mean that your numbers were wrong?....or even need to be (necessarily) adjusted......OF COURSE NOT ................... holy crap it ain't that tough ........

back shortly................

BTW.....I did not adjust these to fit my personal opinions
  *IMO.....FSU ain't the nation's top team.....UCLA ain't #4 right now
adjustments were along the lines of 'correcting' extreme discrepancies......
  *ie.     Sagarin has a team 20 spots lower that the Gold Sheet and others.....I might bump them up a notch or two 

is that why you were so far off on wash/haw?

Great stuff, as always, BA!   I'm on, at a minimum,  CSU, Sparty, Wyo and the USC/Stan Under. BOL and thanks for the wisdom!

IT'S ONE F'IN GAME STUPID

  *very few adults with an IQ in the triple digits....would draw conclusions from one game....a minor adjustment of  2-3 points max is the standard......only well into the season can you really conclude much.....esp since Husky QB was out.....a potentially 3-7 pt adjustment,,,,,depending on how good Miles turns out to be

I ASSUME YOU WILL ACCEPT MY CHALLENGE?
  * and share your great knowledge?

and stop being a spineless / pompous little b-i-t-c-h that contributes nothing? ...........

Good stuff bookie and lol @dumberthanyou should go eat a d i c k brah

good man BOL this week............

I believe STY is actually a chick.....
  *the way (he) never contributes....only complains

MAYBE .....she will post some pics......if not too root-like
  *or at least bring the MEN beer / sandwiches perhaps while we're working.....who knows maybe offer up some booty.......

As in.....what are the possible reasons BC can (even hope) to keep this one close?..........

Kinda looks like they get rolled here don't it?
  *Pitt finally with an OL and (maybe) great RB...and great WR
BC.......with..................nothing really......
 *with injuries....now 2/6 starters...PLUS 2 st WR are OUT...(ret st OG Williams is out)

???........Pitt in Chryst's 2nd year kinda got worse....SOS bout the same,,.....
D with 8 ret starters (with Outland winner Donald) was worse wtf...
  *pts 21 > 27...TD 331 > 368...4.9 > 5.5/play ...15.7 > 13.5 yd/pt
3.8 > 4.0/rush.....so now (5 back) they get better in 2014?....or worse again?.......BC with Murphy at QB may be able to move it here........??

ST went from #51 or so in 2012 to one of nation's worst in 2013 (#103)...use of field position from #45 to #89
O about the same.....slightly less efficient.........

They seem to struggle (more so) on the road as well......BC pretty tough at home (5-1 SU / 5-1 ATS).....played Fla St tougher than anyone else.....beat VT

With the (looks like) HUGE talent edge.....Pitt seems to be worth the risk.....I'm pretty bad at guessing which Pitt team shows up....so no play for me..........

good stuff year in and out.  GL BA!

Just about every newsletter has BC winning

Just ignore this twit.  This is why great posters get sick of Covers and take off.  I'd hate to have that happen.  One of three threads worth reading on a consistent basis.

man you gotta like the Salukis there...
  *bring back 16 st from a team that took E Illinois to 2 OT  LY
Jimmy G was the difference (34-56 / 440)....Salukis systems firmly in place (but new OC/DC).....Panthers of course with new HC / systems....off misleading game at Minny (scored 2TD last minute or so wtf) .........glad I had the 33'..........Sagarin has SI as 6 pts better....meaning they should be favored here .............................? 
  *his FCS numbers are usually pretty good it seems
  Massey has EI favored by 9

I like ULM too....just a terrible spot for the Vandals....
  *fly to Gainesville by way of MOSCOW somehow.....returning to MOSCOW..........then to MONROE , La somehow .......HEAT
  *ULM with LSU on deck.....should TCB here...........
   

IF......we were smart
  *we (me) would focus like a MOFO on games like this ........
I think for the helluva of it......a fine degenerate move

FIU.....off a life/death struggle with BC.....has Pitt on deck...can't be too fired up here.....
Bethune Cookman ......about 15 pts better than Wagner / so slightly better than FIU.......TOTALLY shut down FIU....Panthers only 186 TO...2.4 / play....and 1-16 on 3rd .........
  *that Mario Cristobal has gotta be ROTFLHFAO ..........

Problem here....is it's really hard to get a read on Wagner
  *most PR numbers say the line is about right....7/7 st back from 3-8 ........Seahawks lose QB/ RB.....but 4/5 OL back and did beat Georgetown (the football team I believe)............last week......

ain't gotta worry 'bout me Skipster.....
  *this sack-o-sh-i-t......don't bother me
Sam Kinison taught me how to deal with hecklers...........
 *whether simply ignoring his silly-a=s=s here.....to setting the record straight........or perhaps giving his mom a volcano-like.......lecithin mega-dose fueled facial....followed by me shaving her moustache > leaving her with a Hitler.....just for grins...my heart rate never rising above 65 or so...................

Bol, BA. Great info. Much appreciated.

All we really need is to focus on winning football bets.
Twits come and go, but bankrolls will increase with our
ability to focus on the task at hand.

BA, Best of Luck this Week  

good man GotNYCinme.....all the best................

a few injury updates.........new stuff in bold
  *D = doubtful....P = probable

WEEK 2 KEY injuries
  *check status
https://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/
https://www.philsteele.com/FBSInfo/schoollinks.html

QB  
TEXAS     ASH is OUT
Army      Schurr  P
Baylor    Petty OUT
FAU       Jaquez Johnson P
Mich St   Cook P
New Mex   Gautsche D / Mitchem will start (7 st / capable)
-----------------------------
UConn     Cochran OUT
BGreen    *** Johnson OFY ***
Miss St   Prescott P
USC       Kessler P

RB / WR
Ark St    Gordon P
Army      Maples P
UCF       Stanback P
CM        WR Davis....D
Iowa St   WR Bundrage  OUT
Kan St    WR Lockett  P
Kent St   RB Durham D
Mich St   Langford P
Okie St   Roland ?
S CAr     Davis....?
USF       Tice + WR Davis
Vandy     RB SEymour P
--------------------------
NW        top WR TONY Jones OUT...as is bu McHugh
           *note former top WR Christian Jones OFY
            as is RB Mark (quit)
NIU       RB Stingily still out
BAY       WR Norwood out 3 wks...several more WR ???
Kentucky  RB Heard out  
Col St    TE Cartwright OUT
PITT      WR Boyd P


also.....

TEXAS  5th yr C (40 starts) Espinosa OFY
       *check status of BYU NG Marques Johnson off susp
        OT's Harrison and Estelle OUT
  **** vs BYU...Horns now have 0/5 OL st back...and 4 STARTS **** (both G with 2 / bowl + NT)
DUCKS  CB IEO is P
NEB    DE Gregory (best def player by far) OUT
Army   OL banged up
Kentucky WR's
Minn   Def front
NMex   OL
UNC    DB's
Ohio   OL
Wazzu  WR's

That Matt Johnson injury kinda slipped past me.......

Bison.....CB......Jose.....WG.....azplaya ()..............

46 not much....but BYU / Texas looks like a 17-13.....21-17 type game don't it? 

BA ... as a follower of urs, I try to keep track of your weekly choies. Because u provide so much info I'm not sure I have a handle on it. My ? is .. do you ever do a single post before the weekend w. ur picks ?

  

thanks man.......
about to wrap it up....

posted earlier

TOP PLAYS
  *2 units+

Akron +17'
Col St +10'

ONE UNIT

Zona -7    L
Wazzu P
Ball St +17'
VT +12
Kentucky -9'

smaller
Tulane +10

*also played UTEP/ TT over 64.....Tulane / GT over 52
will probably add......
N Illinois ....Wyo......Ark St

maybe...Utah....Terps....FLA!....Duke TT.....Cal?....Miami O ?....TX +7' / under 52 ??

The negativity from some people here is unreal.

Thanks for all your work here, BA. It's appreciated.

BANK IT.

 got it tks .. I did have it right but wanted to make sure

What a tool and a troll......ignore the noise.  No one puts more time and details into this forum that you BA.  Thank you Thank you for your diligence and knowledge.