Week 2 Picks with Write Ups

Weeks 0-1 in the books.  Was a solid week as picks were 4-2 and plus 3.85 stars.  Not a great week with picks as 2 of the wins should have been losses.  Pitt was fortunate to win by 7 – shows the importance of getting a good line as I had 6.5.  I think West Va is better than I thought.  I knew Daniels was good and I thought he was fantastic considering Pitt was all over him.  Penn St also lucky to win as Purdue outplayed them.  Louisville was one of the worst plays I’ve had in a while and was shocking.  They were outplayed and drastically outcoached – give Syr credit.  The first week can be very tricky so coming out positive is always good.  Now teams have a game to review and play should improve moving forward.  The trick is to try and not make to many quick judgements.  What I like to do at the beginning of the year I have plays I target for weeks 2 and 3.  I think teams can drastically change after week 1 so I look at week 1 to see if it confirms the play or not.  On to week 2 – plays below – will provide 1 write up and others later. 

5* - Kansas St -8 (only see at 8 in Wynn)

4* - Pitt +7

4* - Iowa TT Under – not released yet but should be at least 21.5 based on line and total – no matter the line this is a play. 

3* - Duke +10

3* - Ga South – Neb Over 59.5

3* - West Va -13

2 * - Florida -4.5  

Kansas St – 8 – I really like this Kansas St team and I think this is a great spot for them.  I have them as one of the best teams in the big 12 and Missouri a middle of pack team.  Kansas St didn’t show much in week 1 – they got out to a quick lead then sat on it.  Not much to conclude from that game based on the opponent.  Missouri did what they needed – they didn’t show anything that made me think differently of them.  La Tech is terrible and mainly a pass team and their QB looked awful and threw 3 first half picks.  La Tech only ran the ball 15 times so they could not test the Mizz run def. 

Kansas St Offense vs Mizz Def – I really like Klein taking over as coordinator and I think they will show a lot in this game.  If you look at the bowl game last year he was very creative.  I think you will see some tempo at times and more explosiveness this week.  Vaughn is an elite rusher and now you add Martinez as well so their run game will be terrific.  Missouri gave up 227 yds rushing per game at 5.3 per carry last year.  They will be improved but K St will be one of the best rushing teams they will face.  I think Martinez will have a great year behind way better coaching and a way better off line with an elite running back.  He had none of that in Neb – best decision he made was going to Kan St.  I think they will put up some points in this one against a below avg defense. 

Kansas Defense vs Mizz Off – Kansas St is always solid on def and returns 7 starters and have good players at each level.  They only gave up 21 pts/gm last year and 345 yds/gm.  They have Khalid Duke back as he played last week and up front they have excellent pass rushers in Anudike-Uzomah and Matlack.  They were top 4 in both pass and run def in big 12 and are solid all around.  Mizz returns 4 starters from the off line however they lost their best player in Badie.  They did get a top recruit in Burden at receiver – only 2 catches last week so not much impact.  This will be Cook’s first road start.  I expect the Kan St def to hold them in check and probably get at least 1 or 2 mistakes from Cook. 

Outlook – There is some excitement around this team in Manhattan.   Martinez always showed flashes and now has a very good QB coach and coordinator in Klein.  They have speed at wideout and an elite running back with solid defense and great special teams.  They are solid all around and I think their offense will show explosiveness this year.  There should be great energy in the stadium for this one.  Mizz is 2-8 on the road under Drinkwitz (2-4 ATS as a dog).  This is a good matchup and I think Kansas St wins this one easily. 

Prediction:  Kansas St by 21

I like the Kansas St. pick.  Good Luck!  

Like Kans.St. always seem to do well on them. Don’t trust Pitt. or WVa. GL

@CFBLMONSTER

 Good write-ups......Thanks for doing this.

4* Pitt +7 – I bet this at plus 5 before the season so kind of screwed myself there but also put some at 7.  I thought before the season Pitt should be favored in this game.  The public likes offense so Tenn is getting tremendous respect (public betting at 76% on writing this) here against a team that beat them at their place last year, won the ACC, and returns the same amount of starters.  I am surprised and not sure if this line increased because of how Pitt looked or if people watched Tenn against Ball St (which should be irrelevant).  I think the extra 2 days greatly helps Pitt in this one as they are off an emotional win and it also gives them a little more time to prep for tempo.  Tenn is a good team and this will be a battle but this line should not be 7 as Pitt is more than capable of winning this game and they are at home.    

Pitt Offense vs Tenn – I didn’t think Pitt was sharp in the opener as I was disappointed in their off line and running game.  WV does have a good def line and did a good job against them.  Normal to be a little rusty in the opener and learning a new scheme.  Slovis was a little rusty – he missed wide open td passes downfield on back to back possessions in sec half but did lead them on late drive of 92 yds to tie game (was 16-24 for 308 yds – still solid).  Even with that they still scored 31 against a solid def.  I expect them to be better and their off line to block better this week.  Pitt did show they can still throw the ball well.  Tenn gave up over 500 yds per game last year when playing teams with a winning record.  I do think they aren’t that bad on def as their stats are a little misleading because the offense plays so fast so they get more possessions.  They return 7 starters from a def that was last in SEC in yds/gm given up against teams with a winning record but 9 in yds per play.  I do think Pitt will score on this team (they will have to) and Slovis will have a big day. 

Pitt Defense vs Tenn Off – This will be a great match up as everyone knows how good Tenn is on offense.  One key stat last year is they were 121 in nation in sack % given up per pass play (11.7%).  They are going against a nasty front who was all over Daniels last week.  I thought Daniels was fantastic and made some excellent throws and I’m not sure Hooker will be able to do the same but he will have better skill around him.  Tenn will use a lot of short passes to help with the pressure and Hooker has mobility to help.  Pitt last week gave up several big runs on the same zone running play -this was linebackers being out of place (mainly Kamara).  I believe they fix this and its probably good for them to see this on film.  Pitt is deep on the def line which will help them stay fresh with the tempo.  They will be able to create some negative plays.  Tenn will score and most likely hit at least one big pass play for a td as Pitt is aggressive on def.  Pitt has the capability to hold them around 30 pts which I think is enough for them to win.    

Outlook – Pitt went to Tenn and won last year.  I actually don’t put much stock on that as Hooker didn’t come in till the second qtr and both teams were a lot better at the end of the year.  It does help with mentality though as Pitt has almost all the same players at the line of scrimmage back on both sides.  Pitt should have a good crowd on hand and they will be playing the disrespect card all week as extra motivation.  I expect their off to look better after having a game against a good opponent under their belt.  I was big on Pitt coming into the year.  I did think they would handle WV a little easier but I think playing that kind of opp and being able to see game film will help.  Considering I thought Pitt should be fav in this game before the season I think getting 7 makes this a good play.  This will be a good game and I think Pitt pulls this off. 

Prediction:  Pitt by 4 (money line is worth a play – plus 205) 

4* Iowa TT Under 22.5 – Fanduel is the only one that has released this and they cap you in the one I use at $295 right now (they are ridiculous with limits).  Others should be released in next day or two and worst case will be 21.5.   This is not an overreaction to last week.  Coming into the year I thought Iowa was going to be worse on off this year.  So seeing that game last week put a stamp on that.  Iowa is without at least 2 of 3 projected starters at WR coming into year (Ritter out for year and Ragaini out for a few weeks).  Johnson is not on this weeks depth chart and listening to Ferentz in the press conf after the game it sounds like he might not play.  This means they truly have nothing at receiver – even if Johnson plays it doesn’t change my perspective. 

I expect Gavin Williams back but that really doesn’t matter in my mind as they will struggle to run.  Iowa lost a first round draft pick at center and his replacement Logan Jones moved over from def line and last week was his first start.  He had 1 bad snap and struggled inside (total grade of 59 – pass block grade of 26).  The entire off line was awful and could not block South Dakota St.  They had a PFF pass block rating of 18.5 as a unit – that is unbelievably awful.  They couldn’t handle their speed and movement.  Iowa St has a good nose guard in Isaiah Lee and an All American DE in McDonald.     They should be able to create issues. 

Now on to Petras – he was awful last week and really had not been good his last few starts (last 5 games he played last year 46-88 for 547 yds with 3 picks and 1 td) .  He has nothing around him except LaPorta.  Iowa St only has 3 starters back on def but Campbell is a good coach and they are always good on def.  Phil Steele has their def line #3, linebackers #2, and def backs #5 in rankings in big 12. Last year Iowa only gained 173 yds and the reason they won was turnovers.  I don’t see Iowa doing much at all on offense and they will rely on their defense as usual. Iowa St has a new punter – he was rated pretty high out of high school and last week had punts of 50, 48, and 42 so that will help greatly with field position since Iowa has a stellar punter. 

Outlook – Campbell is a good coach and I believe they will be cautious on offense in this one and rely on defense based on what happened last year and since they have a QB making his first road start.  Biggest risk is turnovers and possibly OT.  Iowa does have a freshman kicker who missed a kick last week so that also helps.  I think this will be a slugfest and I expect Iowa St to play extremely well on defense and if they can force Iowa to drive 70 plus yds on drives I don’t see Iowa doing that.  I think Iowa St will actually win this game as I will star that pick as well just like the TT a lot better as Iowa is still great on defense. 

Prediction:  Iowa 10 pts    

Adding the Total for the game

2* Iowa St – Iowa Under 41.5 – for reasons listed above.  Iowa St QB making first road start I think they will be conservative and Iowa has a great punter so look for field position to be key.  Always risk with a college total in the low 40s and I don’t play them often but I just can’t see pts in this one as both coaches will rely on defense. 

Prediction:  26 pts 

Adding Iowa St

2* Iowa St +4 – Wynn has plus 4 (only one I see).  I like Dekkers at QB and even though this is his first road start in a tough environment I think he can do enough.  Iowa St has a great receiver in Hutchinson and a solid off line.  They will rely on their def and be conservative but I think they get this game.  My biggest concern is that Iowa’s defense makes some plays.  Also a little concernced with their fg kicker but Iowa is in similar scenario – both fg kickers are freshman. 

Prediction:  Iowa St by 6

On Duke Myself, leaning on the Iowa under (seems like everyone likes this)

Cash those tickets this week 

Good stuff brother. Im waiting to see 1st H lines for the Iowa/Iowa St game....Iowa TT will be 10ish and total 20ish....will eyeball those to avoid the possible nightmare that would be some ridiculous 10 OTs game....

I'm leaning the opposite on Iowa... I think we're getting a fantastic buy low spot here against an ISU team that lost everything.

@TRAIN69

 Iowa first half total is 11.5 and total for half is 20.5 in DK. Watched an interview with Iowa receiver Arland Bruce and it sure sounds like Keagan Johnson will be out.  He isn’t on the depth chart either - although coaches aren’t always accurate on those.  Biggest risk with the total is too much def or overtime.  Good luck 

@GamblinDAWG

 I could see where you think that and they very well might win cause their def and punter are really good but they most likely are without their top 3 receivers and breaking in a new center.  Will be tough for them but their def is good - especially at home.  Good luck 

3* Duke +10 – Both teams off of good performances in week 1.  Duke beat NW last year and really dominated the game (up 30-7 at half and put up 558 yds) – NW made a push in the sec half but lost by 7.  I really like Mike Elko and always thought he was an excellent def coordinator.  His impact showed last week as Duke looked way better on def (granted Temple stinks but still).  NW lit up Neb in the opener and dominated the line of scrimmage.  They look a lot better this year but now in a role as a favorite which is a spot they haven’t done great in under Fitz ( last 4 years 4-8-1 ATS as home fav and 23-35-1 overall under Fitz).      

Duke Offense vs NW Defense – Riley Leonard looked really good in the opener.  He completed his first 15 passes and ran for over 60 yds.  I know its Temple but his decision making was good and he made a few really good throws.  Moving Jordan Moore to receiver was a good move and adds more athleticism to the offense (had 6 catches last week) and helps compliment Calhoun who is solid.  I liked the flow of the offense – they gained 337 yds in first half then took the foot off the gas.    NW still showed some wholes in their pass def against Neb so I think Duke can move the ball and Leonard’s mobility will help as NW doesn’t see mobile QB’s very often. 

Duke Defense vs NW Off – NW looked terrific in the opener as their off line dominated and Hilinski looked really good.  This off was awful last year so I don’t think they magically are great but are for sure improved – I think they had a great gameplan against Neb and the Neb def isn’t that good.  Duke looked great in the opener – they showed great discipline and tackled well (tackle rating is 27 in nation).  Temple did nothing - they had 50 yds at half.  You could see the impact of Elko – he has smart players at Duke and will get them to line up properly which is the key to playing good def.  Similar to how NW has played in the past – not many great players but they know their assignments.  Duke was bad on def last year so they are not all of a sudden great either but improved.  They do have 2 really good players in Carter on the dline and Heyward at linebacker and do have some athleticism.  I think they can hold up well in this one. 

Outlook – When NW is good they are best in the underdog role not as a favorite.  Duke will be more athletic than them in this game and this will be a rare time that Duke will play a power 5 team and there not be a talent gap.  NW typically doesn’t have more talent than teams but they execute and don’t beat themselves.  Duke has smart players as well and Elko is a good coach who has this team believing.  I think this will be a good game and Duke should be in it till the end.  They will also play hard so if they happen to be down 14-17 pts a backdoor would be possible.  They are capable of winning but I don’t think they will win as NW is improved and should find a way to win so I won’t play the ML. 

Prediction:  NW by 6 

Ga South – Neb Over 59.5 – This total has gone up since I posted the plays yesterday – its now around 63. 

Ga South Offense vs Neb Def – Ga Southern is moving from the option to a pass heavy offense as Clay Helton took over as coach.  This normally would be a disaster year one but they brought in Vantrease from Buff at QB and Singleton from Hou at WR.  They also return 4 starters on the off line.  In week 1 they ran 78 plays – 46 passes – their opp was Morgan St so can’t conclude much except they will throw it a lot.  Neb got carved up by NW in week 1 and played a slow down offense last week but still gave up 17 pts.  I don’t think this is a very good Neb def so Ga South should be able to score some ( at least above 20) considering there will be good pace to the game and they most likely will be down a lot and probably play against backups in sec half at some point.  If Neb gets up good they will rest players with Okl on deck. 

Neb Off vs Ga South Def –Ga South gave up 31 pts and 442 yds per game last year.  They return 5 on def and now will be on the field more with a change in offense.  They gave up 289 yds/game passing last year.  Neb was rusty last week (hangover and playing a FCS opp) and North Dakota ran clock and controlled the ball.  Even with that the total hit 55.  This is a night game and I believe that Neb will light this team up.  I think Frost will want them to look good and put up some pts to gain confidence and get the fan base excited for next week.  You should see tempo and a big day from Thompson.  I could see them put up over 50 in this one.  I thought about betting them but just don’t trust them so total only.      

Outlook – There should be a lot of possessions in this one and a lot of passing.  I can’t seen Neb not being over 40 and given their def they should give up some points.  The first half total would be solid as well to guard against Neb up big and running clock.  Neb does have the ability to score against a team like this so I expect a good performance by this offense and a lot of points.    

Prediction:  73 pts    

Keagan Johnson - Iowa’s best receiver is out Sat.  This means Iowa has their 3 projected starting receivers coming into the year out Saturday.  Leaving only Arland Bruce who had any catches coming into the year besides the tight ends.  

@CFBLMONSTER

 Yeah, that's not good. Iowa has to do something to score points. Talent void makes that much harder. With you here on ISU. Have ISU ML with the under in a Parlay with UCF ML as well. BOL!

3* West Va -13 – WV is coming off a tough loss to a very good Pitt team.  I think the 2 extra days will help them as that is a tough one to get over.  I think since they lost and will be at home in a conference game that they will be focused. Kansas is coming off an expected win against a Tenn Tech team that was 3-8 last year so nothing can be taken from that game.    Kansas will be improved and might be a good play on later in year but I don’t think that is this game. 

WV Offense vs Kansas Def – I underestimated the impact of both Daniels at QB and Harrell at coordinator.  I think last years team was limited by the QB.  Daniels is an excellent QB and one of the better ones in college.  I don’t think many QB’s could have played like he did last week with constant pressure from a tremendous Pitt def line.  The off line will be better as Kansas can’t apply near the pressure of Pitt (only 15 sacks last year).  Harrell also showed something with his play calling as I thought he outcoached Pitt and WV outplayed them the last 25 minutes.  WV looks like they have a good back in Donaldson (125 yds against a team that never gets run on) to compliment the passing game.  Kansas gave up 42 pts and 487 yds per game last year.  They will be improved and got some impactful transfers.  I think this will be a very good offense this year for WV and Daniels should have a good day. 

WV Def vs Kansas Off – WV held up very well at the line of scrimmage last week against a very good Pitt off line.  They held Pitt under 100 yds rushing and recorded 5 sacks.  Stills was dominant at the line of scrimmage.  They are facing a team that scored 20 pts and 324 yds per game last year.  Kansas likes to run the ball and WV showed they can defend the run well.  They will most likely be without Charles Woods and McCormick will miss the first half.  This is a little concerning but Kansas isn’t a great passing team as they threw for under 200 yds per game last year.  I think WV will hold up well enough in this one against an improved Kansas team    

Outlook – Kansas was competitive the last 3 games at the end of last year and will be improved.  This is a tough task going into Morgantown for a night game against a team that will be ready to move past the Pitt loss.  I expect Daniels to have a big day and really have a big season this year.  I could see Kansas hanging around some in this game but WV should be able to take control in the second half and get a convincing win.      

Prediction:  WV by 18     

2* Florida -4.5 – This line has gone up since I posted so it is most likely 5.5 or 6 in the books now.  Florida looked really good last week in an impressive win against a very good Utah team.  Richardson was extremely impressive and should have a big year.  KY won 37-13 but the score is a little misleading as it was close at half and they only gained 353 yds (50 rushing) against a solid MAC team. 

Florida Offense vs KY Def – Florida ran for 283 yds last week against a Utah team that always defends the run well.  Richardson showed he is special and can create plays.  KY always has a good def and returns 5 starters.  They lost a second round draft pick from the def line but still are solid in the front seven.  Richardson showed he can pass when needed as he was 17-24 for 168 yds.  Last year Florida ran for 171 yds against KY and I think they will be able to run the ball in this one.  KY will hold up ok on this side of the ball but Florida will still get some pts with Richardson’s ability to make plays. 

KY Off vs Florida Def – Last year KY won this game but only gained 224 yds.  KY normally has an excellent running game but this year they lost 3 starters on the off line (one AA and one 1st team SEC) and also have Rodriguez out.  Levis is a good QB but this year he is without Robinson who was exceptional last year (104 catches for 1334 yds).  KY never has that type of player at receiver so his loss is big.  KY rushed the ball 26 times for 50 yds last week against a MAC team.  They also gave up 4 sacks.  I thought they would take a little step back this year and the performance last week is concerning.  I think they will be better on the off line but this is a tough environment to go into off a struggling performance.   

Outlook – I don’t see a letdown for Florida as this is only game 2 and is the conference opener against a good team that beat them last year.  KY has some off field issues and its been reported that a few other plays will be receiving multiple game suspensions.  With the distractions and losses from last year I think this will be a tough game for them against a confident Florida team.  My biggest concern is the weather – I think heavy rain would make this tougher for Florida as KY is usually more physical and Levis is a load at QB.      Keep an eye on the forecast as that might make the under worth a look.  I think Florida does continue the moment and gets this win. 

Prediction:  Florida by 10    

Below is the final summary.  I added some alt lines – I am not a believer in buying pts in college but going the other way for odds.  A lot of college games will end up more than 6 pts away from the spread.  Hopefully the info is helpful.  I wish everyone luck this weekend. 

5* - Kansas St -8 (could get 7.5 now in most books)

4* - Pitt +7 (7 is probably gone – 6 or 6.5 now)

4* - Iowa TT Under 22.5 (this dropped to 21.5)

3* - Duke +10

3* - Ga South – Neb Over 59.5 (now up around 62.5 or 63)

3* - West Va -13 (probably 13.5 now)

2 * - Florida -4.5  (probably 6 everywhere)

2* - Iowa St – Iowa Under 41.5 (40.5 most places now)

2* - Iowa St +4 (Wynn still has this line). 

Alt Lines – I like to do this on some games.  DK and BetRivers usually have the better odds.  FD is the worst on the alt lines. 

1.5* Kansas St -13.5 +170 (DK has these odds)

1* Pitt ML +196 (Caesars has best odds now I see)

0.5* WV -17.5 +140 (DK has these odds)

0.5* Iowa St – 2 +185 (DK has these odds)

Alt Line Parlays

0.3* - Kan St -13.5, Pitt ML (plus 683)

0.1* - Kan St -13.5, Pitt ML, WV -17.5 (plus 2131)

0.1* - Kan St -13.5, Pitt ML, WV -17.5, Iowa St -2 (plus 5367)

Example on amounts – for every 500 I bet on K St I would bet 150 on the alt line.  For the parlays – the 2 teamer would be 60 bucks – others would be 10 bucks if $100 is a unit. 

With you on Kansas State...It is also my #1 play for week 2...I think AM is going to light up that Mizzou secondary...and DV will finish them off...The Kansas State D will play lights out...KSU will convey that they are indeed a Big 12 contender...Good Luck on this and your other picks! 

@LonghornHoosier

 Thanks - I think so to as I put a good bet on them to win big 12 and also to win 10 games.  I think they will surprise Missouri early in this one with some tempo and more passing than expected.  Good luck to you as well 

Appreciate the write ups!

I will disagree with you only on one -- I think Tennessee rolls Pitt big time on saturday.

Kenny Pickett and Addison wont be there to keep race with the Vols offense like last year. And like you said, Hooker only played half that game.

This will be a boat race for Vols 42-24