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Week 2 Picks + Write Ups

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Posted: #26
McGuire, keep up the good work.  Providing winning picks with insightful reasoning is as solid as it gets.


 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Next pick (sorry found it and couldn't resist posting this late)

Texas A&M -30 ... 1 unit

Power ratings: Ball State (102nd) at Texas A&M (15th) = projected spread of -28 

(And I think I am overrating Ball St...read below)

Let's start out talking about Ball State - because this is a Ball State fade more than anything. 

They played VMI last week and won 48-36. Score was 20-10 at the half, and 34-17 at end of 3Q...so not exactly ever a blowout. VMI briefing: VMI hasn't had a .500 win percentage since 2003...went 2-10 last year with wins over Davidson (3-9 in 2014)  and Furman (1-11 in 2014). Translation: VMI isn't that good. 

Ball State gave up 444 yards passing, 9.1 ypa, 3 tds, 0 ints to VMI. VMI #1 RB Brice Tucker 5.8 yards/clip. Gave up 42% 3rd dwon % and 3/4 on 4th down. Outgained VMI by 20 yards (567-547...or 3.7% more total yards)

Bottom line is Ball State's defense is atrocious - and I am likely overrating them in my power ratings. 

Texas A&M was a 3 unit play last week vs. Arizona State and I think they will roll this week vs. Ball State again. 

Texas A&M is an improved defensive unit with playmakers for days (freshman Chrisitan Kirk - 6 catches for 106 yards, 1 TD vs. Ariz State).  Held QB Bercovici to 4.8 ypa and ASU RBs to 3.5 yards/carry. Also 28% def. 3rd down. Not saying ASU are world beaters on offense but these are much better #s than last season. Also gained 46% more yards than ASU in W1. 

Golden nugget: Ball State has two offensive linemen that are 6'1 (left guard and center). This means batted balls for TXAM DL and a length advantage up front to get off blocks and manhandle. 

A&M faces Nevada in Week 3 so no look-a-head here. 

I like Texas A&M for the 1 unit. Massive size, speed advantage here. The only counter criticism is that they take this game for granted after a big win vs. Arizona State but I'm not buying it. Sumlin and Chavis are great coaches and I think Ball State falls behind and rolls over like a dog in the mud. Expect massive offensive #s for A&M here. I mean if soph Kyle Allen throws for 7.6 ypa vs. a good ASU defense, what is he going to do to Ball State? I'm expecting 10-14 ypa in this game. 


 Like the Over 47 Team Total A/M !! Thoughts ?/ Good luck TW !!
 
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Posted: #28
McGuire,

I stand corrected in regards to the A&M/ASU game.

You were right, I was wrong.
You're the best, I'm the worse.
You're good looking, I'm not attractive.

Jk....llittle Sandler humor.

Nice write up on Oregon/Sparty.
But do you really think thr public in on Oregon??? All I've seen in Sparty love and the number climbs in favor of them.
 
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Posted: #29
I appreciate your time and effort in putting these together, thanks alot for sharing.

G/L
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Next pick (sorry found it and couldn't resist posting this late)

Texas A&M -30 ... 1 unit

Power ratings: Ball State (102nd) at Texas A&M (15th) = projected spread of -28 

(And I think I am overrating Ball St...read below)

Let's start out talking about Ball State - because this is a Ball State fade more than anything. 

They played VMI last week and won 48-36. Score was 20-10 at the half, and 34-17 at end of 3Q...so not exactly ever a blowout. VMI briefing: VMI hasn't had a .500 win percentage since 2003...went 2-10 last year with wins over Davidson (3-9 in 2014)  and Furman (1-11 in 2014). Translation: VMI isn't that good. 

Ball State gave up 444 yards passing, 9.1 ypa, 3 tds, 0 ints to VMI. VMI #1 RB Brice Tucker 5.8 yards/clip. Gave up 42% 3rd dwon % and 3/4 on 4th down. Outgained VMI by 20 yards (567-547...or 3.7% more total yards)

Bottom line is Ball State's defense is atrocious - and I am likely overrating them in my power ratings. 

Texas A&M was a 3 unit play last week vs. Arizona State and I think they will roll this week vs. Ball State again. 

Texas A&M is an improved defensive unit with playmakers for days (freshman Chrisitan Kirk - 6 catches for 106 yards, 1 TD vs. Ariz State).  Held QB Bercovici to 4.8 ypa and ASU RBs to 3.5 yards/carry. Also 28% def. 3rd down. Not saying ASU are world beaters on offense but these are much better #s than last season. Also gained 46% more yards than ASU in W1. 

Golden nugget: Ball State has two offensive linemen that are 6'1 (left guard and center). This means batted balls for TXAM DL and a length advantage up front to get off blocks and manhandle. 

A&M faces Nevada in Week 3 so no look-a-head here. 

I like Texas A&M for the 1 unit. Massive size, speed advantage here. The only counter criticism is that they take this game for granted after a big win vs. Arizona State but I'm not buying it. Sumlin and Chavis are great coaches and I think Ball State falls behind and rolls over like a dog in the mud. Expect massive offensive #s for A&M here. I mean if soph Kyle Allen throws for 7.6 ypa vs. a good ASU defense, what is he going to do to Ball State? I'm expecting 10-14 ypa in this game. 



Great write up. Thanks for putting me onto this game. The Aggies love to blow out inferior opponents.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by GoGoplata123:

 
Nice write up on Oregon/Sparty.
But do you really think thr public in on Oregon??? All I've seen in Sparty love and the number climbs in favor of them.

40% of the money is on Oregon (sportsinsights.com).I think that is way more than it should be. Public is analyzing the logos here not the personnel. 
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

 Like the Over 47 Team Total A/M !! Thoughts ?/ Good luck TW !!

It's not a terrible play...but I like the -30 spread (29.5 if you can find it) more. Texas A&M's defense is good enough to be trusted here. I think the -30 is just the safer play. Just my .02
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:


I discussed my losses and my Week 1 picks are posted in the forum with results. Maybe you should find that thread. And I don't shy away from my results they are documented in the forum - and I admitted I overrated Kentucky in the OP here. 

Not everyone can pick games as well as you can (seeing as this was your first post)  - so I apologize. 

McGuire, you are doing a great job picking games .... I never questioned that. 

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by BulletBob15:

McGuire, you are doing a great job picking games .... I never questioned that. 


It was only one week. Let's see where I am in a month 
 
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Posted: #35
Next pick: 

SMU -3 (1st Half play) ... 1 unit

Power ratings: North Texas (111th) at SMU (115th) = projected spread of -2

I think my powers are off here for the record. Matt Davis was outstanding vs. Baylor in the opening game. 7.2 ypa, 2 tds, 2 ints as well (breaking news: baylor has a defense) and 116 yards rushing. 

North Texas returns one starter on the OL. The other 4 starters have a total of 2 career starts on their belts. North Texas also lost 3 of top 4 DBs from last year's team. #1 LB Derek Akunne also gone (14% of team tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 2 PBU, 3 FF...huge leadership to replace there). 

QB Andrew McNulty isn't a world beater. 6.4 ypa last season 6 TD/7 INTs. I expect his sack rate to go up as well with a new OL. 

I think there is some advantage here to a very inexperienced North Texas Team going on the road in the first half. Love that SMU got their tails kicked in last week so they will be hungry. Everyone made a big deal about Chad Morris last week - he can't outcoach Art Briles with worse players...but he can outcoach North Texas with better players. 

1 unit play. 
 
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Posted: #36
I'll move SMU up in my powers if they get a cover here. Otherwise, I'm not going to give them a bump just for Week 2. 
 
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Posted: #37
I'm loving your analysis on the games. Keep them coming.... 
 
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Posted: #38
With you on Cal and MSU, and leaning wku tomorrow night for action. Hoping to get wku ML above even money, everyone loves LA Tech but I think it'll be a close game.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by wankerjake:

With you on Cal and MSU, and leaning wku tomorrow night for action. Hoping to get wku ML above even money, everyone loves LA Tech but I think it'll be a close game.


I don't understand why everyone likes LA Tech so much. Because they destroyed Southern and WKU didn't light up scoreboard vs. an SEC defense? Will be interesting
 
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Posted: #40
Good luck man!
 
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Posted: #41
Agree, not sure why the love for LA Tech. Probably a trap game and WKU wins. But we will see.
Devinne
 
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Posted: #42
Kansas State at Texas-San Antonio +17 ... 3 units
Texas-San Antonio +600 ML ... 1 unit

Power ratings: Kansas State (46th) at Texas San-Antonio (90th) = projected spread of +8

If you analyze the logos, you'll probably say "Kansas State is always a traditional power in the Big 12. They will route UTSA here."

Last week, UTSA might have been the Cover of Week 1. Going into Arizona (#25 on my powers) they were a 32.5 point dog. Nobody gave them a chance because they returned 5 starters from last year's team. 

QB Blake Bogenschultz: 7.7 ypa, 332 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT. UTSA gained 3.9 yards/clip on the ground. UTSA held super soph QB Anu Soloman to 6.4 ypa. Held Arizona to 4.3 yards/clip on the ground. UTSA outgained Arizona by 133 total yards. UTSA was 8/19 on 3rd down. 

After reading all that - you might believe UTSA might be BETTER than Arizona...not a 32.5 point dog despite the final score (and maybe they are!). Conservatively, I bumped them about 20 spots in my power ratings - but they could keep going up and could be underrated. 

Kansas State in Week 1 was very unimpressive vs. FCS South Dakota. KSU QB Joe Hubener threw for 50% completions, 147 total passing yards...against an FCS team. Translation = KSU doesn't have a QB. Hubener is the backup, but Jesse Ertz is out indefinitely with an injured knee and "likely to miss the rest of the season" -KansasCity.com

Kansas State outgained USD by 66 total yards (25% more yards). USD was 8/18 on 3rd down. KSU only 5/12 on 3rd down. 

Starting SS and leader of the DBs Dante Barnett (leading tackler last year, 8 PBUs, 3 INTs) is quesitonable for Saturday's game. I'll take that as a bonus when I'm capping but not banking on it. Don't need it - but it's nice if he doesn't play. 

KSU team briefing: Lost a ton from last year's team. Nickle Randall Evans was drafted in 6th round. Star QB Jake Waters is gone (3500 yards, 22 tds, 7 ints). WR Tyler Lockett was a 3rd round pick at #69 overall- he's gone.  #2 WR Curry Sexton (1,059 yards) is also gone. These two WRs averaged 10.1 yards/target. The next two WRs that return: 4.2 and 8.4 yards/target. Kansas State also lost its top 2 LBers in Jonathan Truman (15% of team tackles with 103.5, 4.5 TFLs) and Dakorey Johnson (9 TFLs). 

While Bill Snyder is a great coach and gets results, I think this is the year that his mediocre recruiting catches up to him. Kansas State does not have a size or speed advantage over UTSA. As a handicapper, this game has double digit underdog upset potential written all over it. KSU lost a ton of talent in losing QB Waters, WR Lockett, WR Sexton, top 2 LBers, #1 DE (Mueller), with their best DB being questionable for the game in SS Barnett. To boot, UTSA played outstanding vs. a good Arizona team and Kansas State was unimpressive vs. South Dakota (went 2-10 in 2014 and 4-8 in 2013). 

After I did all this research, I realize I was also giving credit for team logos in my power ratings. Kansas State should really be around 70-80 in my powers...they just don't have the personnel to be that great. Even if I was being conservative here, I'd say Kansas State should be a 3 point favorite or so...but definitely nothing more than 6 points. 17 points is insane and definitely based off on last year's stats. Everybody is giving UTSA crap for what they lost from last year's team...but what about Kansas State????

Taking UTSA +17 for 3 units. I'm also going to put in a patented CRAZY MAN MONEYLINE PICK INSPIRED BY TRAIN69 1 unit on UTSA +600. 


 
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Posted: #43
Next write-up

Oklahoma at Tennessee +1 ... 0 units (as of now)

Power ratings: Oklahoma (#21) at Tennessee (#17) = projected spread of UT -5. 

Last week, we had UT for 1 unit vs. Bowling Green and they covered. Don't get me wrong, BG is a prolific offensive team - but I expected mroe from the Vols. QB Matt Johnson threw for 424 yards and 0 ints. The top 2 RBs for BG combined for 4.6 yards/carry. That's just not good enough in my opinion for Tennessee and I dropped them 5 spots in my powers. I wanted to see them put up 50+ points on offense (check) and limit BG's offense. 1 for 2. 

What did these teams lose in the NFL Draft: Oklahoma got 4 drafted in top 120 (DT, DE, OT, TE). Tennessee didn't get one player drafted. Both teams recruit on an elite level so replacing a draft pick isn't a big deal...but it just shows how much UT has returning. 

Last week, OU covered as a 31 pt fave vs. Akron. However, there is cause for concern - and if you want to chalk this up to "This is Week 1 rust" I totally respect that logic - but it has to be mentioned...Oklahoma was only 4/13 on 3rd down. Oklahoma only rushed for 3.0 yards/carry. Maybe I'm being nitpicky - but that kinda matters. Maybe Akron's defense is better than what we are giving them credit for ... it's possible.

On the flip side, UT was 9/16 on 3rd down (BG is worse than Akron on D to be fair)... AND despite giving up 557 total yards to BG, UT held them to 4/18 on 3rd down. BG is a great offensive team but that 4/18 is a key stat so maybe some hidden hope here for the Vols? (Interesting footnote: It is worth nothing - BG ranked #91 nationally in 3rd down % on offense...one has to wonder if their play calling is too predictable on 3rd down and defensive coordinators know what is coming...not good enough for an elite offense like that...at least for me)

Also, you kinda gotta give UT a little edge here. Bowling Green is Oklahoma Lite. They play a similar style and have similar quarterbacks...it is a good warm up game. Then again, if they gave up 557 yards to BG....

UT returns the BULK of their defense, WR corps, OL, and front 7 from last year. Combine this with #1 RB Jalen Hurd and starting QB Josh Dobbs...that's why I rated them #12 overall to start the year. Problem is they have to play like a potential SEC East Champ and I didn't see that vs. BG. 

Oklahoma has two S-T-U-D-S at RB in Samaje Perine (5'11, 237) and Alex Ross (6'1, 220). Both players averaged over 6.5 yards/clip last year. Their top 3 WRs return. It looks like they have upgraded at QB in TxTech transfer Baker Mayfield. However, Oklahoma lost a ton from their OL from last year's team. They lost 3 All-Big 12 OL and only return 2 starters. Lost top 2 DL that I mentioned were drafted...and when I look over their recruiting - they aren't loaded with 4 and 5 star players in the trenches...most of their highly recruiters players are RS Fresh and true Fresh. 

Oklahoma - it is worth mentioning - is pretty small in their front seven. Their 3 down linemen are 283, 274, and 294. Not tiny but you'd expect bigger. At LB they weigh 223, 236, 242, and 229 - however they are highly experienced and return their top 4 LBers. I gotta give a slight size advantage here to the Tennessee offense. 

It's worth mentioning that Oklahoma had the #5 defense yards/play in the Big 12 (conf games only).

 Injuries: Tenn starting FS LaDarrell McNeil is out indefinitely with a neck injury. The Vols also have some depth players still out with injuries but nothing they can't replace. 

Verdict: Still going to wait for positive line movement in favor of Tennessee. This is the rare college game where it is all about who wins in the trenches since the spread offense and wide splits have neutralized a lot of this. I think Tennessee has an edge here...I also think Tennessee has an edge when it comes to overall experience returning. Oklahoma lost their premier DL and OL players from last year - there is no way around that. You can't lose elite players in the trenches and replace them this quickly. They lost too many. 

 
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Posted: #44
By the way - my footnote on the Bowling Green #91 ranking on 3rd down% was their national ranking from 2014 not 2015. 
 
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Posted: #45
Didn't you lose the Auburn pick from week 1?





 
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Posted: #46
Next pick: 

Oregon State at Michigan (-16.5) ... 3 units

Power ratings: Oregon State (82nd) at Michigan (23rd) = projected spread of -19

Let's talk about last week for both teams: 

Oregon State was a 27.5 pt fave vs. Weber St last week...score was 6-0 at the half, 13-7 at end of 4Q, and they scored 13 points in the 4Q. Oregon State only 6/1y on 3rd down (Weber State was 0/13 on 3rd down...they are just awful)...Oregon State was 87th in def yards/play last year and 98th in scoring D. More on them later. 

Let's talk about Oregon State's offense for a minute: 

Starting QB Seth Collins was 10/18 for 92 yards (that is 5.1 ypa vs. FCS Weber State...wow). However, Collins also rushed for 152 yards (his rushing yards accounted for 39% of their total offense). Michigan's D is built to stop the run more than anything so Oregon State has a bad personnel mismatch offensively. 

Who is Collins? He's a dual threat true freshman QB. He was a 2-star recruit only offered by Oregon State, Colorado State, and San Jose State. His first FBS game is in the Big House....there is blood in the water and the Wolverines know it. For the record, Oregon State coaches say RS Fresh Marcus McMaryion will also play...but he got beat by a 2-star true fresh so that's all you need to know imo. McMaryion was 2/4 for 18 yards and 1 INT vs. Weber State....kinda funny that you throw 4 balls against Weber State and one of them is an INT. That's just sad. 

From OregonLive.com's practice report: "...That will be quite the challenge for an offensive line that surprisingly sputtered against Weber State, getting flagged for five holding penalties and struggling to open holes for the running backs early on."

If you have to hold Weber State to get an edge, and you struggle to run block against Weber State...what is Michigan's DL going to do in this game? 

Last week, Michigan wasn't that bad against Utah. They were a 4.5/5 point dog and played well. Problem was Rudock threw 3 INTs and that was the difference in the game. Statistically, Utah and Michigan look identical when you look at the team stats in this game...the difference being the -2 turnover differential for UM (one of those INTs was a pick 6 for Utah...huge 7 points that determined the game). Travis Wilson was limited to 53 rush yards on 12 carries...so UM knows how to stop a mobile QB. Utah's longest play from scrimmage was 20 yards...so good job by the Michigan defense. 

Oregon State briefing: Lost their top 3 DL from last year. Lost starting LB corps from last year. Lost top 3 of top 4 DBs from last year. 

Oregon state is very very very young on defense. They don't have anything but a true freshman QB that can run a little (and UM has the speed and coaching on defense to neutralize him). On the flip side, here is the level of age on the UM OL from LT to RT: Soph - Sr - RS Sr - Sr - Sr. A total of 76 starts between them. It is important to note the 2-deep for Michgian on both sides of the football is LOADED with juniors and seniors. Want to know why I have them #23 on my power ratings? That's a big reason why. 

The power ratings say this spread should be -19. I would personally adjust this line and say it should be -24. Oregon State is crap. Michigan just lost a big game on the road and are going to focus for this game. 

I still think there is value here in taking Michigan. I'm in for 3 units at -16.5. 

And now, for the best school song in the world (nope I'm not a UM fan): 

 
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Posted: #47
Hail! to the victors valiant
Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes
Hail! Hail! to Michigan
the leaders and best
Hail! to the victors valiant
Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes
Hail! Hail! to Michigan,
the champions of the West!

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:

Didn't you lose the Auburn pick from week 1?


No I changed it from Auburn -10 to the 58.5 under.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=102151433&page=1
 
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Posted: #49
I honestly think this is going to be like a 40-6 blowout win for Michigan. 

My advice on this is to simply wait till gameday and play an adjusted spread. If you can get an adjusted spread at something like -20...I'm very confident Michigan will cover this. Oregon State will simply struggle to move the chains all game long, and they don't have the defense that can get off the field against this offensive line. 

Again, that's a big gamble, but I think this game could be a blowout. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

I honestly think this is going to be like a 40-6 blowout win for Michigan. 

My advice on this is to simply wait till gameday and play an adjusted spread. If you can get an adjusted spread at something like -20...I'm very confident Michigan will cover this. Oregon State will simply struggle to move the chains all game long, and they don't have the defense that can get off the field against this offensive line. 

Again, that's a big gamble, but I think this game could be a blowout. 

Then again - if you wait you will obviously lose value because this spread is only going to continue to go up. There is absolutely no reason to bet on Oregon State here. 
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