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Week 2 Picks + Write Ups

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MEGALOCKS

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2003

Posts: 18138

Posted: Sep. 11, 2015 - 9:27 PM ET #126

Did a lot of reading on that Toledo "rainout" think you are on the right track. GL.

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McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 11, 2015 - 9:36 PM ET #127

Quote Originally Posted by appleton40:

I appreciate the time and effort you put into this, i am primarily a first quarter and first half bettor, I am loving the Wolverines to have a big first half tomorrow and i am loving the -7.5 your thoughts would be greatly appreciated, best of luck all season long

Love pretty much all Michigan bets...see no reason to not fade Oregon State and not love Michigan coming off the road loss. Great personnel mismatch...I think their 2nd string is good enough in this game to continue to build a lead vs. Oregon State. I'd be shocked if Oregon State kept this within 7 points in the 1H...but I'd rather play it safe with the full game spread.

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appleton40

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2014

Posts: 384

Posted: Sep. 11, 2015 - 9:57 PM ET #128

Thanks for the input

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McGuire87

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 557

Posted: Sep. 11, 2015 - 9:58 PM ET #129

Next pick:

Toledo at Arkansas (-21.5) ... 4 unit Pick of the Week

Power ratings: Toledo (64th) at Arkansas (17th) = projected spread of -17

*Game is on neutral field in Little Rock not Fayetteville for some reason...but I still gave Ark a 3 pt home field advantage built into spread.

Toledo is not the same team as last year...not even close (at least for W2 vs. Pig Suey). Toledo lost their entire starting OL from last year. Star #1 RB Kareem Hunt is out with a suspension. #2 RB Terry Swanson is banged up and questionable. Starting DE Allen Covington also out with a suspension (and they need him for their run defense. Starting MLB Murdock is questionable. Starting CB Jordan Martin is out. 2nd string CB Mathis is questionable.

That's not the same team or anything close to it. On top of that - I think the wrong QB is starting. Sophomore Logan Woodside was outstanding last year - 7.6 ypa, 19 TDs, 8 ints, 62.5%. Ely wasn't that great last week in the 1H from the stats I looked at vs. Stony Brook.

This game is going to be a bloodbath. Toledo weighs 265 - 285 (NG) - 305 on the DL. None of the LBers are above 235 pounds. Very small in front 7 and since Arkansas has one of the best run blocking OLs in the nation I think they will take advantage.

Now let's talk about how these teams did LY ATS. Arkansas was 10-3 ATS last year including 4-0 in non-conf games (including spreads of -41.5, -13.5, and -24.5). On the other hand, Toledo was very mediocre ATS. 5-7-1 ATS record with covers over Arkansas State, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois (by 0.5 points), Central Michigan, and New Hampshire. Keep in mind Kareem Hunt played in all but 3 games last year...Toledo went 1-2 ATS without Hunt. The best teams Toledo played last year were Missouri (lost by 25) and at Cincinnati (lost by 24). I'm not big on previous seasons ATS records...but it does show that Toledo hardly played teams with class and Arkansas was severely undervalued by the market. They are being undervalued again...greatly.

For the record, my power ratings did not take into account any of the suspensions or injuries. I wasn't looking at Toledo LW because I don't bet on FCS games so I didn't read up too much on Toledo. But if I had to handicap where they would be based on the team they will field on Saturday - I would rank them somewhere around #90 overall...which would create a power ratings spread of -24.

This looks like a 30+ point blowout for Arkansas. When you consider how Toledo is absolutely decimated with injuries and suspensions.

Considering how mediocre Toledo was LW vs. Stony Brook I really like Arkansas here. I don't understand why the public hasn't pounded Arkansas. Toledo is going to be rusty after only playing 1 half of football. Arkansas doesn't get into their SEC schedule until Sept. 26...they will be focused here. Considering what Toledo doesn't have in terms of personnel losses for Saturday I can't believe this line has only moved +0.5 points since it opened. For some reason the public acts like Arkansas doesn't exist.

Arkansas BIG...4 unit play and my pick of the week.