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Week 2 Picks + Write Ups

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Posted: #101
More than this season? Why doesn't covers let us edit our posts? Sorry guys ... meant more than this "one"
 
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Posted: #102
Good info for tonight's games bro! I was feeling the same way...leaning FAU
 
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Posted: #103
Nice call on the Driskel fade!  I thought he played pretty well actually.  Think it was an matter of WKU offense just being a little better.  What's up with these last second garbage TD's?  Cost me in the Pats game, and made this one way closer than it needed to be!  I never thought after WKU recovered the onside kick they would actually need to get points to win lol.
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by BulletBob15:

Nice call on the Driskel fade!  I thought he played pretty well actually.  Think it was an matter of WKU offense just being a little better.  What's up with these last second garbage TD's?  Cost me in the Pats game, and made this one way closer than it needed to be!  I never thought after WKU recovered the onside kick they would actually need to get points to win lol.

Driskel was OK. His athleticism is more noticeable now that he isn't in the SEC...gets more yards on the ground. He made some really really bad passes but he hit a lot of the easy short passes...and the WKU defense while better than last year is still slow. 

I wouldn't call them garbage TOs...LA Tech gradually got back in the game once WKU kept trying to run the football with their #1 RB out. Once WKU went back to the passing game they were rolling on offense.

Adjusted my powers and WKU only 3 spots ahead  for +0.75 points...not much separates the teams. 
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

More than this season? Why doesn't covers let us edit our posts? Sorry guys ... meant more than this "one"

Maybe because you can edit your posts you can edit your picks. Like I say: pick Alabama. They lose, and I edit the post where I say 'Pick Alabama'.

Love your write ups and insights. BOL!
 
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Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:


Don't take this the wrong way because I'm just saying this to help you be a better capper. 

You're analyzing the logos. Basically, you have bad instincts about California (the team, the school, etc.) ... maybe you lost some bets with them last year - maybe you just think they suck. 

Another thing I wanted to point out was you are dealing with extremes - "they always play over their head vs. Pac 12" - thats an extreme. 

Let's deal with reality - Cal went 7-5 ATS last season...including 6-4 vs. the Pac 12...so they are actually were very consistent last year ATS  in conference vs. OOC. 

I'm not trying to be a jerk - I'm just saying you would make more $$$$ if you didn't analyze logos and deal in extremes. You'd be more comfortable with a team like Cal (and betting against SDSU) if you knew the players. Gotta become familiar with the personnel and what they did last year...gotta look at the stats. The more info you look at the better a capper you will be. 

But if you just say "My gut tells me not to bet on Cal" - then your gut might be preventing you from learning the truth and making $. Now, I am not saying my pick this week on Cal is a lock. None of them are. I'm just trying to help you become a better handicapper. 

It's not just Cal - I'm talking about other teams too. We form these biases against and for teams because we are human. It's natural...but the best cappers don't have biases against any teams. Great cappers look at numbers, know the players, and ignore the logos. 

thanks Bro for that feedback is truly appreciated. 
 
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Posted: #107
I'm on Miami 1st half and Utah 1st half.. I think MiA blows FAU out the more I look at it..

We'll see nothing major on it
 
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Posted: #108
I wonder why the Kansas St game line is not up on Bovada...smh
 
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Posted: #109
Also the line for Michigan is -14 now...Thoughts? Love this thread man! good job!
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by AddictedNinja:

Also the line for Michigan is -14 now...Thoughts? Love this thread man! good job!

I'm seeing 14.5 with some 15's out there...pound pound pound Michigan. If I see -14 I'm gonna double down. There is no reason anyone should put money on Oregon State - they are pitiful. 
 
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Posted: #111
WOW....Read all 5 pages of this thread.  I really think this is the GOLD standard of information.  

Their's only a hand full of guys in Covers that equal this much in depth information, and non confrontational discourse.  

WELL DONE....won't mis many of Mr. Mc Guires's threads this season.
 
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Posted: #112
Next pick: 

Houston +13.5 at Louisville ... 1 unit

Power ratings: Houston (73rd) at Louisville (24th) = -16

Some psychology and injury play in here from my side - which is why I am going against my power ratings if you were curious. 

Louisville is MAJORLY banged up at receiver...and remember they lost their entire WR corps from last year. So the few talented guys they do have are all out or banged up. #1 WR James Quick is doubtful for Saturday. UAB Transfer WR Jamari Staples also doubtful. JUCO TE Cole Hikutini is questionable. Two other backup WRs are also questionable. The only WR threat that UL has is true fresh 6'6 WR Devante Peete (3 catches vs. Auburn...one 35 yd reception). 

Houston returns their entire starting set of DBs - and UL doesn't have a passing QB worth mentioning. True fresh QB Lamar Jackson is starting - he was 9/20 for 100 yards passing vs. Auburn. He's a dual threat runner who is very fast - but Houston knows UL is banged up at WR so I expect them to do a fairly decent job containing Jackson after watching the tape from Auburn. 

The reality is Auburn would have covered last week if Johnson didn't throw 3 interceptions. The score was 24-10 AU entering the 4Q and Auburn simply blew the cover. 

I expect QB Greg Ward (7.6 ypa last year as a soph) to play better vs. UL's defense. Houston is also inexperinced at WR and they lost 3 starters on OL.

LW Houston gave up 264 yards receiving to one player (TN Tech's Brock McCoin). Gave up a 71 yard TD catch early in 2Q. Gave up a 47 yard pass to McCoin in 4Q on 3rd down (score 45-10 a the time...so backups likely in game). Also gave up a 77 yard catch to McCoin in garbage time on 3rd & 5 (with 0:15 left in game). Other than those 3 plays Houston's D was great (TTech horrible though). Those plays don't concern me for Houston...possibly looking ahead to UL a little too. 

Gotta get to the psychology of this game. Houston is sandwiched between Auburn and Clemson on the UL schedule. UL plays Clemson on ESPN next Thursday night in their ACC season opener. Lots of look-a-head here for UL. 

I expect UL to play down to the level of competition this week. They don't have a passing game so if Houston can manage around 17-20 points offensively I expect a cover. 

Also I think the under of 54 is a good bet if you are a totals player. UL has no passing game to speak of and Houston is dynamite at DB...I think Houston should have decent success on 3rd down D - especially considering they know that UL has to run the ball and won't want to pass. If Houston's DC is smart he'll play his safeties closer to the LOS in this game and use a lot of run blitzes...but we'll see. 

1 unit pick

 
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Posted: #113
@Ninja...maybe some Bovada bookmakers read my week 2 picks???? 

I still think the play is the adjusted spread of -20 for Michigan...and after losing lat week I honestly think getting it up to -22.5 for a better payday is a decent gamble. Oregon State has no offense + Michigan coming off road loss + Oregon State very inexpereinced on D = blowout. 

it's the kind of game I would suggest people get greedy with. I'd rather have Michigan at -22.5 for +250 than Michigan -14.5 for -110...but that's just me. It's not an official pick - just official advice
 
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Posted: #114
https://soundcloud.com/ksucatzone/ep-003-should-k-state-football-be-on-upset-alert-this-weekend

Some great info and insight on this KSU podcast...skip to 18:00 for the game analysis vs. UTSA.  Even the KSU fans think UTSA will cover this week. Looks like I'm on the right side. Also mentioned how badly KSU has lost - 7 straight games in Domes...I am not big on trends especially ones that happen in previous season but it is an interesting tidbit (that I don't think weighs much in this game honestly). 

One guy predicts a 3 point KSU win and another KSU fan predicts a 3 pt UTSA win!!!!


 
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Posted: #115

Also, Michigans Rudock missed 3 or 4 td passes from over throws to go along with all the picks....They could have easily beat Utah 45-14 with a decent game from the Qb spot. UMs defense might pitch a shutout vs a woeful Beavers O....

 

McG

 
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Posted: #116
Next write-up: 

Tulane at Georgia Tech (-30) ... 0 units

Power ratings: Tulane (114th) at Georgia Tech (23rd) = projected spread of -27

Georgia Tech's defense was atrocious last season...but amazingly they went 10-3 ATS including 7-0 in last 7. 

The defense returns just about everybody so they can't be much worse. They lost pretty much their entire WR corps but in their triple option offense losing WRs isn't that big of a deal. They return 4 of 5 starters on OL and most of 2-deep - so an offense based mostly around sound blocking assignments and technique rather than talent - that's huge. QB Justin Thomas returns - 6.4 yards/carry last year but lost 5 fumbles. 

GA Tech's DL is really small...average 6'3, 237 at DE and 6'4 286 at DT. Much smaller than Duke's DL so I think Tulane should have more success running the football. Tulane only 1.1 yards/carry LW. Duke gained 4.2 yards/clip on 49 carries.  

This game is a pass for me. Number looks right...slightly leaning Georgia Tech -30 but the # isn't good enough...would rather have seen something like -26. 


 
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Posted: #117
 
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Posted: #118
Let's update the card for this week to give some cliff's notes...this card is probably final barring line movement: 

Michigan -16.5 ... 3 units
UTSA +17 ... 3 units
UTSA +600 ... 1 unit
SMU -3 1H ... 1 unit
FSU -27.5 ... 1 unit
ECU +20 ... 2 units
ECU/Florida under 54 ... 2 units
California -12 ... 2 units
Michigan State -3.5 ... 3 units
WKU +1 ... 1 unit ... 
Texas A&M -30 ... 1 unit
Houston +13.5 ... 1 unit

I'm also thinking about adding another unit onto TXA&M
 
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Posted: #119
Have the night off so I'm doing some super research...looking at Arkansas -21 right now. 

Toledo's W1 game vs. Stony Brook was cancelled at halftime. Toledo didn't score a TD until their 5th drive of the game. Failed to score a TD after Stony Brook on their 30 yard line. On 3rd and 5 SB25 yd line - SB had a holding penalty to extend the drive. Then a FG 4 plays later. Toledo also punts from opponents 33 yard line instead of kicking FG - no confidence in kicker (only 3/6 from 40+ LY). Then Toledo gets another INT and starts drive from opp 45 yd line. 

Damion Jones-Moore is the #1 R but very small at 5'7 190. 70 rushes on 5 carries vs. SB including one 37 yd run. One get these #s vs. Arkansas. 

Only last play of first half - QB Ely is intercepted on what seems like a hail mar play. 50% passing for 5 ypa in first half...not good. 

Gonna continue to look at personnel and make a decision here. Arkansas was really undervalued last year a great ATS team...considering how banged up Toledo is Arkansas seems like a decent play. 
 
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Posted: #120
MC,

Would you still take USTA at 16.5.  Also, is that 600 the ML?  Cause I cant fine a ML with the book I'm using...Thanks...C
 
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Posted: #121
nice thread  
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:

MC,

Would you still take USTA at 16.5.  Also, is that 600 the ML?  Cause I cant fine a ML with the book I'm using...Thanks...C

+600 was the ML play ... now it is at 500-550 in that range (I like the ML all the way down to +300 to be honest...I think UTSA wins this game between 33-50% of the time)...so there is still value to be extracted from the ML.

I'd take UTSA all the way down to +10 without blinking honestly. My powers have them at +8 - but that is with SS Dante Barnett healthy. If he doesn't play I think the talent between the teams is pretty much identical (and UTSA has the better QB ... and because QBs have so much value they actually might have a slight talent edge in relation to the spread). I honestly think this spread should be between -4.5 and -7 for Kansas State. To be fair they return most of their OL and DL - so they probably have an edge in the trenches - but UTSA held their own vs. Arizona. So to recap I think +16.5 is still an absolute bargain. I just don't think KSU has the class at QB or on their defense to justify a big spread. The game plan is pretty obvious - run the football. When the game plan is obvious I gotta give a Larry Coker defense at home vs. a Big 12 team some benefit of the doubt. The only edge I really see for Kansas State here is in the place kicking game...but that's about it. 

Read this - it is from the Kansas State SB nation preview on their OL: 

But KSU's line stats were really, really bad. Adjusting for opponent, the Wildcats were in the bottom 20 in both Adj. Line Yards and Adj. Sack Rate. Opponents made a ton of stops behind the line, and KSU converted a pretty poor number of its short-yardage opportunity. The stats were so bad that there's no way the line came away unscathed there. And if you watched the Auburn game, you saw the line getting completely manhandled by a line that was athletic but wasn't actually that effective in other games.

Even more confusing: KSU produced these line stats with two all-conference guys: four-year starting center B.J. Finney and three-year starting tackle Cody Whitehair. What's in store now that Finney's gone?

That KSU returns four linemen who have combined for 81 career starts isn't a bad thing. But with a new quarterback and receiving corps, the line is going to have to come up awfully big. Can it?

 
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Posted: #123
Let's recap how lucky Arizona was vs. UTSA: 

UTSA: 1st drive pick6 - 7 points for Zona
-missed 33 yard FG
-Zona with a fumble recovery for TD in 3rd qtr
-blocked 44 yard FG for Zona (UTSA seems like they can't be trusted on special teams

14 points of Zona's were gifts. UTSA missed out on what probably should have been another 6 points. 

UTSA was much closer to winning this game than people want to give them credit for. 
 
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Posted: #124
Score was 42-32...could just have easily of been 28-35 for a 32.5 underdog upset. 
 
 
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Posted: #125
I appreciate the time and effort you put into this, i am primarily a first quarter and first half bettor, I am loving the Wolverines to have a big first half tomorrow and i am loving the -7.5 your thoughts would be greatly appreciated, best of luck all season long
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