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WEEK 3 lines and leans..........

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Posted: #51
Hope u don't mind BA ...just a heads up

[WR] 09/10/2017 - Steven Sims Jr. injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. Ohio ( Ankle )... LEADING RECEIVER
 
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Posted: #52
Upside - Not sure where this stat came from -- but it is WRONG

ND .....BC 0-6 ATS as Home Dog....see 2015 game
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by SharpShooter8:

Upside - Not sure where this stat came from -- but it is WRONG

ND .....BC 0-6 ATS as Home Dog....see 2015 game


From Sportsdatabase.com ...

 
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Posted: #54
trend I like is......BC has covered 8/10 vs Irish.............
  

CAN'T LOSE....ML parlay
  * 2-0 seems like ha

9/16/2017 3:30 PM College Football 134 Minnesota U* -340  vs Middle Tennessee State
9/16/2017 3:00 PM College Football 146 Wake Forest* -525  vs Utah State
9/16/2017 10:30 PM College Football 209 Stanford* -345  vs San Diego State
Risking $100.00 To Win $98.80 


might lose but wtf.....last week was Kansas and Rutgers......

9/16/2017 7:30 PM College Football 112 South Carolina* -250  vs Kentucky
9/16/2017 12:00 PM College Football 127 Iowa State* -340  vs Akron
9/16/2017 3:30 PM College Football 147 Clemson* -140  vs Louisville
9/16/2017 3:30 PM College Football 150 Syracuse* -390  vs Central Michigan
9/16/2017 11:00 PM Boxing Fighting 502 Gennady Golovkin* -155  vs Saul Alvarez
Risking $100.00 To Win $542.00

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #55
BA...... would you consider dropping Stan off your 1unit play list to the smaller list if it were at -9.5 from -7? I still like it but wanted to know what you think. Tks
 
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Posted: #56

BA, thanks for the can't lose ML parlay's.

You have come through for me 2 weeks in a row! I skipped the Rutgers one, luckily.

Love the ones you have lined up for this week as well.

Wondering if I could get your thoughts on this one:

Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Wake, Western Mich.

BC and BYU look atrocious so far. Just don't want to be against them the one week they decide to show up.

Thanks again BA!

Keep up the good work.




 
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Posted: #57
added ......2 plays small

BC          +14'......sorry added yesterday.....guess got caught in that 2nd post 30 second  thing.....

Idaho       +21......way too many points.....Vandals play MUCH better away......WM off USC / Sparty road
  * recall this is roughly (DL maybe not as good) the same team that was up on COL STATE 61-28 in the 4th in that Potato Bowl....CSU scored 4 garbage TD's to make it look close   
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

trend I like is......BC has covered 8/10 vs Irish.............
  

CAN'T LOSE....ML parlay
  * 2-0 seems like ha

9/16/2017 3:30 PM College Football 134 Minnesota U* -340  vs Middle Tennessee State
9/16/2017 3:00 PM College Football 146 Wake Forest* -525  vs Utah State
9/16/2017 10:30 PM College Football 209 Stanford* -345  vs San Diego State
Risking $100.00 To Win $98.80 


might lose but wtf.....last week was Kansas and Rutgers......

9/16/2017 7:30 PM College Football 112 South Carolina* -250  vs Kentucky
9/16/2017 12:00 PM College Football 127 Iowa State* -340  vs Akron
9/16/2017 3:30 PM College Football 147 Clemson* -140  vs Louisville
9/16/2017 3:30 PM College Football 150 Syracuse* -390  vs Central Michigan
9/16/2017 11:00 PM Boxing Fighting 502 Gennady Golovkin* -155  vs Saul Alvarez
Risking $100.00 To Win $542.00

We need to up your game BA 

I wanna see a weekly UDML parlay from you (if there are 4-7 teams that fit the bill of course).....

Theres big money to be made when everything is + $


 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by JS12:

BA, thanks for the can't lose ML parlay's.

You have come through for me 2 weeks in a row! I skipped the Rutgers one, luckily.

Love the ones you have lined up for this week as well.

Wondering if I could get your thoughts on this one:

Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Wake, Western Mich.

BC and BYU look atrocious so far. Just don't want to be against them the one week they decide to show up.

Thanks again BA!

Keep up the good work.






good man thanks for the kind words.............


IDEA....of the cannot possibly lose ML parlay....is to find a decent size favorite....with a mental edge of some kind (somehow)......playing a sorry opponent who brings very little to the table (somehow ha)

Irish?........terrible....nobody knows the mental state of the team....A-Hole Kelly himself....plus BC desperate with a good D.....AND they usually play ND tough....(the 'inferior' Catholic school thing right)................?  

Wisky?.....not bad (bye next) ....BYU 1-2.....slightly dangerous here

WF?.....only App St next / Aggies have conference game.....LITTLE chance at all WF screws up here

WMich?....prolly works....but off USC / Sparty road?..........NO
  * as I mentioned above this same Vandal team (pretty much) beat the hell outta Colorado St (not fully motivated sure)....key people are back 
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

We need to up your game BA 

I wanna see a weekly UDML parlay from you (if there are 4-7 teams that fit the bill of course).....

Theres big money to be made when everything is + $




there he IS..............

thought about it............great week for dogs.......HOPEFULLY ha
  * not many that seem like they can win SU......never know


  1. 9/16/2017 1:00 PM College Football 122 UAB* +110  vs Coastal Carolina
  2. 9/16/2017 4:00 PM College Football 155 Purdue* +245  vs Missouri
  3. 9/16/2017 7:00 PM College Football 179 Tulsa* +320  vs Toledo
  4. 9/16/2017 7:00 PM College Football 188 Mississippi State* +230  vs LSU
  5. 9/16/2017 8:30 PM College Football 201 Texas* +500  vs USC
Risking $10.00 To Win $6014.94 



BOL this week man.................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by slomotion:

BA...... would you consider dropping Stan off your 1unit play list to the smaller list if it were at -9.5 from -7? I still like it but wanted to know what you think. Tks

small play at 9' should be OK.......given the circumstances about where the line 'should be'.................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:



From Sportsdatabase.com ...


ouch Upside......SS hit you with a capital WRONG !........

BOL to BOTH of you boys this week............

hey for technical stuff.....the database at Oddshark ain't bad

'head to head' match-ups.....before / after bye.....vs a specific conference

Covers may have the same thing I dunno....? 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by mws:


You're making me think of the weekly "ugly mutt" circa 1996 given out by Dave Malinsky's sidekick on a radio program broadcast in Dallas.  Who was that guy? 

I (vaguely) recall that............WHO I have no idea...........sounds like something Norm would do ha
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by arubadk:

Undergrad ba academy so far I got.                                                 Illionios+17    Scaro-6- conn+8- Iowa+8- minn+8-niu+14 bay+14 Clem-3 really,! Btw it would only let me play 100$ use -17 Stan -9 as a new member of the academy I'm of course looking for approval ! Haha love what you do for the board!

Boys might laugh at you for that Baylor......
  * risky because something is going WRONG in Waco for sure

BUT a flat spot (maybe) for Duke....3rd game of a home-stand...off blow out revenge win.....with N Carolina on deck.......laying 14 points to a more athletic team??.......
  * note if played at the end of last year.....Baylor woulda been favored by 3 or so.......so a 17 point swing wtf........

I would be on it.....had I not played them (small) last week.....
  * lose AGAIN?.....really look stupid ha 
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Posted: #65

wankerjake.....thanks buddy have a great week........

woutgm....looks like we should simply TAIL YOU.......

Ol Doc Pecador........that'll teach you to head to head vs the ol BA...........

gamblingallday......thx....didn't know that either at the time.......


BWS77....easier SAID than done huh?.............
 
 winners1941.....thanks man........

BubbaGumpShrimp..........BOL man..........
..
fsutomahawk.......TOO MUCH Okie St love no doubt ha.......
...

njsupreme1......STOP IT man.....you're gonna make me start crying...............
  * all the best this year buddy.............




Just realized why (some) of you knuckleheads question those wacky BetOnline openers......as I was checking line movement / current Vegas odds etc at VI........
   * they don't list the actual opener in several cases....

eg    Boise opened at 20......SEENT it with my own eyeballs....listed at 17 ish......Cuse opened at 6.....listed at 7' 

The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:

BA,  I owe you a beer,  I mentally owe you that beer.  No bet but you got me on that Tulane play.  Smarter than me.

Laff my azz of when you mention "UGLY" bets?

You've wanted this TX. matchup since week zero.  Betting big??

sorry forgot.................NOPE

Not with the current QB situation........still TRUST TOM so I'll stay with it at 17'.........no QB vs Darnold on the road?........gotta label this one a HUNCH only ha.............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



there he IS..............

thought about it............great week for dogs.......HOPEFULLY ha
  * not many that seem like they can win SU......never know


  1. 9/16/2017 1:00 PM College Football 122 UAB* +110  vs Coastal Carolina
  2. 9/16/2017 4:00 PM College Football 155 Purdue* +245  vs Missouri
  3. 9/16/2017 7:00 PM College Football 179 Tulsa* +320  vs Toledo
  4. 9/16/2017 7:00 PM College Football 188 Mississippi State* +230  vs LSU
  5. 9/16/2017 8:30 PM College Football 201 Texas* +500  vs USC
Risking $10.00 To Win $6014.94 



BOL this week man.................
I like where your head is at....

I have those and also Memphis, ODU, Vandy and L Tech on the radar.....

Texas is gonna have to play an amazing game on both sides of the ball to win SU....it can be done of course, but super tough....

BA  
 
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Posted: #68

Thanks again for the knowledge BA!

Love the way you break down the psychological aspect.

This is something that a lot of new gamblers need to be aware of.

Keep those winners coming.

 
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Posted: #69
BA, I appreciate your work.. Something I noticed.. Last week when you posted opening spreads I took that a lot the spreads that moved up the fav covered and the spreads that went down the dog covered. Did this just happen to fall that way or was it that way in week 1 as well
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by Dzzy:

BA, I appreciate your work.. Something I noticed.. Last week when you posted opening spreads I took that a lot the spreads that moved up the fav covered and the spreads that went down the dog covered. Did this just happen to fall that way or was it that way in week 1 as well

In general....that's what's gonna happen
   * but it's much more noticeable because I posted those BEFORE the week 2 games were played.......>  you gotta adjust these AFTER the games were played....AND...since early in the year....several are more than the (usual) 1-2 points

eg.      Purdue after week 1 shoulda been a 10-12 pt dog at Mizzou
    * BUT.....after beating the crap outta Ohio......combined with Mizzou getting the crap beat outta them.......it dropped a full 5 points to 7.....which is where I put it in my notes

A full 5 because odds-makers are struggling to adjust the Boiler's PR #.......already 8ish / maybe even 10 points better than the end of 2016

also.....consider Okie St.....guys are dropping their trousers below their ankles.....at the mere mention of OSU.............

Before week 2 games.....a 'fair' line woulda been around 7.....after blowing out S Alabama (9-21 ATS at home)....and Pitt losing to Penn St / but covering........
  * what shoulda happened?.....instead of 7....maybe 7'....8' tops
moved all the way to 14 or so..........

All you guys so excited about Okie St at 13-14.....you have any idea what this suggests? (assuming we have the number right for Pitt)......>> that OSU is a TOP 5 TEAM.....about 5-6 points worse than ALABAMA.....maybe 2-3 points worse than CLEMSON....
  * meaning you would take OSU -3 over Auburn......P over LSU...maybe -1-2 over Washington.......................

Might work sure.....but at 13-14.... with TCU on deck.....a HORRIBLE bet  ................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #71
Got Damn you're good
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by Dzzy:

Got Damn you're good

check's in the mail man..............

It's more useful if I posted those early Sunday morning like I used to......but I need to spend Sunday morning going over GAME NOTES.....(misleading box scores / injuries +++)....finalizing what plays I will make at what number.....crossing out games just too risky....etc
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


In general....that's what's gonna happen
   * but it's much more noticeable because I posted those BEFORE the week 2 games were played.......>  you gotta adjust these AFTER the games were played....AND...since early in the year....several are more than the (usual) 1-2 points

eg.      Purdue after week 1 shoulda been a 10-12 pt dog at Mizzou
    * BUT.....after beating the crap outta Ohio......combined with Mizzou getting the crap beat outta them.......it dropped a full 5 points to 7.....which is where I put it in my notes

A full 5 because odds-makers are struggling to adjust the Boiler's PR #.......already 8ish / maybe even 10 points better than the end of 2016

also.....consider Okie St.....guys are dropping their trousers below their ankles.....at the mere mention of OSU.............

Before week 2 games.....a 'fair' line woulda been around 7.....after blowing out S Alabama (9-21 ATS at home)....and Pitt losing to Penn St / but covering........
  * what shoulda happened?.....instead of 7....maybe 7'....8' tops
moved all the way to 14 or so..........

All you guys so excited about Okie St at 13-14.....you have any idea what this suggests? (assuming we have the number right for Pitt)......>> that OSU is a TOP 5 TEAM.....about 5-6 points worse than ALABAMA.....maybe 2-3 points worse than CLEMSON....
  * meaning you would take OSU -3 over Auburn......P over LSU...maybe -1-2 over Washington.......................

Might work sure.....but at 13-14.... with TCU on deck.....a HORRIBLE bet  ................
Somebody wake me when Okie Light plays somebody..
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


Boys might laugh at you for that Baylor......
  * risky because something is going WRONG in Waco for sure

Maybe the team didn't like the transfer QB stepping right into the starting role.  Maybe a QB change will make a difference, and I'm looking at the Bears plus and moneyline.
 
 
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Posted: #75
the legend  

thanks for your time and efforts, hope family is well in Texas 
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