WEEK 3 lines / leans

Whats your thoughts Book--

Great thread, thanks for all the help and awesome discussion!

Book, here is what I'm going with.  Do you have any insight on these?

problem ?.... is you have situational issues....
  *off-setting nice match-up edges.....

NMSU D is terrible....gave up 342 rushing to Minny (RB was out)...UTEP with solid RB's plus Aggie transfer Showers at QB.....but Miners off OT loss to New Mexico....and now favored on the road vs a rival.....
  note: the same New Mexico that lost to UTSA at home the previous week.....recall NMSU was tied with Texas close to halftime...and did have some success running the ball at times.....whatever that's worth....
value not bad.....should be 8-9' maybe

Poor value?....with Rutgers .....or maybe not
  *EM pushed around by HOWARD....scored late to win it....the Bison av 5.8/rush.......and now off physical road game vs Penn St.......
kind of a flat spot for Rutgers?...off tough road loss... then played 2 crappy teams.....with Arkansas on deck ..
BUT...I would be very surprised if Rutgers doesn't win by more than 30.....a 45-7 type game seems like


Memphis vs MTSU....................NO
  *Memphis with a strong finish last year shoulda competed vs Duke....(only game)....I have no idea if they keep this one tight .....or get spanked.....slight lean to Memphis.......maybe......BOL dawg......

Maryland 7 UConn
  *love the Terps..but might just watch this one...UConn gets punished by Towson...couldn't run it at all (sacked 5X)...now off bye with Michigan on deck...too easy here?....Terps should kill these boys...Huskies will play hard tho...esp since Terp HC Edsall sneaked outta town when he left UConn...sent texts to players...< seems like.........
 
Marshall 8 Ohio
  *same kinda thing.....Marshall should be too much...the value tho is poor (maybe)...Herd should be favored by 3-4 or so....Ohio's pitiful game vs Louisville pushing this one up.....Bobcats aren't THAT bad...Herd MAY...be that good...risky but one that makes sense....
 
Arizona St 5.5 Wisc
  *poor value?...line should be 2-3 maybe...Devils can move it like crazy...and their D looks tough too...I would think they pull away late...as their pace / speed will be too much here....no biggie...but can't totally ignore ASU has Stanford on deck

Bama 7.5 TAM
  *Bama should kill the Aggies......I will pissed...and disappointed...if Bama does not CRUSH that JF and the Aggies....Saban with rest...AND revenge is almost unbeatable....SU and ATS........... 

UCLA +4.5 Neb
  *that Husker D...is THAT bad...nice value with the rested Bruins (off bye)...line should be close to pick 'em
     Neb shouldn't stop UCLA at all...Bruins make a few stops at least

FAU +12 SFla
  *love this one...FAU covered 10/11 as dog and might win this one.....their D is tough / USF O is horrrrible

GA Tech 8 Duke
  *tho dog might be appealing ....has to be GT or nothing.....as they have dominated the series....Duke QB is out...Jackets with NCaro on deck
    Devil HC Cutcliffe doing a great job...but his D has gotten worse...EVERY year
    this years (projected) D stats?...35 pts/g...6.8/play...5.2/rush...485 yds/g 

Stanford 28 Army
  *Army stinks and is way too small to not get smashed here.....a no show by Tree (Ariz St next) and they still win by 28 .....
  but watch out..... many coaches don't wanna beat military schools up....so don't expect a 55-0 blow-out
But Tree is 12-2 ATS as a road favorite....

Utah 3 Oregon St
  *offense is rolling....tough in the trenches...like this one

BOL man...looks like a winning card........


Nostradamus12....Michfan15...MEGALOCKS....amd....Thoy21....befus.......
thanks for stopping by......BOL this week

I do it back-asswards...I do those when done with FBS stuff...the value seems to be in the FCS for sure......

A few totals might be worth checking out....

Wyo / N Col over 59 ??....Cowboys will come close to that...their D should give up some too

Okie St / Lamar over 58?....huh

Wazzu / S Utah over 45?....say what
  *the Pirate must be unbelievably frustrated with his TERRIBLE O......here he can move it....their D has been playing REALLY hard and might let up here some too

ULL / Nichols St over 59.....ULL really strong O but stopped TY by Kan St and Ark.....NSU had 30FD / 447 TO and 222 rushing vs WMich

a few recommended by others ....

Toledo as a short home fav vs E Wash

Buffalo -12 at home vs Stony Brook....Seawolves (LOVE that mascot) are tough but Buffalo a frustrated bunch looking to bust out one time....if not too beat up

gonna look into Wazzu also....as well as WVag (Ga St is beyond terrible)

BOL this week doc........

Book, really appreciate your insight.  We'll see what happens this week.

Thanks book. You that dude! Best o luck. I am really wanting to see what Johnny fussball can Do if BAMA brings there A game and is hitting on all cylinders (which for money's sake I hope they will)
Ps rice line up to -6.5 you think that's pushing it?
And I really think Marshall is too much for OU but the bobcats will be hungry for a win. I might stay away from that one..still can't pull the trigger

Ps rice line up to -6.5 you think that's pushing it?


* Rice is (probably) about 4-5 points better than Kansas..
so the correct line for this one (arguably) about 7-8

All this the 'PUBLIC' is on Rice stuff is silly....
  *the line is just moving to where it should be

Anything under 7 is good value....the line would have to approach 9'-10 before Rice becomes a 'public fade' ..

I'm gonna take a flier on @Buffalo -12 because the name Stony Brook is to tranquil. Is their main sport football or rowing?  Maybe sailing or poetry. Figure Skating?

 Bol bud!

game previews.....

 9/14        125    Virginia Tech    -7.5    -110    -300
12:00 PM    0    East Carolina    7.5    -110    250
     Over/Under    51.5     

  *Pirates always play VT tough...now the gap is closed...this is one of Beamer's weakest (and beat up) teams...and Ruffin's best
Hokie O should be able to run here some (both ECU's ILB's are out)...but Pirates are a veteran team (49 Jr/Sr + 355 starts back > #2)
with a D good enough to slow Hokies...and an O that should keep pace...and just may have the better QB in Carden....
  $$ Pirates keep this one close or win it outright

 
9/14          131    UL Monroe      3    -110    135
12:30 PM    0    Wake Forest    -3    -110    -155
     Over/Under    53.5   

  *ULM played poorly at OU...somewhat due to QB Browning being injured...but this is the same team basically that LY beat Arkansas...almost beat Auburn and Baylor....I would expect them to return to last years form here...WF looked terrible vs BColl
$ small play on ULM not bad here...or ML at +135 maybe better idea      


9/14        135    Fresno State    -9.5    -110    -350
2:00 PM    0    Colorado             9.5    -110    290
  Over/Under    66.5

*Colorado looks to be much improved...Fresno explosive but flawed...AND has Boise in 6 days
Buffs with a bye next and vividly recall 69-14 beatdown LY........
  note: Col HC MacIntyre has covered 15 of last 17...
going back to SJSU > his teams overachieve
   $  hunch says Colorado keeps it tight....lean OVER            


9/14        139    UCLA            4.5    -110    170
12:00 PM    0    Nebraska     -4.5    -110    -200
  Over/Under    70   

* *that Husker D...is THAT bad...nice value with the rested Bruins (off bye)...line should be close to pick 'em
     Neb shouldn't stop UCLA at all...Bruins make a few stops at least....Huskers return 1/7 from a def front that allowed 4.8/rush and 28 pts/g last year...including 653 to UCLA...week 1 gave up 602 TO to Wyoming ..
             

9/14    143     Tennessee    28    -110    3000
3:30 PM    0    Oregon       -28    -110    -7000
  Over/Under    70

* Vols?...learning new systems and just aren't very good right now...out-gained at home by WKU 236-84 at halftime..up big due to 6 WKU 1H TO's...Vols were able to drive the ball some in the 2H as the Topper D wore down (of course)...Last year Vol D ranked about #102 or so (6.13/play)...and about 95th vs the run...they do bring back 8 from that group...but DT..CB are out...and excellent LB Maggitt is very limited if he does....Ducks can stop the Vols.....Vols will have no answer for the Ducks...and should get killed here
Ducks with situational edge.... with bye on deck vs the big/bad SEC team coming to Autzen....while Vols...have the Gators on deck
  $$$ strong play Ducks whatever the number
           

9/14    145    Mississippi      2.5    -110    120
8:00 PM    0    Texas           -2.5    -110    -140
  *Over/Under    64.5   

*STAY AWAY...I initially loved the Rebels here...but the recent Horn meltdown confuses the issue IMO...
Ole Miss a MUCH STRONGER team than Texas saw last year...but even with Kan St on deck...they can't overlook the team they blew out LY
problem?....Ole Miss might be too tough for Texas....Bama...LSU amd Georgia OL's had their issues once Ole Miss made changes to their D...(less passive 4-2-5...more attacking 4-3)
note:  Ole Miss lost their best player on D (LB Denzel Nkemdiche)...and their top OL ( Aaron Morris) in the Vandy game
for Texas...WR/RB Daje Johnson (top deep threat/most explosive player) is likely out...as is QB Ash (good thing?)
 


9/14    189        Oregon State    3.5    -115    150
10:00 PM    0    Utah                 -3.5    -105    -170
     Over/Under    57.5          

  *Utes tough at home and (seemingly) much improved...Beavs tough road dog but beat up...esp LB and OL (only have 2 back-ups)
Utah passing game and advantage in the trenches should be the difference here in a tough / close game..liked it at 1...might back off at 3'


9/14    151       Alabama      -7.5    -110    -300
3:30 PM    0    Texas A&M    7.5    -110    250
     Over/Under    60.5   

  *First thing to remember....Aggs beat Bama in Tuscaloosa and therefore can damm sure win at home...
Their offense should be as good or better...D down some...Tide potentially even better....once OL gets in gear...

BUT....speaking of the Aggie D.....there is a reason why they had no answer for Rice or Sam Houston...
Their defensive front?....1 Fr starts...5 are back-ups..(that's 6/14 in 2 deep) and..a total of EIGHT FRESHMEN play in the rotation (7/8 TRUE)..............wow

So...that Bama running game that struggled to move it vs VaTech....might run all day here...
  note: Hokie DL much stronger than the Aggies.....at this point IMO

So what happened last year?...Saban played the Aggs the way he always does spread teams...4 DL + 2 pressing CB's + 2 deep safeties (usually nickel/dime coverage)...Aggies were able to run much better than he expected...Aggie WR's were able to get separation...and Manziel made perfect throws several key spots....Aggs atacked Bama nickel guys and made LB's cover and tackle in space...Aggies / Manziel were simply much better than Saban / Bama expected....
    *NOTE: something forgotten somehow....Bama was off a HUGE (comeback) road win at LSU too...
 
Tough to figure that JF runs crazy again here....Saban and K Smart have been working on this all summer no doubt..I expect they find a way to slow the Aggs just enough...this is a game of great interest for defensive coaches all over the nation...(esp PAC!2)
the issue?....how to stop an up-tempo spread team that can run...with a great running QB (that happens to be an excellent passer too)  
A reminder : STATISTICALLY......the best OFFENSE in the SEC last year?....that would be ALABAMA at 6.8/play (Aggies 6.6).....                              
    best running offense?....Bama at 5.6 > Aggs 5.5
    top passing offense? (yds/att)...Bama at 8.9...also PR #1
 
I fully expect Bama to look like they have vs Notre Dame and LSU...and absolutely punish the Aggie D....keeping Johnny Jack-behind..on the SL for the majority of the game
 
 $$$  Saban ....in the laboratory all summer to figure this out...and 2 weeks to whip his OL into shape...is practically unbeatable SU and ATS...with REST and REVENGE
      Strong play on Bama.....lean UNDER                    

love the writeups

/14    153      Northern Illinois        -28.5    -110    -7500
5:00 PM    0    Idaho                     28.5    -110    3250
     Over/Under    62          

* Huskies off a bye....after beating Iowa......and are way too much for one of the nation's worst teams...
  loved it at 24...28 still OK


9/14    155    Mississippi State    6    -110    190
7:00 PM    0    Auburn                  -6    -110    -230
     Over/Under    51          
  *at end of 2012...MSU was about 10 points better (neutral site)...Tigers better sure...but I don't think the gap has closed that much...handled Ark St better than I thought...but they look really average to me...Miss St D did a respectable job vs a much better Okie St O (4.4/pass att) and only off Alcorn ST...with Troy on deck
Auburn has LSU on deck...line should be closer to 2' IMO....
 

9/14    161        Ball State    -3    -120    -160
4:00 PM    0    North Texas    3    100    140
     Over/Under    63
  *liked BSU at basically pick em...at 3 not bad...Mean Green with punchers chance...but didn't compete well at weak Ohio...and have Georgia on deck...an early game so heat maybe a factor here ....BSU has COVERED 16 of last 21 games........         


9/14    165    Southern Mississippi      22    -110    1150
12:20 PM    0    Arkansas                  -22    -110    -1800
     Over/Under    49.5          

  *probably my favorite this week...SMiss off a beating at Nebraska...week 1 lost to TEXAS ST at home....D is decent...but O is TERRIBLE...2 games vs weak D's = 4.7/play....9-33 on 3rd.....1.67/rush (#124)....and 10 TO's (#125)...problem?...new up-tempo offense can't move it...putting their D back on the field too fast...that combined with the TO's...is not good vs the Hogs off a bad game vs FCS Samford
Hog D much improved.....shutted down explosive ULL week 1 (ULL 274 TO / 4.3/play)...SM with a bye then another beating at Boise...Hogs with road game with Rutgers before A&M
   $$$  Hogs roll here...SM with little back-door chances


9/14    167       Vanderbilt             13.5    -110    400
7:00 PM    0    South Carolina      -13.5    -110    -500
  Over/Under 51
  *Cocks off very tough game with Georgia...and seem to have a few 'issues'...Vandy in Austin PEEE / UMass sandwich and usually play SC tough.....
     $ smalll play Vandy at 13'....or buuy...1/2............strong lean under

  
9/14    175     Florida Atlantic    13    -110    400
7:00 PM    0    South Florida    -13    -110    -500
     Over/Under    43.5   

  *FAU with dog covers at Miami and E Caro...weak O but actually pretty tough D...limited EC to 4.9/play and had 6 sacks...Miami only 4-14 on 3rd and 20 FD and was sacked 5 times..this does not bode well for USF...destroyed at home by McNeese and can't move it at all
USF QB is 25-66...275yds...they are 4-26 on 3rd down...no reason FAU (rested off Thurs game) can't keep this one tight)
note : Pelini has covered 10 of 11 games as a road dog
  $$  solid play FAU...strong lean under      


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$$ added Colo and Vandy....most still OK despite line movement...just maybe lesser plays as they cross key numbers
UCLA and FAU the only lines that moved the 'wrong' way...might back off Miss St at 5 or so
 

TOP PLAYS

Ducks -22
Bama -7
Arkansas -21

ONE UNIT

EC +7'
N Illinois -24
Miss St +7
UCLA +4
FAU +10'
Rice -2

smaller

ULM +3
Ball St -1'
Utah -1
Colorado +9
Vandy +14


consider....Maryland -6...Ariz / UTSA over 65...NT / Ball St over 59



BOL this week boys..........

good looking card book--love making informed decisions in CFB and you certainly help provide that. Good luck to us

Bookie:  thoughts on FL St

with only BETHUNE-COOKMAN on deck.....

It would have to be FSU or nothing....Nevada has not looked good so far...but QB Fajardo is really good...
  *giving you the risk of an ugly back-door cover

I would bet FSU 1H maybe...that way if they come out slow (off bye might)....you can hit em again 2H and get your money back at least.....or better...bet at halftime or in-game........I would be surprised if the Pack gets shut down here the whole game
  **bad habit too.....to pass on opening numbers of a big public favorite...and bet it late now at 35+    

BOL.......

My favorite write ups! GL im on most of these!
Any thoughts on Minnesota -24

Also Michigan -37
I live close to Akron and first instinct was 55-0.

thanks for sharing all your thoughts, book.  you are a gem.

Minny looks risky.....they're pretty beat up.....

OT    Ed Olson    Ankle    is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Western Illinois
LB    Nick Rallis    Mononucleosis    is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Western Illinois
RB    Donnell Kirkwood    Ankle    is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Western Illinois
2ndRB    Berkley Edwards    Ankle    is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Western Illinois
DE    Alex Keith    Hand    is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Western Illinois
DB    Briean Boddy-Calhoun    Knee    out for season
WR    Jamel Harbison    Disciplinary    probable Saturday vs. Western Illinois
LB    De'Niro Laster    Knee    "?" Saturday vs. Western Illinois
TE    Drew Goodger    Knee    "?" Saturday vs. Western Illinois
QB    Philip Nelson    Shoulder    injured last game, probable Saturday vs. Western Illinois
3    WR    Andre McDonald    Suspension    out for season

Western not very good.....but the Leathernecks have forced 10 TO's in 2 games.....but already have 25 penalties wtf...

Michigan prolly OK.....Akron QB's are hurt....UM at home is 8-2 ATS laying 10+......BOL whip....



skipster.....dawg....thanks a lot..........

Gl my always enjoy the insight