week 5

did a few early BOL / few late

Ole Miss +15'

Nevada +6'

Iowa -3

Wash -1'

C Mich +1

leans/waiting   NW     Illinois    Army    Wash St    Pitt    Minny    La Tech    UCF   Fresno    Indiana   TCU?    OU?   New Mex ??

@bookieassassin

 Hi Bookie:

Went 3-4 in my Robin. Got a little less than half my money back in Week 4 after a very profitable Week 3. Into Week 5 we go...

Leans on Arkansas, Notre Dame ML, TCU ML, Ole Miss, Kansas State...that’s for now. 

Arkansas playing amazing football. I’ve been on them all season. Georgia is another animal but I think 18 is a tad high. 

TCU and Patterson historically give Texas fits. Getting 4 at home. I think Frogs and  Patterson give Texas all they can handle.

Ole Miss can win this game outright. Heisman Trophy game potentially. The over is too steep, but if I can get 14.5 aka 3 scores, I’m intrigued.

Oklahoma, wow. They just don’t have it going. Home team catching 10 plus, pulled the upset 2 years back at home against Hurts. K State can run it. 

Lastly, Western Kentucky with that pace. The spread opened at 8-8.5 and jumped to 10.5...I’m waiting for more. I think they can backdoor cover or outright keep it within a score. Gave great effort against Indiana last week.

What do you think? Always respect your opinions and leans. I am with you on Fresno as well!

With you on Nevada and Ole Miss 

Didn't K State just beat OU again last year on the road?

@Moose1986

"Oklahoma, wow. They just don’t have it going. "

 Are the Sooners playing a little possum like Clemson last year to reserve something for late in the year...bigger games? 

@Last2thirst

 This is college football, not the NBA. I don’t think teams reserve energy. Oklahoma can’t run the ball, Rattler is a pocket passer purely, and the WR can’t get separation.

Oklahoma does not look like they can hang this year. Like Clemson, they are having trouble scoring. What do you see from Oklahoma that represents they can “turn it on” in the future? 

i'll take my chances with ole miss +15 

busy / old..... boys ..... back later

adding

Cinn / Irish 1H under 24'

Every week this is a must read for me, BA.  I’ve learned a great deal from you over the years.  Just wanted to send out a personal thanks for your weekly contributions. Hope you can Keep it up 

@bookieassassin

 Great work this season!!  What are your thougts on UW now getting 3?  Thanks

Can Ball St stop Army from getting 42? I mean, Miami OH played a great game.....but their D is better than BSUs......total at 47.....would not be hard to imagine Army getting that by themselves.....

BA

Moose and BA - I hear you on TCU you owning Texas recently.   They have beat us 4 of the last 5 seasons.   However, and this may sound homer delusional, I think there is a different dynamic on this Texas Team...And its starts with Sark and his assistants, and then to Casey Thompson, who seems to have good leadership skills, and nothing seems to phase him.   He is intelligent, and manages the game well.  And that's what Texas needed.   I think it is risky to cap this game like this is a typical TCU team against a typical Texas team based on the recent past.   Sure, Patterson, the guru will scheme for us and motivate his players in front of the home fans.   And yes, Texas has not played a road game since the debacle in Arkansas, so that another issue.    However, TCU has not looked good this season.  The non cover against Cal at home (were lucky to win as a 11 pt fave) and then the loss to SMU, a team they have also owned, tells me that all is not right in Fort Worth.   Like many Texas pundits, we have been burned with higher expectations and then its the same ole Texas.   I think the best thing that could have happened to Texas was the beat down against what looks like a top 10 in Arkansas.   And I hope, that Texas has enjoyed destroying inferior opponents this last two weeks and that it becomes an expectations, since we are Texas.     We have significantly more talent than TCU, we just have not been properly coached and motivated to destroy them like we should.  That is due to marginal coaching by Herman, Strong, and the latter years of the Mack Brown tenure.   I want to hope that Texas is tired of being TCU's and specifically the SOB Patterson's b!tch for the last 10 years.   I think Texas will play sound game in all 3 elements, and come away from Fort Worth with a win, and cover.    And I don't think the lookahead to OU next week will be a distraction.   This Texas team should know if they are not prepared and if they don't come with 100% effort, they will get beat by a marginal TCU program...

Great thoughts and write-ups Bookie I will go along with your assessment for Western Kentucky, but the only time  I played on Western Kentucky to go under was when they went into Army this year, and I lost big time 38-35 Army won yes but the Army coach stated after the game "this WK team is not at full throttle yet at this early in the year, and they hit us with  435 passing yards which is the most allowed by an Army defense to a single quarterback since at least 2000". "We were dog tired after that game, and we are proud of our service academies in our conditioning". Western Kentucky runs the type of "CHIP KELLYS BLUR OFFENCE" its full throttle from start to finish, and with that, I will be riding the horse of "OVERS" until I get bucked off.  4 years ago I took Western Kentucky the last half of the season and hit on every OVER there was, at the first of that year they lost to Alabama 38-10, Vanderbilt 31-30, Lousiana Tech 55-52  many times the Bookies couldn't put the score up high enough. that coach Jeff Brohm is now at Perdue, and now this year Western Kentucky has the offensive coordinator that was under Brohm, and doing so has picked up where they left off 4 years ago. 

haha ..... Horn fans say that EVERY YEAR

     "THIS YEAR WILL BE DIFFERENT - YOU WAIT AND SEE !!!!!"

Oct 3, 2020    TCU 33      TEXAS 30   -10.5

Oct 26, 2019  TEXAS 27   TCU 37       -1.0

Sep 22, 2018 TCU 16       TEXAS 31   +2.5

Nov 4, 2017   TEXAS 7     TCU 24       -7.5

Oct 3, 2015    TEXAS 7    TCU 50       -14.5

Nov 27, 2014   TCU 48     TEXAS 10   +4.5

This year it does look different - AGAIN

     >> Frog D is maybe the worst it has been, in a LONG while - so Horns laying < TD looks like a GIFT ha. I might do it, if my dumbazz hadn't bet on Texas about 3 of those games. 2019 looked like a gift, as did that Thanksgiving game in 2014 (brutal). Frog history is again factored into line - Texas -6'/7 would be more like it. Stay far away for me. Tho I might do 1H/2H thing if I get weak ........

@LonghornHoosier

LH, I agree. My only problem is my adjusted power rating on the game has TCU at PK. There may be more adjustment required down the line as Texas improves or regresses. But the last couple weeks it has been pretty accurate on the Horns. Their power rating favored them last week against TTU and the week before vs Rice. I would actually like to see the Horns and the Sooners win this week to set up the RRR showdown next week. 

@Moose1986

 Player ratings and pedigree of their past......like Clemson...Bama...etc with the top recruiters. I trust Steele and my eyes and my eyes tell me they look like they are going through the motions like Clemson did last year even against conference foes

Alright boys. Longhorn and Last2Thirst have made some good debate points. I’m moving off those games. My 7 Team Robin is almost finalized:

I like to keep my card at 5-7 games. Let me know what you guys think. 

- Wisconsin -1

- Notre Dame ML

- Baylor ML

- Ole Miss +14.5

- Liberty ML

- Western Kentucky +10.5 

- Oregon State -2.5

- Fresno State -10.5

TCU gets "up" for Texas a lot more than Texas does.  This is the #1 game on the schedule for TCU but not for Texas.  This year does look different and I bet Texas small for the first time I can remember, so I will probably jinx Texas all by myself  

@Moose1986

I don't trust Wisconsin

ND is a coinflip IMO

You are buying "high" on Oregon St but maybe they are still undervalued for another week

Fresno is good enough to cover this number, but they may be shaving points.  Thats what UNLV game looked like to me...  

Just my 2 cents, Good luck, I hope you sweep the board.

I thought it was clear Thompson was the guy in the bowl game last year for the Horns, I was wondering what the hell was going on there.. That kid can play 

Hey Thorpe:

Appreciate the opinion and kind words. 

I like to buy teams where they were originally slight Underdogs and then flipped to favorites. What are your thoughts on that betting trend I follow?

Secondly, The Under might be the best Wisconsin Michigan play unless pick 6s and KO Returns ruin the day like last week ?????.

Notre Dame is a coin flip but I think they’re the better team despite the QB situation. 

Baylor is getting no love and are very well coached. Fresno should go out there and cover. If my sister had balls, she’d be my brother too. 

Tulsa -3

Tulsa / Houston over 23'

Tulsa always comes back / Cougs often fold...both should move ball tho

Fine work boys, back late tonight

Going back to the well with Toledo 1st half -15.5, what do you think about that matchup of Vandy and UConn in the battle for the biggest pile of 

The more I look makes me think the Huskies have a shot to pull the upset but the +15 seems pretty safe

Any input on mizz -2.5 bookie?  Thanks in advance!

smart play? - don't bet this week .,....

added this week

 Pitt -2'

NW. +12

Ga / Ark. 1H UNDER 25

FLA. TT over 30'

UTEP. -5'

Tulane -3

Ohio St. -15

WKU. +10'

Ark +10 1H

ML parlay.  USC / Army / Fresno

 BOL boys.