Finally a solid week after three straight .500 showings. Hitting the Rutgers money line and Baylor in-game +180 made for some quality profit. Situational plays hitting with much more frequency than last year.
Waiting for opening lines. Preliminary interests in Washington, Boston College, Virginia, UNC, Duke, Navy, Arkansas, Tennessee, Arizona, NC State, Middle Tenn, Tulane.
Finally a solid week after three straight .500 showings. Hitting the Rutgers money line and Baylor in-game +180 made for some quality profit. Situational plays hitting with much more frequency than last year.
Waiting for opening lines. Preliminary interests in Washington, Boston College, Virginia, UNC, Duke, Navy, Arkansas, Tennessee, Arizona, NC State, Middle Tenn, Tulane.
Couple things. I had Rutgers money line this past weekend and watched the game from start to finish. Is Arkansas really flawed? Oh, yes. Very. But the best thing that can happen right now for this team is to get the hell out of Fayetteville. Considering the expectations heading into the season, the natives are quite restless and are understandably beginning to cause a ruckus. Leaving town and heading into an intimidating road environment is ultimately going to be a net positive. Also consider that Rutgers was a BAD matchup for the Hogs. The Knights are extremely physical and have a defense designed to shut down the spread. A & M has not shown nearly enough to be laying this number.
Is there risk in this play? Definitely. But to be honest I would not be remotely surprised to see Arkansas win this game outright.
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Quote Originally Posted by bullmoose:
what have you seen that you like about ark?
Couple things. I had Rutgers money line this past weekend and watched the game from start to finish. Is Arkansas really flawed? Oh, yes. Very. But the best thing that can happen right now for this team is to get the hell out of Fayetteville. Considering the expectations heading into the season, the natives are quite restless and are understandably beginning to cause a ruckus. Leaving town and heading into an intimidating road environment is ultimately going to be a net positive. Also consider that Rutgers was a BAD matchup for the Hogs. The Knights are extremely physical and have a defense designed to shut down the spread. A & M has not shown nearly enough to be laying this number.
Is there risk in this play? Definitely. But to be honest I would not be remotely surprised to see Arkansas win this game outright.
-First glance Buffalo catching 18 is too many. I'm sure this has something to do with UB looking anemic on national TV against Kent State, but the UConn offense is not nearly consistent enough to be laying this number against a team of near-equivalent talent. Huskies expended a ton of energy mounting a failed comeback at Western Michigan.
-Been on the Penn State bandwagon since week 2 and am beyond impressed with what O'Brien has done in Happy Valley. Time to get off for this week, though. Illinois played about as poorly as it could possibly play against LA Tech and went toe-to-toe with the Lions in State College last year. This one is probably tight most of the way and there's no chance in hell I could trust Ficken and the PSU kicking game, especially on the road.
-Speaking of LA Tech, how 'bout those Bulldogs, eh? 50+ points in the first three games of the season. A 28-point win on the road against a well-regarded B1G team. Impressive, to say the least. The party ends this week, though. Back-to-back road games and a shitload of travel, not to mention an underachieving UVA defense, is ultimately going to be too much to overcome. I've been fading the Wahoos for three weeks straight, but a reversal of fortunes is in order. Waiting to see if I could get a better number as LA Tech will be a very popular play.
-Not without hesitation, but I may have to lay the 24 with North Carolina. Consider this for Idaho: week 2 @ Bowling Green, followed by a cross-country flight back to Moscow. Four days later, another cross-country flight to Baton Rouge, followed by a return flight to Moscow. Lose a heartbreaker at home to an evenly-matched Wyoming squad. Now, travel all the way back across the country to Chapel Hill. Yikes. Just not sure how much they have left in the tank. UNC has the Hokies on-deck but it may not matter. This could be downright ugly.
-Purdue has a tremendous run defense, but the secondary is suspect. Marshall brings in a relatively explosive passing game. Boilers with Michigan on-deck in a big, big lookahead. Worth at least considering the Herd.
-Duke. Better team catching points in what is usually a nailbiter. Revenge from last year and a Wake unit that turned in a massive effort to turn away Army on Saturday. No real HFA advantage, either.
-So San Jose St stages a frantic rally to pull off an enormous win on the road in the final seconds against SDSU and now comes cross-country for an early-afternoon game against the triple option. Why are they favored? Don't know, but hell yeah, I'll take the points with the Midshipmen in a revenge spot from last year's 27-24 SJSU win.
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Some thoughts...
-First glance Buffalo catching 18 is too many. I'm sure this has something to do with UB looking anemic on national TV against Kent State, but the UConn offense is not nearly consistent enough to be laying this number against a team of near-equivalent talent. Huskies expended a ton of energy mounting a failed comeback at Western Michigan.
-Been on the Penn State bandwagon since week 2 and am beyond impressed with what O'Brien has done in Happy Valley. Time to get off for this week, though. Illinois played about as poorly as it could possibly play against LA Tech and went toe-to-toe with the Lions in State College last year. This one is probably tight most of the way and there's no chance in hell I could trust Ficken and the PSU kicking game, especially on the road.
-Speaking of LA Tech, how 'bout those Bulldogs, eh? 50+ points in the first three games of the season. A 28-point win on the road against a well-regarded B1G team. Impressive, to say the least. The party ends this week, though. Back-to-back road games and a shitload of travel, not to mention an underachieving UVA defense, is ultimately going to be too much to overcome. I've been fading the Wahoos for three weeks straight, but a reversal of fortunes is in order. Waiting to see if I could get a better number as LA Tech will be a very popular play.
-Not without hesitation, but I may have to lay the 24 with North Carolina. Consider this for Idaho: week 2 @ Bowling Green, followed by a cross-country flight back to Moscow. Four days later, another cross-country flight to Baton Rouge, followed by a return flight to Moscow. Lose a heartbreaker at home to an evenly-matched Wyoming squad. Now, travel all the way back across the country to Chapel Hill. Yikes. Just not sure how much they have left in the tank. UNC has the Hokies on-deck but it may not matter. This could be downright ugly.
-Purdue has a tremendous run defense, but the secondary is suspect. Marshall brings in a relatively explosive passing game. Boilers with Michigan on-deck in a big, big lookahead. Worth at least considering the Herd.
-Duke. Better team catching points in what is usually a nailbiter. Revenge from last year and a Wake unit that turned in a massive effort to turn away Army on Saturday. No real HFA advantage, either.
-So San Jose St stages a frantic rally to pull off an enormous win on the road in the final seconds against SDSU and now comes cross-country for an early-afternoon game against the triple option. Why are they favored? Don't know, but hell yeah, I'll take the points with the Midshipmen in a revenge spot from last year's 27-24 SJSU win.
I don't think I can bring myself to actually bet Navy as a favorite this year, because I'm pretty sure they're terrible, but if they're going to win, they're going to win this week. Excellent spot.
Good call on Marshall too, will give them a look.
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I don't think I can bring myself to actually bet Navy as a favorite this year, because I'm pretty sure they're terrible, but if they're going to win, they're going to win this week. Excellent spot.
Middies' poor record to date is due in part to shooting themselves in the foot: 10 turnovers in 3 games is not a recipe for success. The ground game is still very productive, and SJSU can be run on. Add to that a fair pass defense thus far and the boys from Canoe U may tally one in the win column this weekend, if they can stop putting the ball on the ground. They've been a good fade, but agree it's time to back them,imho.
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Middies' poor record to date is due in part to shooting themselves in the foot: 10 turnovers in 3 games is not a recipe for success. The ground game is still very productive, and SJSU can be run on. Add to that a fair pass defense thus far and the boys from Canoe U may tally one in the win column this weekend, if they can stop putting the ball on the ground. They've been a good fade, but agree it's time to back them,imho.
I'm taking SJSU this week for the simple fact that they've faced Stanford and SDSU and done relatively well against the run. Navy is bad this year. I'll take SFSU by a field goal.
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I'm taking SJSU this week for the simple fact that they've faced Stanford and SDSU and done relatively well against the run. Navy is bad this year. I'll take SFSU by a field goal.
Arid - Agree completely. The defense is pretty bad and the offense doesn't have typical Navy efficiency, but SJSU is probably in the worst spot of any team on this entire card. A lot of people just don't give proper respect to the difficulty of defending the triple-option with limited prep time.
Shakey- Like your thinking. As you know, BC offense is miles ahead of last year's version and the defense will have trouble keeping up with the Tigers' speed.
DoubleUp- I will likely be on both.
Retain - I do. It's been a bad matchup for UW the last few years because of Stanford's ability to control clock with the ground-and-pound. But...Thursday night in Seattle with what will be an ear-splitting crowd...tough task for Nunes and the other newcomers making their first career starts on the road.
DStaxx - Definitely see your point, but the triple-option is a different animal from the traditional power-running attacks of Stanford and San Diego State. Plus, it's a second consecutive road game, cross country travel, revenge from last year, early start time, and a prime letdown after an emotional win.
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Arid - Agree completely. The defense is pretty bad and the offense doesn't have typical Navy efficiency, but SJSU is probably in the worst spot of any team on this entire card. A lot of people just don't give proper respect to the difficulty of defending the triple-option with limited prep time.
Shakey- Like your thinking. As you know, BC offense is miles ahead of last year's version and the defense will have trouble keeping up with the Tigers' speed.
DoubleUp- I will likely be on both.
Retain - I do. It's been a bad matchup for UW the last few years because of Stanford's ability to control clock with the ground-and-pound. But...Thursday night in Seattle with what will be an ear-splitting crowd...tough task for Nunes and the other newcomers making their first career starts on the road.
DStaxx - Definitely see your point, but the triple-option is a different animal from the traditional power-running attacks of Stanford and San Diego State. Plus, it's a second consecutive road game, cross country travel, revenge from last year, early start time, and a prime letdown after an emotional win.
Think so. Win on the road in conference over a ranked team followed by another road game the following week? Usually not a good recipe. Lone concern is Arizona's mental state after the second half beatdown in Eugene.
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Quote Originally Posted by CoverLane:
Oregon St. runs out of gas this weekend?
Think so. Win on the road in conference over a ranked team followed by another road game the following week? Usually not a good recipe. Lone concern is Arizona's mental state after the second half beatdown in Eugene.
Missed the opening number of 28 but I think this keeps going down throughout the week. Pretty standard spot play after Tech choked away a 17-point second half lead against Miami and travels to Clemson next week. MTSU has two weeks of prep time to get ready for the option and I am expecting Tech to be somewhat flat, especially at the start of the game.
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Middle Tennessee +27.5 @ Georgia Tech (1 unit)
Missed the opening number of 28 but I think this keeps going down throughout the week. Pretty standard spot play after Tech choked away a 17-point second half lead against Miami and travels to Clemson next week. MTSU has two weeks of prep time to get ready for the option and I am expecting Tech to be somewhat flat, especially at the start of the game.
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