Week 5 CFB Plays

Always appreciate your thoughts JFen!

GL on your plays

JF, I am begging you not to play TENN..... Admitedly homer here, but Rambo and Ogiltree are both going to be back to boost a very good SEC defense. Georgia's offense is htting on all cylinders. I think Dawgs win by 30.

jfen31 you are totally blowing my mind - i never read any blogs but decided to click on this one - rarely if ever do i hear or read another sports bettor who looks at upcoming games similar to how i do - never - well if i didn't know better i would think almost every post you wrote was me talking - seriously - mindboggling - i went over this upcoming weeks slate on sunday & came up with 11 games i like - Arkansas (i'm already on them +14), Tennesee (haven't bet it yet cuz line has gone down to 13 but was on my hitlist), Virginia (absolutely love it - already on them +3 -115), Navy (this is unreal how many of my games are the same as yours but also the team - anyway i guessed navy +3, opened +2 1/2 now up to +3 - just sitting on it for now, Arizona (thought about it but hate betting favs - very rare) & finally Illinois (i guessed pick 'em - Illinois is -1 1/2 - just sitting on it) anyway my others are already on Wisconsin +14 @ Nebraska, S. Florida +17 over Florida St, love S. Miss +11 over Louisville & also looking at Kentucky but no line as of yet i think due to S. Carolina Q.B. situation - this is almost scary how similar are picks are this week so good luck man, i obviously hope you kick serious ass as we're thinking very similar on a number of games - good luck man & thanks for blowing my mind - just glad i wasn't high when i first read it - would of freaked me right out

liking virginia this week best gl this week JFen

one game i do wanna see your opinion on is the minnesota game.  dunno why they a 7 point underdog against iowa thoughts?

I'll revisit the Tenn-UGA game. I figured +14 would be the best available number and thus far that has proven to be the case. A buyback at -12/-12.5 is certainly an option.

Well, I guess look at it this way. Iowa played a terrible game Saturday and suffered one of the worst home losses of the Ferentz era. You have to assume they come back with a truly maxed-out effort in the conference opener against a team that upset them last year in Minneapolis. If such an effort is present, Iowa easily wins this game. Minnesota's defense looks vastly improved, but the offense still has miles to go and the conference opener on the road might not be the place for immediate improvement.

Either way, probably a no-play for me.

Fazzool - Game is at Jerry's World so no HFA for either side. Game should probably be a PK but Houston is still living a little bit off of reputation from the Keenan/Sumlin era.

LetsBeatdaHouse- Three "safest" are probably Ohio, UNC, and South Carolina. Strange feeling one member of the group will go down (FSU? Monroe?)

Abizzo - Normally I would be all over USF in this spot but there are just too many negatives for me to pull the trigger. Teams who will give FSU trouble will have a sound decision-maker at quarterback to go along with a stable offensive line and capable running game. USF has the athletes to hang, but lacks the intangibles present in quality football teams.

DANewGuy - I'm having the same problem. The leans have been chopped in half and somehow Texas State is still on the list. Initial thought on taking TSU was major Wolfpack blowout @ Hawaii - a place Ault's teams have struggled - followed by long flight back and then travel to Texas. Weird game to cap...

Jfen

I have watched both teams play and when you think that Arkansas leaving and playing in one of the toughest places to play in college football is a net positive makes no sense. No disrespect but these are college kids and walking into the hornest nest is not BETTER. Did you know who coaches Arkansas? This guy just filed Chapter 7 three weeks ago and in a press conference called his program the Alabama program. Arkansas has always has great playmakers but when they lost Adam and company that was their offense. Plus their defense is freakin HORRIBLE. You say Rutgers offense is setup to stop the spread and they are physical????? What about Texas A&M? They dominated Florida and if they did anything in the 2nd half would have won that game. Texas qb is the real deal after already playing extremely well against a defense that is 5 times as good as Arkansas. AM has finally got it together with a good qb and the 12th man will have a huge effect on this game. Rutgers sliced and diced them at Arkansas. What is AM going to do at home?? Arkansas has to play PERFECT to win this game and Wilson doesnt have the Oline or the playmakers to keep up with AM in this game. This team is lost like their coach. GL on your play I am just on the other side but its an early game so who knows.

Handicapper - You may well prove correct. No surprise if A & M wins by 3 TD's. But it's one of those plays where I'm willing to take a shot based on some gut feel.

I will have a little on the Arky ML.

SEC teams are accustomed to playing in front of large hostile crowds.  A&M may win and cover, but if they do, I don't think it will be because of the venue and crowd.

Jimmy

Jimmy and Jfen I guess we will just to agree to disagree. A&M is not just a large venue its the loudest crowd in college football. It causes false starts and various other problems for the opposing team. For anyone to say that playing on the road at Kyle Field is not a factor in the game knows absolutely nothing about college football. Especially now that A&M has a team to go along with it. Arkansas is not well coached on top of everything. Tyler Wilson is playing up to his abilites for REASONS. His Oline sucks and he doesn't have the gamebreakers on WR side. They also have the weakest defense in the last 5 years. This could be the best A&M team in the last 10 years. I have always said that if they can get the right coach they have a chance to be in the NC discussion because of Kyle Field and how they can recruit. They just announced plans to spend 420 million to make Kyle Field over 100k. I just see two teams going in COMPLETELY different directions and Wilson doesnt have the weapons to stick with A&M.

Also Jimmy I dont know if I would be making comments about how SEC teams are used to playing in front of big crowds and wont affect the game. Hmmmmm wasnt your big play LSU against Auburn. Well I watched that game and that qb and team sure as heck looked pretty average scoring 12 pts to eak out a win against a horrible Auburn team. These guys are not professional players they are 19 to 20 year old kids sometimes playing their first road game ever and when you look at the ENTIRE TEAM breakdowns happen all over the place ESPECIALLY  on the road.

Week 5 Current Card
Stanford @ Washington +7 (1 unit)
Stanford @ Washington ML +235 (0.5 unit)
Louisiana Tech @ Virginia +3 (1 unit)
UL-Monroe @ Tulane +17 (1 unit)
Missouri @ Central Florida -2.5 (1 unit)
Arkansas +13 @ Texas A & M (1 unit)
Tennessee +14 @ Georgia (1 unit)
Buffalo +17.5 @ UCONN (1 unit)
Middle Tennessee +27.5 @ Georgia Tech (1 unit)
Oregon State @ Arizona -3 (1 unit)
Duke +10/Nebraska -6 -120 (1 unit)

Leans:
Duke +3, NC State +2.5, Navy +2.5, Marshall +17, Illinois -1

Weeknight home underdogs come through yet again...

Love seeing Illinois move back to a PK, enabling me to do this...

Illinois +7/NC State +10 -120 (1 unit)

Great call tonite JFen!

Bol 

Jfen, any ideas on wiscy?

Never mind, noticed you had Nebraska in a teaser. 

Fantastic analysis as always, thanks for the input