***WEEK 5, NCAAF***

Week 5 Thursday, 9/25/2008 8:00 PM

SMU (1 - 3) at TULANE (1 - 2)

In past games, the underdog covered the spread 10 times, while the favorite covered the spread 2 times.
Edge against the spread=SMU

Since 1992, the road underdog has covered the spread 28 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 12 times.
Edge against the spread=SMU

Over the last 3 seasons, the road underdog has covered the spread 9 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 0 times.
Edge against the spread=SMU

Since 1992, the road underdog has covered the spread 7 times, while the home favorite covered the spread 1 times.
Edge against the spread=SMU

Play On - Any team (SMU) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.
(65-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.1%, +33.1 units)

Mustangs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Green Wave are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.

Green Wave are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

My opinion against the side in this game is to take:

SMU MUSTANGS +18

Week 5 Thursday, 9/25/2008 8:00 PM

SMU (1 - 3) at TULANE (1 - 2)

Over is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Jones is 16-2 OVER (+13.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Jones 40.9, OPPONENT 26.4

Jones is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=120 rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Jones 38.1, OPPONENT 25.8

Jones is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.25 rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was Jones 41.7, OPPONENT 25.0

My opinion against the total in this game is to take:

OVER 49

Week 5 Thursday, 9/25/2008 9:00 PM

USC (2 - 0) at OREGON ST (1 - 2)

The Beavers are 5-1 ATS as home dogs against Top 10 teams, with the Trojans just 1-6 ATS in first Pac-10 road encounter. In past games, the underdog covered the spread 14 times, while the favorite covered the spread 4 times. Edge against the spread=OREGON ST

Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play Against - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (USC) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, in the first half of the season.
(46-20 since 1992.) (69.7%, +24 units)

Play On - Home underdogs (OREGON ST) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (<=100 RY/game).
(43-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.4%, +22.1 units)

Play On - Home underdogs (OREGON ST) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) against a team with an excellent rushing defense (<=100 RY/game), in conference games.
(37-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (74%, +22.7 units)

USC is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was USC 23.4, OPPONENT 22.5

USC is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was USC 26.4, OPPONENT 20.1

OREGON ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games off a home win since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 31.4, OPPONENT 19.3

OREGON ST is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 32.4, OPPONENT 20.0

OREGON ST is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games after playing a game at home since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 29.8, OPPONENT 20.0

OREGON ST is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 26.7, OPPONENT 24.1

OREGON ST is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 30.5, OPPONENT 20.2

OREGON ST is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 28.8, OPPONENT 19.7

OREGON ST is 75-51 ATS (+18.9 Units) after the first month of the season since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 24.2, OPPONENT 24.7

OREGON ST is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 28.4, OPPONENT 21.2

OREGON ST is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 26.5, OPPONENT 22.1

OREGON ST is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 28.4, OPPONENT 21.2

Riley is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a bye week as the coach of OREGON ST.
The average score was OREGON ST 31.4, OPPONENT 23.0

Riley is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of OREGON ST.
The average score was OREGON ST 27.4, OPPONENT 24.9

Riley is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of OREGON ST.
The average score was OREGON ST 26.3, OPPONENT 25.8

Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.

Beavers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.

Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.

Beavers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.

Beavers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

My opinion against the side in this game is to take:

OREGON STATE BEAVERS +25

Week 5 Thursday, 9/25/2008 9:00 PM

USC (2 - 0) at OREGON ST (1 - 2)

Under is 5-0 in Trojans last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

Under is 8-1 in Trojans last 9 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Under is 8-1 in Trojans last 9 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 7-1 in Trojans last 8 games following a ATS win.

Under is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Under is 8-2 in Trojans last 10 games following a S.U. win.

Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games in September.

Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Under is 8-2-1 in Beavers last 11 games following a bye week.

Under is 4-1 in Beavers last 5 home games.

Play Under - Any team against the total (USC) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game.
(177-113 over the last 5 seasons.) (61%, +52.7 units)

30 games went under the total, while 10 games went over the total.
Edge against the total=Under

OREGON ST is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 18.5, OPPONENT 24.5

USC is 19-9 UNDER (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was USC 32.4, OPPONENT 14.8

USC is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was USC 29.6, OPPONENT 14.6

USC is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) in road games after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points since 1992.
The average score was USC 31.3, OPPONENT 17.3

USC is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) in road games after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points since 1992.
The average score was USC 31.1, OPPONENT 17.0

USC is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points since 1992.
The average score was USC 34.3, OPPONENT 17.1

USC is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was USC 29.0, OPPONENT 14.0

USC is 21-7 UNDER (+13.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was USC 27.8, OPPONENT 18.1

USC is 15-6 UNDER (+8.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was USC 30.9, OPPONENT 16.7

USC is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was USC 30.1, OPPONENT 14.6

USC is 19-9 UNDER (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was USC 32.4, OPPONENT 14.8

USC is 18-8 UNDER (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was USC 33.0, OPPONENT 14.3

USC is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was USC 27.8, OPPONENT 16.7

USC is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was USC 28.5, OPPONENT 13.0

USC is 17-5 UNDER (+11.5 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was USC 30.2, OPPONENT 17.7

USC is 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was USC 32.1, OPPONENT 15.8

USC is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was USC 32.4, OPPONENT 11.3

USC is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was USC 27.6, OPPONENT 17.6

USC is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was USC 28.0, OPPONENT 19.0

OREGON ST is 22-10 UNDER (+11.0 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992.
The average score was OREGON ST 23.1, OPPONENT 23.5

Carroll is 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of USC.
The average score was USC 27.4, OPPONENT 16.2

Carroll is 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) in road games after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points as the coach of USC.
The average score was USC 33.7, OPPONENT 16.9

Carroll is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points as the coach of USC.
The average score was USC 35.8, OPPONENT 19.0

Riley is 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of OREGON ST.
The average score was OREGON ST 21.2, OPPONENT 25.5

My opinion against the total in this game is to take:

UNDER 52.5