***WEEK 5, NCAAF***

Week 5 Friday, 9/26/2008 8:00 PM

CONNECTICUT (4 - 0) at LOUISVILLE (2 - 1)

It’s the Big East opener for Connecticut and Louisville in prime time. UConn has started 4-0 with last week’s win over Baylor 31-28 and is 1-2 ATS to start 2008. Since joining the Big East, Connecticut is 14-13 ATS in conference play, but 3-10 ATS away from Storrs. The Huskies are just 7-12 ATS on the road the last five seasons. Louisville is trying to win and restore image as Top 10 program, as talent levels have fallen and last week’s win over K-State helped. The Cards are one-game below .500 ATS in league play since becoming Big East member. In three previous meetings the HT has covered each time.

Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (LOUISVILLE) - after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. (36-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.6%, +23.9 units)

CONNECTICUT is 0-6 against the 1rst half line (-6.6 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 5.5, OPPONENT 14.7

LOUISVILLE is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 13.7, OPPONENT 9.4

LOUISVILLE is 14-3 against the 1rst half line (+10.7 Units) vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game since 1992.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 12.7, OPPONENT 11.0

LOUISVILLE is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 13.3, OPPONENT 8.3

LOUISVILLE is 8-1 against the 1rst half line (+6.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 13.6, OPPONENT 9.6

LOUISVILLE is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 14.3, OPPONENT 10.5

LOUISVILLE is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game since 1992.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 23.2, OPPONENT 7.5

LOUISVILLE is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 19.9, OPPONENT 7.3

LOUISVILLE is 2-0 versus the first half line when playing against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons.

My opinion against the side in this game is to take:

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS -2 FIRST HALF

ADDING:

Week 5 Saturday, 9/27/2008

3:30 PM- CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at AKRON (2 - 2)

CINCINNATI -10

3:30 PM- ARKANSAS (2 - 1) at TEXAS (3 - 0)

ARKANSAS +28

3:30 PM- COLORADO (3 - 0) at FLORIDA ST (2 - 1) in Jacksonville

OVER 41.5

Be back later with some late evening and night games.....GL!