Week 4 Recap: Went 6-1 and plus 17.4 stars. Was a good week – both 4 star plays on GT and A&M were great plays and covered by more than a td. The only win that was questionable was Oklahoma. I don’t think that was a good bet either way and it could have lost but glad I got it at 13.5. The only loss - SMU -looked good in FH but TCU dominated the third qtr and TCU was the right side in that one. Total for the season now is 17-6 and plus 32.9 stars.
On to this week – will be able to do write ups this week. Not a great week at first glance so the slate may be less but one game I do like a lot. I list a few below – write ups will follow later this evening or in the next couple of days.
5* Texas Tech -10
4* Hou – Texas Tech Over 52
2* Texas A&M -6.5
2* Purdue -1
One note – TT total surprisingly dropped to 51.5 and now looks like it has gone up to 52. I expected this in the mid 50s so I expect this to go back up. Anyone wanting to play it I would get it now. Not sure why this went down – pace will be good and Morton might be better at QB
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Week 4 Recap: Went 6-1 and plus 17.4 stars. Was a good week – both 4 star plays on GT and A&M were great plays and covered by more than a td. The only win that was questionable was Oklahoma. I don’t think that was a good bet either way and it could have lost but glad I got it at 13.5. The only loss - SMU -looked good in FH but TCU dominated the third qtr and TCU was the right side in that one. Total for the season now is 17-6 and plus 32.9 stars.
On to this week – will be able to do write ups this week. Not a great week at first glance so the slate may be less but one game I do like a lot. I list a few below – write ups will follow later this evening or in the next couple of days.
5* Texas Tech -10
4* Hou – Texas Tech Over 52
2* Texas A&M -6.5
2* Purdue -1
One note – TT total surprisingly dropped to 51.5 and now looks like it has gone up to 52. I expected this in the mid 50s so I expect this to go back up. Anyone wanting to play it I would get it now. Not sure why this went down – pace will be good and Morton might be better at QB
I view it as 2 bets - I will be surprised if Tech doesn’t score in the 30s. Just depends on your comfort with the risk - u r right in that of the game goes completely opp of what I think it’s like losing 2 bets. If that is the case then on games where u like both just cut the dollars in half.
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@steponaduck
I view it as 2 bets - I will be surprised if Tech doesn’t score in the 30s. Just depends on your comfort with the risk - u r right in that of the game goes completely opp of what I think it’s like losing 2 bets. If that is the case then on games where u like both just cut the dollars in half.
None / I like Morton. I actually wanted him in when they played Oregon. He had flashes last year / I think he will bring some energy to the team and they will run faster tempo. He is from Lubbock so the fan base will be behind him as some wanted him to start anyway. He wasn’t consistent last year but he also hurt his got foot against okl st that impacted him then got hurt against TCU - Houston def is not good so I don’t see them being able to throw diff looks at him like Baylor did last year.
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@FatCheeks
None / I like Morton. I actually wanted him in when they played Oregon. He had flashes last year / I think he will bring some energy to the team and they will run faster tempo. He is from Lubbock so the fan base will be behind him as some wanted him to start anyway. He wasn’t consistent last year but he also hurt his got foot against okl st that impacted him then got hurt against TCU - Houston def is not good so I don’t see them being able to throw diff looks at him like Baylor did last year.
Texas Tech looked awful last week so people will wonder how I can play them as a 5 star this week. Coming into the year I thought TT would be in the upper half of the big 12 and their off was suppose to be very good as they returned pretty much everyone from last year. When looking at them you have to put things in perspective to their schedule. First game – at Wyoming in the altitude is tricky. Then they play a top 10 Oregon team who is very good. Last week they play a very avg WV team but it was on the road and in the rain. Now they are 1-3 and the season on the edge of disaster and their starting QB is out. TT has always been much better at home and now have a game that will pretty much dictate their season so I expect a very focused team as they will get scrutinized all week. On the flip side I believe Houston is the worst team in the big 12 and will have the worst def by far.
TT scored over 30 pts in 6 of their 7 games at home last year and were 5-2 ATS. Only game they didn’t was against Baylor who had a pretty good pass def. They return everyone. Morton played several games last year and was highly touted out of high school. He showed flashes and when he played the team seemed to go very fast. He is aggressive with his passing and really only played poorly against Baylor. I thought he was better than Shough so him playing I think is a positive. Houston lost 8 of their top 9 tacklers from last year and have a secondary that Phil Steele rated as worst in the big 12. They got torched by both Rice and TCU – TCU should have scored more than 36 and they run a similar style off to Tech. Houston gave up over 30 pts in 7 of their 12 games last year against lesser opponents and lost a lot on defense. I think this will be a long season for them.
Morton struggled when pressured last year however I don’t see Houston being able to provide the pressure other teams can and since TT is at home that will help. This offense has weapons and Brooks is one of the better backs nobody knows. I expect a very fast pace and for Brooks to get more touches in this game. Morton might make a mistake or two but I think he will energize them and make some plays. Houston QB played at Tech and would have been third on the depth chart this year and will make mistakes. I think Houston is a poor defense and they are last in the big 12 in pass plays of 10 yds or more given up (46 plays and that includes a game against Sam Houston). Hou has struggled in pass protection which will help Tech in this one as I think Tech will be able to generate some stops. I think Tech explodes in this one and puts it to their in state opponent.
Prediction: Texas Tech by 25
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5* Texas Tech -10
Texas Tech looked awful last week so people will wonder how I can play them as a 5 star this week. Coming into the year I thought TT would be in the upper half of the big 12 and their off was suppose to be very good as they returned pretty much everyone from last year. When looking at them you have to put things in perspective to their schedule. First game – at Wyoming in the altitude is tricky. Then they play a top 10 Oregon team who is very good. Last week they play a very avg WV team but it was on the road and in the rain. Now they are 1-3 and the season on the edge of disaster and their starting QB is out. TT has always been much better at home and now have a game that will pretty much dictate their season so I expect a very focused team as they will get scrutinized all week. On the flip side I believe Houston is the worst team in the big 12 and will have the worst def by far.
TT scored over 30 pts in 6 of their 7 games at home last year and were 5-2 ATS. Only game they didn’t was against Baylor who had a pretty good pass def. They return everyone. Morton played several games last year and was highly touted out of high school. He showed flashes and when he played the team seemed to go very fast. He is aggressive with his passing and really only played poorly against Baylor. I thought he was better than Shough so him playing I think is a positive. Houston lost 8 of their top 9 tacklers from last year and have a secondary that Phil Steele rated as worst in the big 12. They got torched by both Rice and TCU – TCU should have scored more than 36 and they run a similar style off to Tech. Houston gave up over 30 pts in 7 of their 12 games last year against lesser opponents and lost a lot on defense. I think this will be a long season for them.
Morton struggled when pressured last year however I don’t see Houston being able to provide the pressure other teams can and since TT is at home that will help. This offense has weapons and Brooks is one of the better backs nobody knows. I expect a very fast pace and for Brooks to get more touches in this game. Morton might make a mistake or two but I think he will energize them and make some plays. Houston QB played at Tech and would have been third on the depth chart this year and will make mistakes. I think Houston is a poor defense and they are last in the big 12 in pass plays of 10 yds or more given up (46 plays and that includes a game against Sam Houston). Hou has struggled in pass protection which will help Tech in this one as I think Tech will be able to generate some stops. I think Tech explodes in this one and puts it to their in state opponent.
Won’t do a compete write up since I covered most of it above. Both teams will play with tempo. I expect TT to at least be in the mid 30s and I believe they will be over 40. Hou will be good enough to get some points as the TT defense is average. Surprised this total is this low so I like it to go over.
Prediction: 73 pts
2* Purdue -1
Purdue has played a tough schedule and are 0-3 at home. Teams that beat them have a combined total of 1 loss and Wisconsin is the best team in the west and look like they might get going now so last weeks loss isn’t as bad in my mind as I think Wisc is by far the best in the west. Illinois has also played a tough schedule so we can look at stats in comparing this game. Walters coached at Illinois so he will be familiar with the roster. Purdue also got 1 more day of rest for this one. I think Card has been pretty good so far and he is mobile. Turnovers have killed Purdue the last 2 weeks (7 total) and against Syr they allowed the QB to run for 195 yds as well which cost them a game they probably should have won. Something is off with Illinois. They are struggling on the off line and on def. Who would guess that Illinois has only rushed for 7 yds more per game than Purdue so far and Purdue has been a better run def? Altmeyer has not been very good – at times he looks ok but really struggles when pressured. Illinois has given up the most ypg in the big 10 so far (Purdue is second to last).
Let’s get in to the main advantage in this game. I mentioned Altmeyer under pressure – his QBR is 44 under pressure and 43 when blitzed. Purdue applies a lot of pressure and blitzes over 50% of the time. He has thrown 7 picks (most in conf) and the Purdue def has 5 as a team so far. Illinois has the worst pass block rating in the big ten at 44.1 – this is awful. Purdue has 11 sacks so far. I think Purdue matches up well on this side of the ball.
Illinois has given up the most pass plays over 10 yds in the conf (42) and Purdue on off has the second most in conf (44). Illinois lost key players off their def and especially in the secondary – they are not the same so Purdue should have success. Purdue was 8-4 at home the past 2 years so being 0-3 so far is unlike them. I think they have the better QB and are slightly better as a team and are at home. Walters will know the weaknesses of the Illinois def and his def scheme will apply a lot of pressure. I look for Purdue to get a much needed win at home.
Prediction: Purdue by 7
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4* Hou – Texas Tech Over 52
Won’t do a compete write up since I covered most of it above. Both teams will play with tempo. I expect TT to at least be in the mid 30s and I believe they will be over 40. Hou will be good enough to get some points as the TT defense is average. Surprised this total is this low so I like it to go over.
Prediction: 73 pts
2* Purdue -1
Purdue has played a tough schedule and are 0-3 at home. Teams that beat them have a combined total of 1 loss and Wisconsin is the best team in the west and look like they might get going now so last weeks loss isn’t as bad in my mind as I think Wisc is by far the best in the west. Illinois has also played a tough schedule so we can look at stats in comparing this game. Walters coached at Illinois so he will be familiar with the roster. Purdue also got 1 more day of rest for this one. I think Card has been pretty good so far and he is mobile. Turnovers have killed Purdue the last 2 weeks (7 total) and against Syr they allowed the QB to run for 195 yds as well which cost them a game they probably should have won. Something is off with Illinois. They are struggling on the off line and on def. Who would guess that Illinois has only rushed for 7 yds more per game than Purdue so far and Purdue has been a better run def? Altmeyer has not been very good – at times he looks ok but really struggles when pressured. Illinois has given up the most ypg in the big 10 so far (Purdue is second to last).
Let’s get in to the main advantage in this game. I mentioned Altmeyer under pressure – his QBR is 44 under pressure and 43 when blitzed. Purdue applies a lot of pressure and blitzes over 50% of the time. He has thrown 7 picks (most in conf) and the Purdue def has 5 as a team so far. Illinois has the worst pass block rating in the big ten at 44.1 – this is awful. Purdue has 11 sacks so far. I think Purdue matches up well on this side of the ball.
Illinois has given up the most pass plays over 10 yds in the conf (42) and Purdue on off has the second most in conf (44). Illinois lost key players off their def and especially in the secondary – they are not the same so Purdue should have success. Purdue was 8-4 at home the past 2 years so being 0-3 so far is unlike them. I think they have the better QB and are slightly better as a team and are at home. Walters will know the weaknesses of the Illinois def and his def scheme will apply a lot of pressure. I look for Purdue to get a much needed win at home.
A&M has a lot of talent on their team. We heard this a lot last year and they laid an egg. This year they return almost the entire team and have the experience of last year to help motivate them. They were young last year so this year were a little under the radar – especially after the loss to a very good Miami team. I thought last week was going to be the start of this team playing well and they looked good against Auburn. I am fine with Johnson at QB – he actually looked better last week and has been around awhile. This game also being at a neutral site helps. A&M is throwing for over 300 ypg and their defense has been good except for a few plays against Miami. Arkansas lost a lot from last year but still have Jefferson at QB. I thought he played well last week against a very good LSU team. Both teams defend the run well and apply pressure on the QB. A&M has 13 sacks on the year (Ark 14). A&M has only given up 6 sacks on year and are throwing for over 300 ypg. Arkansas has only gained over 4 ypc running the ball in 1 game this year (over 4 in 9 of 13 games last year). I don’t think they are as strong on offense this year as they are almost 90 ypg less than last year so far and have only played 1 conf game (lost top 4 receivers)
I look for A&M to contain the running game as they are an athletic defense. A&M has given up the least amount of pass plays over 10 yds in the SEC (only 23). I think they will be able to contain the run and create some negative plays (second in SEC in TFL with 34). I like Petrino as the off coordinator and I trust their passing game more than Arkansas as I think both teams will defend the run well. I think all that talent is starting to kick in for A&M and look for them to build off of last week and start playing like people expected last year.
Prediction: Texas A&M by 12
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2* Texas A&M -6.5
A&M has a lot of talent on their team. We heard this a lot last year and they laid an egg. This year they return almost the entire team and have the experience of last year to help motivate them. They were young last year so this year were a little under the radar – especially after the loss to a very good Miami team. I thought last week was going to be the start of this team playing well and they looked good against Auburn. I am fine with Johnson at QB – he actually looked better last week and has been around awhile. This game also being at a neutral site helps. A&M is throwing for over 300 ypg and their defense has been good except for a few plays against Miami. Arkansas lost a lot from last year but still have Jefferson at QB. I thought he played well last week against a very good LSU team. Both teams defend the run well and apply pressure on the QB. A&M has 13 sacks on the year (Ark 14). A&M has only given up 6 sacks on year and are throwing for over 300 ypg. Arkansas has only gained over 4 ypc running the ball in 1 game this year (over 4 in 9 of 13 games last year). I don’t think they are as strong on offense this year as they are almost 90 ypg less than last year so far and have only played 1 conf game (lost top 4 receivers)
I look for A&M to contain the running game as they are an athletic defense. A&M has given up the least amount of pass plays over 10 yds in the SEC (only 23). I think they will be able to contain the run and create some negative plays (second in SEC in TFL with 34). I like Petrino as the off coordinator and I trust their passing game more than Arkansas as I think both teams will defend the run well. I think all that talent is starting to kick in for A&M and look for them to build off of last week and start playing like people expected last year.
its a good question. Mcguire said after the game he was a little banged up but will be good to go next week. I watched the end of that game and didn't notice anything. He scrambled on the second to last series and he looked fine in the pocket on the last series. Everything I have read from Texas Tech doesn't indicate any issue with him so I am assuming he will be ok. Maybe they mix Strong in some this week. I play the game as if he is fine. If anyone thinks there is risk there I would recommend waiting till Saturday to place. The line has dropped so maybe some are thinking he isn't 100% or they are just betting because Shough is out -not sure. Obviously if he gets hurt the game is at risk. He was off in the game - I think the weather impacted him. I think a week of practice with the one's will help.
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@Boa33
its a good question. Mcguire said after the game he was a little banged up but will be good to go next week. I watched the end of that game and didn't notice anything. He scrambled on the second to last series and he looked fine in the pocket on the last series. Everything I have read from Texas Tech doesn't indicate any issue with him so I am assuming he will be ok. Maybe they mix Strong in some this week. I play the game as if he is fine. If anyone thinks there is risk there I would recommend waiting till Saturday to place. The line has dropped so maybe some are thinking he isn't 100% or they are just betting because Shough is out -not sure. Obviously if he gets hurt the game is at risk. He was off in the game - I think the weather impacted him. I think a week of practice with the one's will help.
Week 4 Recap: Went 6-1 and plus 17.4 stars. Was a good week – both 4 star plays on GT and A&M were great plays and covered by more than a td. The only win that was questionable was Oklahoma. I don’t think that was a good bet either way and it could have lost but glad I got it at 13.5. The only loss - SMU -looked good in FH but TCU dominated the third qtr and TCU was the right side in that one. Total for the season now is 17-6 and plus 32.9 stars.
Good work!
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Quote Originally Posted by CFBLMONSTER:
Week 4 Recap: Went 6-1 and plus 17.4 stars. Was a good week – both 4 star plays on GT and A&M were great plays and covered by more than a td. The only win that was questionable was Oklahoma. I don’t think that was a good bet either way and it could have lost but glad I got it at 13.5. The only loss - SMU -looked good in FH but TCU dominated the third qtr and TCU was the right side in that one. Total for the season now is 17-6 and plus 32.9 stars.
Just found you Monster Man, and plan to hang around. SEC guy here so know little about the nuances of Big 12, but your write ups seem sound. Good luck!!
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Just found you Monster Man, and plan to hang around. SEC guy here so know little about the nuances of Big 12, but your write ups seem sound. Good luck!!
I believe Michigan is the best team in the big ten and people are sleeping on them because of the schedule. Michigan came off a playoff run last year and has coasted the first 4 games – just getting through to get ready for the conference. After the long pass last week against Rutgers they held them to 188 yds - Rutgers is better than Neb. Lets look at some numbers – last year Michigan played 10 big ten games and won 7 of them by more than 20 pts. They are 5-1-2 ATS against the west the past 2 years. This is their first road game but this is a veteran squad who returns 15 starters so that won’t impact them and I believe will actually motivate them. Last 2 years they have started with 4 home games and went on the road against West opponents and won both games easily. They are 7-2-1 ATS on the road the past 2 years so being on the road won't phase them. They have a massive advantage at the line of scrimmage in this one on both sides of the ball.
Nebraska is the worst passing offense in the big ten (yes worse than Iowa). They have lost 2 of their running backs to injury and Haarberg left last game injured and is banged up along with Sims. They are one dimensional and will go against an outstanding def – that just won’t work. Neb has a 44 pass block rating (worst in big ten) and 54 run block rating – both are bad.
Lets look at the Neb def that is solid and probably the reason people are taking them. First – Reimer is most likely out – that is a key loss at LB. They played a terrible Minn off, were solid in one half against a 1 dimensional Col team that made adjustments and picked them apart in second half, were dominant against a terrible NI offense that scored 11 pts against Southern Illinois and 14 against Tulsa, and played well against a FAU team with their backup QB. They have 14 sacks – 8 were against Col – they blitzed over 40% against Col and NI – now they go against one of the best off lines in the nation who simply doesn’t give up sacks (only 3 this year and only 17 last season) and a QB that has a QBR over 100 this year and last year against the blitz. They blitz him he will burn them and if they don’t they aren’t good enough to get to him and he will have all day. Mich is balanced and should control the line of scrimmage in this one.
After the top 4 teams in the big ten the rest fall off a cliff in terms of how good they are and the West is really bad. Only Wisc can hang with the top 3. No doubt that Neb will have a sell out crowd that is jacked up for this one. I believe this will motivate Michigan and you will see more of the true Mich team this week. I can’t see a team that can’t pass hanging with a stellar defense that doesn’t get run on. Neb def is solid but a bit overrated because of who they played and they aren’t ready to handle a balanced off like Michigan. Neb might hang for a quarter but I expect Michigan to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides in this one and I think they will win easily.
Prediction: Mich by 27
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Adding Michigan
2* Michigan -17
I believe Michigan is the best team in the big ten and people are sleeping on them because of the schedule. Michigan came off a playoff run last year and has coasted the first 4 games – just getting through to get ready for the conference. After the long pass last week against Rutgers they held them to 188 yds - Rutgers is better than Neb. Lets look at some numbers – last year Michigan played 10 big ten games and won 7 of them by more than 20 pts. They are 5-1-2 ATS against the west the past 2 years. This is their first road game but this is a veteran squad who returns 15 starters so that won’t impact them and I believe will actually motivate them. Last 2 years they have started with 4 home games and went on the road against West opponents and won both games easily. They are 7-2-1 ATS on the road the past 2 years so being on the road won't phase them. They have a massive advantage at the line of scrimmage in this one on both sides of the ball.
Nebraska is the worst passing offense in the big ten (yes worse than Iowa). They have lost 2 of their running backs to injury and Haarberg left last game injured and is banged up along with Sims. They are one dimensional and will go against an outstanding def – that just won’t work. Neb has a 44 pass block rating (worst in big ten) and 54 run block rating – both are bad.
Lets look at the Neb def that is solid and probably the reason people are taking them. First – Reimer is most likely out – that is a key loss at LB. They played a terrible Minn off, were solid in one half against a 1 dimensional Col team that made adjustments and picked them apart in second half, were dominant against a terrible NI offense that scored 11 pts against Southern Illinois and 14 against Tulsa, and played well against a FAU team with their backup QB. They have 14 sacks – 8 were against Col – they blitzed over 40% against Col and NI – now they go against one of the best off lines in the nation who simply doesn’t give up sacks (only 3 this year and only 17 last season) and a QB that has a QBR over 100 this year and last year against the blitz. They blitz him he will burn them and if they don’t they aren’t good enough to get to him and he will have all day. Mich is balanced and should control the line of scrimmage in this one.
After the top 4 teams in the big ten the rest fall off a cliff in terms of how good they are and the West is really bad. Only Wisc can hang with the top 3. No doubt that Neb will have a sell out crowd that is jacked up for this one. I believe this will motivate Michigan and you will see more of the true Mich team this week. I can’t see a team that can’t pass hanging with a stellar defense that doesn’t get run on. Neb def is solid but a bit overrated because of who they played and they aren’t ready to handle a balanced off like Michigan. Neb might hang for a quarter but I expect Michigan to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides in this one and I think they will win easily.
One last point on Mich - in their first 3 games they scored a total of 3 pts in the 4th qtr - they obviously got out to leads and sat on it. Adding another play below - will do write up later
2* IU plus 14.5
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One last point on Mich - in their first 3 games they scored a total of 3 pts in the 4th qtr - they obviously got out to leads and sat on it. Adding another play below - will do write up later
Lordy! You obviously put a lot of time & effort into your thread with these "thought analyses/writeups" for the purview of the forum, and are to be commended Just about everyone enjoys reading the analysis/thoughts that go into a given pick.
Worth a read for anyone here, imo. I've bookmarked this thread
BOL with your bets this week!
Fubah2
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@CFBLMONSTER
Lordy! You obviously put a lot of time & effort into your thread with these "thought analyses/writeups" for the purview of the forum, and are to be commended Just about everyone enjoys reading the analysis/thoughts that go into a given pick.
Worth a read for anyone here, imo. I've bookmarked this thread
2* IU +14.5 IU is playing their first true road game with a first year starting QB. IU has played Maryland tight the past 2 years. Looking at stats MD looks good as they lead the big ten in ypg and have not had a close game in terms of the score. I think this is a look ahead spot for MD with Ohio St on deck. I also don’t think this environment will be very hostile so the first true road start for Jackson isn’t as bad as going to some other places.
Lets start with IU – against FBS teams their pass def has been very good – 58% comp and a 1-5 ratio and that includes games against Louisville & Ohio St who both are good offensively. Both safeties have been very good which is important for this game. IU looked really good in the second half against Louisville – Jackson is talented and looked like he will develop into a solid QB. Last week – not good – outgained by almost 200 yds and gave up 263 yds rushing. I will explain why it isn’t as bad as it looks – keep in mind this still is a pathetic performance by them. IU had at least 4 drops – on second possession they dropped a wide open pass that would have been a TD then 2 possessions later got stopped at the 1. This game easily could have been 21-0 and a way diff outcome. The 263 yds rushing – 141 were by the QB on scrambles mainly and 70 on 1 run late in 4 so it wasn’t like Akron just ran it down their throats plus Irons did make some good plays in the game. MD will not run Taulia and risk injury – he only has 11 rushes for 53 yds and he won’t break that out until they need it or maybe a game against a team like Ohio St. IU also ran too much – 36 runs to 24 passes. IU can’t run – their success against Louisville was passing and I expect them to get back to throwing more this week. MD lost their whole def line from last year and both their corners from last year are starting in the NFL – their def isn’t that great so IU should be able to have some success.
MD has been down 14-0 in their last 2 home games. The UVA game was 21-14 to start the fourth and UVA has a 311-288 yd adv at that point (score includes a kick ret by MD). UVA threw a pick in endzone as they were trying to tie it a then the game snowballed as they started turning it over and probably deflated their def. They also had a wide open pass dropped in the third that would have put them inside the 10 – so that score is very misleading. Last week – Mich St made a lot of mistakes but did outgain MD 376-362. Sec possession when down 7-0 Mich St was stopped around the 1 on fourth down. They had 5 turnovers and still almost got back into the game – Kim missed a wide open TD pass in that game as well. MD lost a lot from last year – Taulia is a very good QB and is the diff for them but I am not sold on them being that great and I think they were better last year.
MD has 11 takeaways with 7 by int – so they have done well in this area so far and now do face a young QB. I expect IU to throw more in this game and take the approach they took in the sec half against Louisville. I don’t think MD is very good on the def line and despite having a poor pass protection grade IU had only given up 5 sacks this year. If they do get down you will have a back door chance – with Ohio St on deck MD will take it easy if they get up. I think IU will bring more energy to this game and hang around against a decent MD team that is peeking ahead.
Prediction: MD by 7
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2* IU +14.5 IU is playing their first true road game with a first year starting QB. IU has played Maryland tight the past 2 years. Looking at stats MD looks good as they lead the big ten in ypg and have not had a close game in terms of the score. I think this is a look ahead spot for MD with Ohio St on deck. I also don’t think this environment will be very hostile so the first true road start for Jackson isn’t as bad as going to some other places.
Lets start with IU – against FBS teams their pass def has been very good – 58% comp and a 1-5 ratio and that includes games against Louisville & Ohio St who both are good offensively. Both safeties have been very good which is important for this game. IU looked really good in the second half against Louisville – Jackson is talented and looked like he will develop into a solid QB. Last week – not good – outgained by almost 200 yds and gave up 263 yds rushing. I will explain why it isn’t as bad as it looks – keep in mind this still is a pathetic performance by them. IU had at least 4 drops – on second possession they dropped a wide open pass that would have been a TD then 2 possessions later got stopped at the 1. This game easily could have been 21-0 and a way diff outcome. The 263 yds rushing – 141 were by the QB on scrambles mainly and 70 on 1 run late in 4 so it wasn’t like Akron just ran it down their throats plus Irons did make some good plays in the game. MD will not run Taulia and risk injury – he only has 11 rushes for 53 yds and he won’t break that out until they need it or maybe a game against a team like Ohio St. IU also ran too much – 36 runs to 24 passes. IU can’t run – their success against Louisville was passing and I expect them to get back to throwing more this week. MD lost their whole def line from last year and both their corners from last year are starting in the NFL – their def isn’t that great so IU should be able to have some success.
MD has been down 14-0 in their last 2 home games. The UVA game was 21-14 to start the fourth and UVA has a 311-288 yd adv at that point (score includes a kick ret by MD). UVA threw a pick in endzone as they were trying to tie it a then the game snowballed as they started turning it over and probably deflated their def. They also had a wide open pass dropped in the third that would have put them inside the 10 – so that score is very misleading. Last week – Mich St made a lot of mistakes but did outgain MD 376-362. Sec possession when down 7-0 Mich St was stopped around the 1 on fourth down. They had 5 turnovers and still almost got back into the game – Kim missed a wide open TD pass in that game as well. MD lost a lot from last year – Taulia is a very good QB and is the diff for them but I am not sold on them being that great and I think they were better last year.
MD has 11 takeaways with 7 by int – so they have done well in this area so far and now do face a young QB. I expect IU to throw more in this game and take the approach they took in the sec half against Louisville. I don’t think MD is very good on the def line and despite having a poor pass protection grade IU had only given up 5 sacks this year. If they do get down you will have a back door chance – with Ohio St on deck MD will take it easy if they get up. I think IU will bring more energy to this game and hang around against a decent MD team that is peeking ahead.
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