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Week 5 write ups

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by McGuire87:

Can't sleep so here is my last one. Enjoy it. Working hard over here so you guys can make $ off me. 

Next game: Northwestern at Penn State (-10.5)
Power ratings: Northwestern (97th, 7.9) at Penn State (38th, -9) = projected spread of -20. 

I've been trying to fade NW when I can this year. Just don't like the player's lawsuit + attitude in terms of a football perspective. The coaching staff + players obviously don't see eye2eye. It has shown on the field. 

Got crushed by California, and got outplayed LW vs. Western Illinois. WIU outgained NW by 93 yards. NW QB Siemian banged up still only 4.7 ypa. WIU #1 RB rushed for 4.2 ypc ... no excuses for that. NW failed to cover WIU, but if WIU didn't lose 3 fumbles they probably win that game outright. 

In what I read, Siemian didn't sound confident. Said team was far from a finished product. Not exactly confidence-inspiring for this teammates because they all suck obv. 

Penn State blew out NW but had an epically bad offensive performance vs. Rutgers (and I had Penn STate -3.5 they won by 3 pts forced 5 TO's grrrr). I don't think PSU needs much offense on Saturday. The defense is still top notch so they don't need much offensive output to cover NW. 

Penn State has #1 rush D in nation at 1.8 ypc. NW's bread and butter is their defense they are solid, but points are going to be hard to come by. 

Northwestern's looks banged up with injuries, so if anybody knows anything about whether their key players are injured please speak up I am just too tired to look into it right now. 

I'm not a big fan of series history or what has happened in past years, but Penn State is 5-0 ATS vs. NW in last 5 dating back to 2006. 

After PSU failed to score more than 13 pts vs. Rutgers, I'm not going to push this game as a 5 unit lock or anything, but I do think Penn State is worth 1-2 units here at -10.5. NW is just god awful + their players don't want to win, they want to get paid. 

All the #s say to not be worried about NW here, so why should we be? 


Hope your capping of these games pans out because I'm tailin a few !! Thx for the hard work bro !! Keep posting them if possible ? 
Here is injury list to NW ...
Northwestern
Date Pos Player Injury Status
09/23/14 LB Collin Ellis Concussion "?" Saturday vs. Penn State
09/23/14 S Ibraheim Campbell Lower Body "?" Saturday vs. Penn State
09/21/14 DL C.J. Robbins Suspension "?" Saturday vs. Penn State
09/21/14 WR Tony Jones Leg "?" Saturday vs. Penn State
09/21/14 DL Xavier Washington Undisclosed "?" Saturday vs. Penn State
08/27/14 DL Sean McEvilly Foot out for season
08/13/14 WR Christian Jones Knee out for season

 
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Posted: #27
Wow. Amazing write ups and a lot of leg work. Good luck this weekend. Like you, I read a lot but not post alot. This thread is PRECISELY why i come on here to read though. I have a feeling come Sunday morning, there's gonna be alot of talk about this thread. Preeshate you takin the time.
 
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Posted: #28
Yes. I like threads with information as opposed to just posting the two teams playing and putting in BOLD the team you like. And of course after you bold the team you like you must insert the shaking hands.
 
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Posted: #29
Great write-ups McGuire.  Mind if I ask what your CFB ATS record is 2014?  ....
 
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Posted: #30
Wade Freebeck played decent in last game vs. SC 8.4 ypa
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:

Great write-ups McGuire.  Mind if I ask what your CFB ATS record is 2014?  ....

Not the greatest mainly because I have been playing too many games. But my multi-unit big bets have been killes. I'm up 20 units on the year. Have had some unlucky games like you guys too but have had some head scratchers. 

I do all of my damage though this time of year once I have all of my power ratings sorted out and a better feel for teams. But yeah my ATS record hasn't been great been making some stupid mistakes. Limiting my picks to 6-7 games though like the ones in this thread so if I do that I expect to crush. 
 
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Posted: #32
Next up: WKU at Navy (-7)
Power ratings: WKU (76th, 4.2) at Navy (66th, 1.4) = projected spread of -6

Navy is 2-1 ATS on the year and have clearly caught Vegas attention. Navy's option O is 17th in rush ypc + 2nd in total rush as you would expect. They are also top 14 in runs of 30+ yards. 

WKU doesn't have a very good rush D. 75th ypc def @ 4.1/clip. 

This all adds up to an easy Navy cover right? Not necessarilly. Senior QB Brad Daugthy is playing very well this season. 26th in nation in ypa and 15th in comp %. So if you want to take Navy, just know you are going up against an EXTREMELY efficient QB who is on fire this season. Navy has 86th ypa def. Have given 78%+ passes in 2 of 4 games this year. Defense likely to get shredded. 

LY WKU impressively held Navy to 2.6 ypc + 2 INTs. However, WKU lost their entire LB corps so take that game with a grain of salt. Ain't happenin' again. 

It all comes down to the # for me. Both sides have a mediocre defense, both sides have productive offenses. I'm just not comfortable with the #. Wish it was higher or lower to take either side, but at 7 there is just too much risk here that is a near-perfect spread. 

I'm not a totals bettor because I'm bad at those, but I would encourage you to research that #, I'm obviously an over lean but I will be putting 0 units on the over. 

Passssss
 
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Posted: #33
Love your analysis. Like you I love talking sports. When you break it down it gives insight on whats going on with each team. Thanks for your work!  
“You don’t get what you hope for, you get what you work for!”
 
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Posted: #34
WKU QB named Brandon Doughty sorry
 
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Posted: #35
Next game: UNC at Clemson (-14.5) 
Power ratings: UNC (68th, 2.0) at Clemson (28th, -14) = projected spread of -19

I was ALL OVER East Carolina -2 last week like a fat kid at a Vegas buffett. Unfortunately, the blow out win delegitimized UNC now and everyone knows they had no business being a top 25 AP team. Ridiculous. 

North Carolina just isn't good and at #68 I could be overrating them...however, this is a bad spot for us with ECU hanging 70 on their defense. The D-Coord for UNC will make their defense feel pain in practice this week. 

Before the ECU bloodbath, UNC gave up 8.7 ypa, 4.8 ypc and 509 total yards to SDSU. They were also not impressive against Liberty. Maybe coaching + kick in the butt can make their D play better, but maybe not. 

QB Marquise Williams for UNC has been horrible all year. 5.1 ypa + 1 INT vs. a good ECU defense. Solid running game for UNC but nothing special. Even if UNC is better on defense, their offense will be mediocre...can't fix that. 

Good news is Clemson is going to Fresh QB Deshaun Watson who was excellent vs. FSU --> 68% + 9.5 ypa. Still, he's a freshman so who knows. 

Clemson struggled to run the ball vs. UGA and FSU. UNC does have #113 ypc def in nation...so this isn't UGA/FSU. 

My power ratings slightly favor Clemson in this spot, but after UNC got trampbled I think they will play better on defense in a rivalry game. Lean Clemson, but I won't be playing this game. Bad spot where weird things happen in CFB, and Clemson has to cover by 15 points which isn't easy. Pass

 
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Posted: #36
Next game: Colorado State at Boston College (-7)
Power ratings: Colorado State (87th, 6.4) at Boston College (75th, 4.0) = projected spread of -5.5

After a predicted SU win vs. Colorado in W1, CSU followed that up with a cover vs. UC Davis. I have concerns though with CSU. Allowed 7.4 ypc to UCDavis top 2 RBs.  Jay Ajayi of Boise gashed them for 
6.6 ypc + QB 5.0 ypc. Even #1 RB of Colorado 4.3 ypc + QB 6.7 ypc. 

Everyone can run on Colorado State, this matters because all BC does is run the ball. BC #5 in total rush and #12 in rush ypc. 

So BC is going to get theirs in this game esp. being @ home. 

BC has #64 ypa def, but #36 ypc def. QB Garrett Grayson has been very good for CSU this year 8.9 ypa/8td/2 int. Heard some NFL scouts think he is a sleeper. 

Lean to BC -7 here, but just don't have faith in their defense and Grayson scares me. This isn't USC at night, and my analysis of BC says they are slightly overrated right now. They could also blow out CSU, I'm just not comfortable laying the points.

Pass

 
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Posted: #37
Next game: Appalachain State at Georgia Southern (-19.5)
Power ratings: App State (124th, 12.8) at Southern (73rd, 3.5) = projected spread of -12.5. 

All the 'cappers are high on Southern now as you should be. They haven't backed down to legit D1 comp. Their triple option is efficient and explosive and has put up some massive #s I don't need to get into. 

App State has 102nd ypc defense so I think suffice to say we would all be shocked if Southern didn't have a big day offensively at home. Add in this is a Thursday night game so App State has less time to prepare, and it isn't like Southern will change up what they are doing vs. App?

App State's kicking game is atrocious. ASU K Zach Matics missed from 42 + 43 FG last week, had 36 yd blocked + PAT block. He has a strong leg reportedly, but might be inaccurate + kick the ball low. Unsure of wind vs. Southern Miss last week. 

Everyone is talking about Southern's offense, but their defense is concerning. Allowed 348 rush yds vs. a GA Tech offense they see every day in practice. South Alabama's top 4 RBs avg. 4.5 ypc. NC State also 4.9 ypc. 

So while Southerns' offense will put up points, I think they will likely give up some points too. RB Marcus Cox + QB Tyler Lamb both productive last week vs. bad South Miss. 

Lean to taking the points here with App State, but this cover could come down to Matics' leg + Southern defense on a Thursday night. 

Too many factors here I'm unsure of + weird Thurs night game. 

Looking ahead, Southerns' schedule is horrible so they will be difficult to bet against: @ NexMexState, vs. Idaho, @ GA State, vs. Troy is their next 4 after App. 
 
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Posted: #38
Nice write ups - agree on all of your picks except I've got Duke on the ML, and we'll see how that goes. 
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Peewee2820:

Yes. I like threads with information as opposed to just posting the two teams playing and putting in BOLD the team you like. And of course after you bold the team you like you must insert the shaking hands.



 
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Posted: #40
Great post... thanks 
 
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Posted: #41
Next game: UCLA (-4) at Arizona State
Power ratings: UCLA (29th, -13.5) at Arizona State (45th, -5.5) = projected spread of -5

QB Taylor Kelly was a major blow to ASU. Backup Michael Bercovici takes center stage, and there have been a ton of creampuff newspaper articles written about him like he's the second coming of Peyton Manning. His high school scouting report says he has a strong arm, but he severely lacks experience. I love fading QBs who didn't play much in high school (like Houston's John O'Korn), and Bercovici has done nothing but hold a clipboard at ASU. He also had only one scholly offer based on my research which is a huge red flag. Maybe I'm over analyzing, but maybe I'm not. 

I don't need to tell you guys about what a stud RB DJ Foster is. He should have a good day all the stats I read on UCLA point to an average defense. 

Star QB Brett Hundley injured vs. Texas and has been limited in practice this week. Can't bet this game until we know who is starting for UCLA - period. Backup Jerry Neuheisel only 5.9 ypa vs. Texas + not a recruited HS prospect. If Neuheisel plays, ASU will just stack the box and stop the run. So you could be laying 4 points on the road with a mediocre backup. In no universe is that a smart bet. What if Hundley plays hurt and has limited production? 

Arizona State defense was extremely disappointing vs. Colorado. While I do chalk that ASU non-cover to the QB injury, I just overrated their defense. Sun Devils gave up 7.8 yards per carry + 545 total yards + 8/18 3rd down to COLORADO one of the worst teams in the Big 5 conferences. I don't care if it is on the road that's just flat out embarrasing. While I am not high on UCLA, their offense will be better in a Thursday night game at home than Colorado. 

ASU also gave up 11.8 ypa (130 total) + 3.6 ypc to New Mexico. 

I don't like either side, and I'm sorry but the AP Top 25 will put money in our pockets forever because neither of these teams deserve to sniff the top 25 at this point. 

This spread just doesn't give either side with much room to work with. If Hundley plays, I'm a very very small UCLA lean. Just know you are going against DJ Foster on national TV. I'll pass for now. 
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by consultant22:

Nice write ups - agree on all of your picks except I've got Duke on the ML, and we'll see how that goes. 

LMAO, if I ever said that after placing a wager I would expect to lose....
 
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Posted: #43
Next game: Iowa (-9.5) at Purdue
Power ratings: Iowa (63rd, 0.5) at Purdue (91st, 7.2) = projected spread of -4. 

You really have to be the biggest B10 diehard or handicapper to watch this football game. Talk about a snoozefest. Neither team can throw the ball and neither team has athletes at QB or RB to do anything.

Iowa won last week, but got outgained by 124 yards vs. Pitt. Purdue only 7.6 ypa + 4.2 ypc vs. South Ill. 

Lean to Iowa here, but 9.5 is a big # to be giving them on the road. Purdue is bad, but Iowa has to put up points to cover this spread and I'm just not sold on their passing game to do that. My power ratings just say to completely stay away from this game. You might think I'd say slight lean to Purdue, but Purdue is really bad. 

If you want to take Purdue, go back and look at that box score vs. a bad Central Michigan defense: Starting QB with 3.9 ypa + 2 INTs. #1 RB only 2.8 ypc - Mostert also only 3.9 ypc vs. SIU. That's pathetic. Gotta assume Purdue has serious issues on OL and I have barely watched them play this year. 

Pass on this game altogether. Just not worth the hassle. 
 
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Posted: #44
Next game: Arkansas at Texas AM (-8.5)
Power ratings: Arkansas (51st, -2.9) at Texas AM (-26.3) = projected spread of -32

Settle down there guys. I know you just got a money boner off that projected spread based on my powers, but remember games are played on FieldTurf in College Station not message boards!

Arkansas has a lot of hype coming into this game. They destroyed two undersized teams and took advantage by using their NFL-sized OL + powerful RBs. That's what they do. 

Starting QB Brandon Allen for Arkansas only 70 pass atts through 4 games including 5.6 ypa vs. Auburn. 

I was really disappointed with AM's defense vs. Rice as I fully expected their offense to trounce Rice and get stops. AM didn't get the cover because of an average defensive performance. 

Rice 4.4 ypc + 6.6 ypa from starting QB ... I would expect a team that recruits as well as AM to have those numbers around 3.5 ypc + below 6.0 ypa. Disappointing. Needless to say, if Rice can run on AM, what will Arkansas do????

North Ill also in a bad spot last week vs. Arkansas after being in the brutal heat in Vegas the week before. Fell behind 21-0 early and forced to throw the ball to get back into the game. Combined with Arkansas bleeding the clock they comfortably covered. Stupidly, I had NIU in that game but learned my lesson (don't always trust my powers!!!)

Fwiw, A&M last year had 113th ypc defense. They were shockingly bad at 5.4 yards/clip so if any A&M fan wants to weigh in as to why their rush D is so bad feel free I don't get it. 

A&M rush D stats much better this year but included in their stats are Lamar + SMU who are really bad. Held South Car to 3.0 ypc but that was South Car's first game. I don't put too much into that. 

All this said, Kenny Hill is a legit Heisman contender and I expect A&M to put up some serious offensive stats on the board vs. overrated Arkansas defense. 

I'm just not willing to play this game. Too random and a bad matchup for A&M on defense. 

No leanage, just pass altogether. Better games on the board.
 
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Posted: #45
Sorry projected spread in A&M vs. Arkansas supposed to be -26 not 32 ... still doesn't matter just wanted to correct that
 
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Posted: #46
some real good stuff here thanks. I like utah but wash st. has the number one passing offense in the nation....going agains the 41st pass defense. that gives me pause.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by jajknight:

some real good stuff here thanks. I like utah but wash st. has the number one passing offense in the nation....going agains the 41st pass defense. that gives me pause.


Nevada has 73rd ypa def they still beat WSU. If Utah can score vs Mich they can score vs. WSU no prob. Just think this has to do a lot with the Oregon game and that's a total overreaction
 
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Posted: #48
Next game: Fresno State (-5) at New Mexico
Power ratings: Fresno State (103rd, 9.7) at Nex Mexico (114th,  12.5) = projected spread of PICK'EM

Fresno State blew out Southern Utah. Congradulations. The way they are getting bet you would think they won the Super Bowl as 69% of the action is on Fresno. 

To review South Utah they are 0-4 and gave up 389 rushing yards to Fresno ... they also gave up 476 total yards to SE Louisiana + 230 rushing yards to SD State. 

Fresno has had a brutal schedule so far this year, but I don't consider New Mexico a road cupcake like everyone else. They did run for 432 yards vs. a bad NewMexSt team. 

New Mexico has failed to cover this year but I think they could break their cherry vs. a bad Fresno State defense at home. They have scored 32 and 28 pts vs. Fresno in past 2 years...so I would be shocked to see New Mex not score 30+ in this game. 

New Mex QB is questionable but QBs are replaceable in the option offense. I can't really see how anyone could think Fresno State is a top 80 team, which is what they would have to be according to my powers. 

Pass on this game. Why burn money here when I could throw it down on LaTech +32.5????     
 
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Posted: #49
Next game: Missouri at South Carolina (-5.5)
Power ratings: Missouri  (26th, -15) at South Car (14th, -21) = projected spread of -3

Kinda had a feeling the Missouri defense would finally crack last week and it did. They did impressively hold IU to 1-14 on 3rd down ... so how you lose a game holding the team to 7% on 3rd down is beyond me. Missouri struggling to score in 2nd half vs. a good Indiana team pretty much is why they failed to cover. Only 1 turnover ... decent defensive averages ... gave up a 2-play 82 yard TD drive to Indiana that pretty much sank them vs. spread. 

But Missouri is going to score on South Car. East Carolina and Texas AM (comparable schools to Missouri with very good QB play) both had no problems moving the chains. 

This is a tough game to handicap. South Carolina has to put up some serious points on the board vs. Missouri and limit Missouri to FGs not TDs. Just don't see that happening. 

Power ratings just say to stay away from these two teams because it is so close. 

70% of the bets are on South Carolina. Not a smart play to back their defense in this spot with Mizzou coming off a loss. Gonna pass. Would rather put my  at Keeneland on Saturday   
 
 
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Posted: #50
Sorry messing up these spreads ... Projected is -9 in SC/Mizzou game not -3 
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